General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: #VAAG Race - Multiple Dem sources - "smoking gun" something is up Fairfax Co = 3,000 missing votes [View all]Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Loudoun, Virginia Beach, and Prince William are majority R and smaller.
Arlington County has one absentee precinct, Central Absentee CD: 08, with results: 1,338 R 5,885 D of 7241 total, for 81% D.
Fairfax County has three absentee precincts (3 Congressional districts) with results (so far reported):
##Central Absentee CD: 08 1,101 3,067 of 4,172 = 73.5% D
##Central Absentee CD: 10 2,957 3,825 of 6,795 = 56.3% D
##Central Absentee CD: 11 3,843 7 660 of 11,517 = 66.5% D
There are 133 Counties so the odds this happens in Fairfax County is 1 : 133. Include Arlington and the odds of this happening in a county where this many Dem votes could be stolen is 2 : 133. Factor in the fact that there are three precincts in Fairfax and this happens to the one with the highest Dem vote percent is another 1 : 3 probability. Multiply the probabilities this is coincidence, the result is 1 : 200 probability this is a coincidence.