General Discussion

BobTheSubgenius

(11,563 posts)

110. I want to say that, first of all, Mr. Veaux is a great thinker and a sort of hero.

Mon Nov 30, 2020, 12:48 PM

Nov 2020

I've never heard ANYONE talk of this, especially in such detail. My question is...where did he come up with those "for every Covid death there are..." numbers?

They are certainly not easy to find, and I, for one, think they should be. And, if true, (not that I have any reason to doubt that) should be shouted from the rooftops, not rising to the surface sporadically and then slipping back into obscurity, which seems to be the case.

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How can a disease with a 1% mortality shut down the United States? Glad you asked. [View all] WillParkinson Nov 2020 OP

k&r for visibility. n/t Laelth Nov 2020 #1

KnR Hekate Nov 2020 #2

K&R!!!! diva77 Nov 2020 #3

Excellent post, but people who are OK with "1% will die" are already lost to us. Girard442 Nov 2020 #4

That's true sometimes Rebl2 Nov 2020 #26

then there's people Locrian Nov 2020 #106

Excellent! Thanks! nt LAS14 Nov 2020 #5

This guy has the right way to look at this complex problem Shermann Nov 2020 #6

Is 1% Even The Right Number? ProfessorGAC Nov 2020 #13

There's a significant problem with the mortality rate. Pacifist Patriot Nov 2020 #24

I Get That ProfessorGAC Nov 2020 #53

I'm sorry, I thought it was exactly the point you were making. Pacifist Patriot Nov 2020 #75

Reboot! ProfessorGAC Nov 2020 #76

I may or may not have had a glass of wine in my hand ... Pacifist Patriot Nov 2020 #108

I Don't Have That Excuse! ProfessorGAC Nov 2020 #115

Johns Hopkins says 2%. albacore Nov 2020 #55

That's probably the Case Fatality Rate. Crunchy Frog Nov 2020 #73

Right now... the "excess deaths" tell us a lot. Over 300,000. Those people died of SOMEthing! nt albacore Dec 2020 #121

Yes, current estimates don't account for either Crunchy Frog Dec 2020 #122

CNN was bandying about an 8X multiplier last week Shermann Nov 2020 #67

It's a harrowing message for those that will hear it. Dagstead Bumwood Nov 2020 #7

'paltry' - 'almost nothing' acc to the Trump family. keithbvadu2 Nov 2020 #30

'paltry' - 'almost nothing' acc to the Trump family. keithbvadu2 Nov 2020 #33

Damn, thought I had started a real reply chain, there. Dagstead Bumwood Nov 2020 #34

yup Skittles Nov 2020 #8

Do 100% of people get infected? DeminPennswoods Nov 2020 #9

there's no way of knowing... stillcool Nov 2020 #11

That is true, it's why DeminPennswoods Nov 2020 #12

you had to go and remind me... stillcool Nov 2020 #20

'any number' - decrease testing and we get better numbers keithbvadu2 Nov 2020 #38

No, but the "herd immunity" folks who want no mitigation efforts... thesquanderer Nov 2020 #18

Not against mitigation, DeminPennswoods Nov 2020 #21

If the facts scare you, sorry. paleotn Nov 2020 #39

What unlikely scenarios are you citing? NickB79 Nov 2020 #85

Explaining what happens if we do nothing kcr Nov 2020 #116

And there is no proof yet Mr.Bill Nov 2020 #35

With no preventive measure, the percent exposed to COVID would likely be very high Martin Eden Nov 2020 #32

Flu vaccine. paleotn Nov 2020 #37

40 to 50M Americans getting flu each year PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2020 #45

True. Hard to tell exactly how many get the flu each year. paleotn Nov 2020 #58

Last estimate I heard was from Angela Merkel. roamer65 Nov 2020 #62

well, if you put it that way stillcool Nov 2020 #10

+1. I feel like the "lifelong health complications" aspect can't be stated enough. meadowlander Nov 2020 #14

Yup. There's news reports of people getting lung transplants after Covid-19 destroyed their lungs. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #54

I will give you a list of what I am left with post Covid as I want people to know how serious this JCMach1 Nov 2020 #15

I'm so sorry birdographer Nov 2020 #22

OMFG. How horrible. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #57

How horrible MustLoveBeagles Nov 2020 #61

JCMach1... roamer65 Nov 2020 #65

I am recovering, but some things will likely be permanent JCMach1 Nov 2020 #79

I'd like to copy and post your post, if you are ok with this. alfredo Nov 2020 #113

Feel free to copy... You can JCMach1 Nov 2020 #117

Thanks alfredo Dec 2020 #120

Just focusing on the mortality rate... paleotn Nov 2020 #16

Author of this viral post is Franklin Veaux, he has updated and added to his original answer. cayugafalls Nov 2020 #17

It's been updated. Here's a link though I'm sure there are other channels mahina Nov 2020 #19

Economic contraction already forecast by some YouTube gurus bucolic_frolic Nov 2020 #23

