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Maybe I_UndergroundPanther Nov 2020 #1
Especially if he is in the hospital before the run-off. nt Boogiemack Nov 2020 #32
Did you forget the filibuster? Frasier Balzov Nov 2020 #2
What do you mean the chances he can retain the filibuster are slim? tritsofme Nov 2020 #3
Your maths are off. Just because there is a 25% chance of us winning both Celerity Nov 2020 #4
If you start with assumption there's a 25% chance of winning both, that typically implies each is a mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #7
That is not how probability works in multivariate calculations Celerity Nov 2020 #10
Okay, but if you are going to reject the 50%, then you should also reject the 25% ... mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #12
I do not care about coin flips. The odds of winning one seat Celerity Nov 2020 #15
I was just confused why you seemed to accept 25% as the likelihood of winning both mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #18
If the probability we win both races is 25%, then unblock Nov 2020 #20
There are enough correlated variables to ensure a likelihood of far Celerity Nov 2020 #21
It all makes much more sense now that you edited post #4 unblock Nov 2020 #24
The point I'm making here is that assuming there is no correlation between the two, kurtcagle Nov 2020 #29
Fair enough Celerity Nov 2020 #30
This is definitely NOT random probability Rstrstx Nov 2020 #16
I think what was meant was a 50% chance of exactly one or the other democrat winning unblock Nov 2020 #11
I like how you think UB ... mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #13
It doesn't work that way, see my additional replies, especially #15 Celerity Nov 2020 #17
It does work that way based on your assumption but it's clear now you misspoke. unblock Nov 2020 #22
All good, and I meant to include correlated variables as well Celerity Nov 2020 #23
It's all good! unblock Nov 2020 #25
yes, Stockholm (but I grew up in London, near the South Kensington tube station, so right on Celerity Nov 2020 #26
It's the same pool of voters in both elections meadowlander Nov 2020 #14
Thank you! I am just gobsmacked that this is a hard concept to grasp. Celerity Nov 2020 #19
I just read that Romney True Blue American Nov 2020 #5
Yeah there are some scenarios where this could pan out Rstrstx Nov 2020 #31
I hope McConnell dies Blue Owl Nov 2020 #6
I like how you think Blue ... mr_lebowski Nov 2020 #9
If there was a God, that would have been McConnell's fate long ago. nt SunSeeker Nov 2020 #27
Romney or Any Other Semi Sane Republican Has NO Chance of Securing the GOP Nomination Indykatie Nov 2020 #8
Hmm... Mike Nelson Nov 2020 #28
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