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strategery blunder

(4,225 posts)
36. This is the way I see it,
Wed Oct 2, 2013, 11:49 PM
Oct 2013

and I should preface this with I am not a lawyer.

The President doesn't want to use the 14th option, but God forbid the House of Representatives allows this fiasco to drag out until the 17th and Obama is faced with "The Government will run completely out of money reserves and borrowing authority in the next 60 seconds."

At this point, I see not one but four options:

1) President says we pay as we go. All government expenses are paid as receipts come in. Honoring the national debt comes before anything else, including national security and defense. There would be enough inflow to keep the national debt serviced, but everything else including essential government services would get hammered. Very, very, very badly. If not eliminated entirely. Massive austerity on a scale not even before seen under Hoover results, we enter the Greater Depression.
2) Call up the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and start printing. I'm not sure to what extent this is even an option because I don't really know if this would involve "borrowing" from the Federal Reserve, and thus breaching the debt ceiling. Cue Weimar Republic hyperinflation.
3) Default. I don't think I need to explain this one.
4) The 14th Option.

By this point, I suspect the President will have very strong public backing/a mandate for Option Number Four. If the President's hand is truly forced literally at the last minute (God forbid), it is the least bad option. Don't get me wrong, it's still a bad option as no one would know if the bonds would later be invalidated and therefore the interest rate would skyrocket, taking the economy crashing down with it. But the other available options, should the Cruz Missile Kamikaze Party force the Union to that point, are even worse. (While Option 2 might superficially seem like an alternative, it will almost certainly lead to hyperinflation, whereas Option 4 at least has a reasonable shot at containing the damage, especially should it later be upheld.)

If it comes to the 14th, the Congress (in practice, the House of Representatives, as the Senate has the grown-ups in that room) then has two options:

1) Ratify the President's actions. The subsequent debt issues are honored, the economy is shaken badly, but it might (eventually) be recoverable if the Republicans self-destruct and leave the grown-ups in charge to clean up the mess.
2) Or they could sue the executive to have the debt ceiling breach declared unconstitutional. This would take a while to work its way up to SCOTUS (at which point I'm sure Wall Street will be ringing up its servants demanding they affirm the 14th in an attempt to salvage the economy, judicial ethics be damned). Horrific economic damage occurs in the meantime, but if the SCOTUS upholds the 14th Option, Republicans self-destruct and responsible adults are left to try to clean up the mess (but it will take much longer than it would if Congress had assented to the 14th in the first place).

The President doesn't want to use the 14th. His authority to do it is untested and tenuous. If the Congress should fail to honor its responsibilities, it is his last option to save the country. The public would support him doing what he must, but would the courts?

He will do what he must. But of course he will hold his cards close to his chest, and deny that he would openly defy the recalcitrant House until the choice becomes either that or allowing the Union to implode.

I don't want to go back to 1860. Why is it come to this, that I even have to contemplate the day being barely more than two weeks away.

Who ever can help... I saw an article on here a day back.. yuiyoshida Oct 2013 #1
Or the President could go ahead... kentuck Oct 2013 #3
'Talking,' NO, highly improper. elleng Oct 2013 #2
Do they talk...? kentuck Oct 2013 #4
Only via the Solicitor General (or another lawyer) and only through channels. longship Oct 2013 #5
Thanks. kentuck Oct 2013 #7
Well, the Solicitor General is the President's advocate through the DOJ. longship Oct 2013 #14
That makes sense. kentuck Oct 2013 #15
I think that would be a really good way to get impeached and removed from office. longship Oct 2013 #16
I don't think they could get two-thirds of the Senate to remove him from office? kentuck Oct 2013 #17
That's what Nixon thought, too. longship Oct 2013 #22
I think most folks agree with you on that point. kentuck Oct 2013 #25
Possibly. But they'd file the case through DOJ. longship Oct 2013 #28
Personally... kentuck Oct 2013 #31
I am with you all the way, kentuck. longship Oct 2013 #33
When there is a 'case and controversy,' yes, elleng Oct 2013 #6
+1 pinboy3niner Oct 2013 #24
The White House has rejected this. former9thward Oct 2013 #8
I think I might ask for a couple of more opinions... kentuck Oct 2013 #9
It was not just two advisers. former9thward Oct 2013 #10
agreed G_j Oct 2013 #11
They do have a credible argument... kentuck Oct 2013 #12
This message was self-deleted by its author lastlib Oct 2013 #13
The US Supreme Court does not do advisory opinions treestar Oct 2013 #18
How did they get Justice Roberts to rule on the constitutionality of the ACA? kentuck Oct 2013 #20
Several states sued to overturn the ACA. Nye Bevan Oct 2013 #21
Who could have standing the challenge the legality of the debt ceiling? treestar Oct 2013 #27
One suggestion I read was holders of credit default swaps. Nye Bevan Oct 2013 #35
Hell no MFrohike Oct 2013 #19
In that case... kentuck Oct 2013 #23
Lots of legal authorities say he could. Then it's up to Congress pnwmom Oct 2013 #26
Thanks! Excellent read! kentuck Oct 2013 #29
I say yes MFrohike Oct 2013 #30
SCOTUS WOULD NOT HAVE ORIGINAL JURISDICTION. djg21 Oct 2013 #32
Thanks! kentuck Oct 2013 #34
This is the way I see it, strategery blunder Oct 2013 #36
This was an excellent post/thread... 2banon Oct 2013 #37
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