General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Dr. Osterholm: "The next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic." [View all]WSHazel
(159 posts)The most complete failure of leadership in this whole pandemic is our failure to get any meaningful or useful data about any aspect of this. Other than generally knowing that old and/or obese people are more likely to have severe cases, we don't know anything. We should have been capturing detailed data about every aspect of every case and running regressions against every knowable factor to find trends and correlations. That is how one solves problems. Right now we have nothing.
Maybe Osterholm is right, or maybe he is talking out his ass. I agree that the vaccine trials are struggling, 3rd quarter next year could be 3rd quarter 2022 or 2023 or 2030 for all we know. If he is saying that the next 6-12 weeks will be worse than the beginning, then that means about 30,000 deaths a day. In the beginning, NYC was generating 700 deaths a day by itself, so if the next 6-12 weeks are going to be worse, then Osterholm is predicting (330 million Americans / 8 million New Yorkers * 700 deaths a day) 28,875 deaths a day. Is that really what Osterholm is saying? Or is Osterholm just making unhelpful dramatic statements to get himself on TV?
Every time an "expert" like Osterholm says the sky is falling, and it doesn't, it feeds the Covid Hoaxers. We need to be right about this stuff, and making unspecific but histrionic predictions reduces the chances of us being right. If he is going to say the sky is falling, he needs to be specific about EXACTLY what that looks like.
https://www.businessinsider.com/infectious-disease-osterholm-darkest-weeks-of-pandemic-2020-10