3 Daily totals released (Obama is doing quite well in Gallup Tracking) [View all]
Gallup seldom releases individual daily numbers from their track polls, but we know from the WP that that Gallup Daily Tracking poll raw data for Oct 4,5 and 6 was 47-47 each day. (The three days after the debate.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/08/obama-loses-five-point-edge-in-gallup-poll/
Today's 7-day average is 50-45, covering Oct1-Oct7.
We know 4, 5 and 6 are each 47-47.
So the four days October 1, 2, 3 and 7 Obama averaged 52.25.
The tracking poll that included September 30-October 6 was 49-46. So the four days September 30, October 1, 2 and 3 Obama averaged 50.5.
The only day different there is Sept. 30 versus October 7, so Obama probably had a large day in Sunday polling. If I got this right, Oct 7 has to be 7 points higher than Sept 30. It could be a great 7th or a horrible 30th rolling off the average, but since Obama was doing well the first few days of October there probably wasn't a horrible day in the mix. (Someone good with algebra is welcome to find those two values, to the degree they can be calculated.)
Probably all a combination of jobs report and debate fade.
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