General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: If Hitler hadn't attacked the USSR, would the USSR have maintained its secret pact with the Nazis? [View all]I've read that book and have met Murphy.
The book is mostly a detailing of what Stalin knew and when he knew it (hence the title). I don't remember Murphy actually saying what this reviewer said, though I haven't read it since it came out.
Stalin was certainly open to the possibility that the German buildup wasn't necessarily intended to be used to invade the USSR in 1941. As I said elsewhere on the thread, he thought it could have been a bluffing maneuver. One piece of disinformation the Germans sent out (I think it's in the Murphy book) was that Hitler wasn't fully in control of the German armed forces and that it was actually his generals that were itching to invade the USSR and Hitler might not be able to stop them.
But it's pretty hard to argue that Stalin believed a man who had openly stated over and over that he wanted to destroy the Soviet Union wasn't eventually going to try to do so. Stalin knew that the USSR would eventually be in the war, it was just a question of when. That was one of the main reasons for the 'Winter War' with Finland. Stalin had browbeaten the Baltic states into allowing Soviet bases and he believed that he could do the same with Finland. The goal was to enhance Soviet defense capabilities in the event of the USSR being drawn into the war. Despite high losses, the Soviets did defeat the Finns. But instead of conquering the whole country, they were content to take the territory they wanted for defense purposes and cut the Finns loose.
Stalin definitely did not trust Hitler. What he believed was that he could trust Hitler not to invade in 1941. That was a fairly reasonable assumption, since the Germans would be at a disadvantage fighting the Brits and the Soviets at the same time. He didnt' think Hitler would hold off out of friendship or loyalty to the pact, he thought he would hold off because it would be a mistake to invade the Soviet Union that year. What he failed to grasp was that he didn't understand Hitler nearly as well as he thought he did. That's not the same thing as trusting him.