Could be the worst year for retail on record. paleotn Nov 2020 #40

Wreckless toxic bravado lambchopp59 Nov 2020 #25

Reckless, for sure. nt Wednesdays Nov 2020 #111

I hate the greedy selfish simplistic bs from the right wing JI7 Nov 2020 #27

They don't believe it themselves, I'd think. NT Aussie105 Nov 2020 #42

The stress on hospitals affects people with other medical conditions JI7 Nov 2020 #28

Exactly. Chellee Nov 2020 #77

Very good information! Thank you! liberalla Nov 2020 #29

Not to mention . . . markpkessinger Nov 2020 #31

Since I grew up in Alabama, I tried using U of A football stadium capacity... JustFiveMoreMinutes Nov 2020 #36

Shut down the Unites States? Aussie105 Nov 2020 #41

"Every man for himself!" nt Wednesdays Nov 2020 #112

It's not 1%. Per Johns Hopkins, the US mortality rate has been at 1.7% since July. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #43

+100 & I agree long term effects are disastrous for some! bronxiteforever Nov 2020 #89

But, but herd immunity is the way to go. Let's all get it and let God sort it out. Banging my head Evolve Dammit Nov 2020 #44

God gave us brains, and using brains is indeed both science, and critical thinking. Beartracks Nov 2020 #114

Kicked and bookmarked! smirkymonkey Nov 2020 #46

Those numbers assume that every single person in the country PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2020 #47

KNR niyad Nov 2020 #48

Your numbers have no link except to a "professional writer" former9thward Nov 2020 #49

Here's the link and his sources: SunSeeker Nov 2020 #52

The link has nothing but anecdotal reports. former9thward Nov 2020 #60

OFFS, they're not just anecdotal reports. He cited studies, with links to those studies. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #63

Here is a guy who had to have a double lung transplant from the flu. former9thward Nov 2020 #66

Your article says he developed ARDS. Your flu analogy is dead wrong. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #68

Ask me in five or ten years about long term effects. former9thward Nov 2020 #71

What a ludicrous thing to say. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #74

BTW - Here's the link, with his sources. It would be great if you added it to the OP for folks. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #50

I'd take his compilation as one possibility Shermann Nov 2020 #82

Consider it done WillParkinson Nov 2020 #119

Hard to argue with those kind of numbers. FailureToCommunicate Nov 2020 #51

Years from now people will still be blaming the orange moron. And they'll be 100% correct. 634-5789 Nov 2020 #56

Bookmarking. Delphinus Nov 2020 #59

This virus still has a good chance of spreading even after vaccines are administered. roamer65 Nov 2020 #64

Actions by the GOP have killed and maimed people. Hermit-The-Prog Nov 2020 #69

Does this model include other deaths that occur .. jb5150 Nov 2020 #70

Excellent question - I'll ask Franklin Veaux on Quora. If there's a response I'll post it. GoneOffShore Nov 2020 #99

I think someone once did economic analysis of the effect of WWI deaths on Britain. Ford_Prefect Nov 2020 #72

A 1% death rate is huge! DBoon Nov 2020 #80

Especially appreciate the Vietnam combat statistic. BarbD Nov 2020 #91

does anyoen have a link to this DonCoquixote Nov 2020 #78

Here: SunSeeker Nov 2020 #83

K&R for the post and the discussion. crickets Nov 2020 #81

And, it's not written in stone that the death rate will stay at 1%. This is a new virus. Yavin4 Nov 2020 #84

74 million Americans disagree with Democrats' approach to handling the virus WSHazel Nov 2020 #86

So, the author is assuming that Trump and his Progressive dog Nov 2020 #87

I' ve seen this several times The Mouth Nov 2020 #88

Kick and recommend for visibility bronxiteforever Nov 2020 #90

+1 chwaliszewski Nov 2020 #92

I can't see anything in the OP wnylib Nov 2020 #93

Here's the link to the Franklin Veaux post that is pictured in the OP: SunSeeker Nov 2020 #94

Thanks. It says what I've been wnylib Nov 2020 #95

Yes, we've already more than doubled the 116k US death total of the 1958 flu pandemic. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #97

I think there were some long term wnylib Nov 2020 #100

It should never have been called the Spanish flu. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #101

True. But it sounds like the Spanish flu wnylib Nov 2020 #102

Someone posted this awhile ago. a la izquierda Nov 2020 #96

Here's the link to Franklin Veaux's post, which he edited on 11/10/20 to add his sources. SunSeeker Nov 2020 #98

Well aware that COVID doesn't just kill. a la izquierda Nov 2020 #103

Add all the deaths due to hospital over-crowding and all the family suffering! Brainfodder Nov 2020 #104

KnR...nt. N_E_1 for Tennis Nov 2020 #105

Yes exactly PCIntern Nov 2020 #107

then consider the rate is 2%. gibraltar72 Nov 2020 #109

I want to say that, first of all, Mr. Veaux is a great thinker and a sort of hero. BobTheSubgenius Nov 2020 #110

Way too complicated for Cult45 ers. nt. SayItLoud Nov 2020 #118