General Discussion

BainsBane

(53,150 posts)

26. Nate Silver says

Mon Sep 21, 2020, 12:54 AM

Sep 2020

Hillary's ground game didn't cost her the election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/

There are several major problems with the idea that Clinton’s Electoral College tactics cost her the election. For one thing, winning Wisconsin and Michigan — states that Clinton is rightly accused of ignoring — would not have sufficed to win her the Electoral College. She’d also have needed Pennsylvania, Florida or another state where she campaigned extensively. For another, Clinton spent almost twice as much money as Trump on her campaign in total. So even if she devoted a smaller share of her budget to a particular state or a particular activity, it may nonetheless have amounted to more resources overall (5 percent of a $969 million budget is more than 8 percent of a $531 million one).

But most importantly, the changes in the vote from 2012 to 2016 are much better explained by demographics than by where the campaigns spent their time and money.

See link above for more.

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33 replies

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The shy Trump voter. [View all] Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 OP

The EC was rigged in shithole's favor . . Iliyah Sep 2020 #1

Up until it happened, everyone said the EC was going to save the Democrats in 2016. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #3

Nate Silver says BainsBane Sep 2020 #26

It didn't cost her the election because of Pennsylvania... Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #27

and Trump is targeting Minnesota, BainsBane Sep 2020 #28

It's possible for sure... Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #29

Obama was exceptional BainsBane Sep 2020 #30

Agree with the overall premise rufus dog Sep 2020 #2

In my old 'con leaning, well-off neighborhood, there are relatively few prez signs up yet. empedocles Sep 2020 #9

Repubs are going to vote for him, a given rufus dog Sep 2020 #11

You completely ignored the 40%+ of American voters who didn't vote in 2016. Blue_true Sep 2020 #4

I can only go by what the polls say. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #5

You do have to wonder about the undecideds at this point. TheRealNorth Sep 2020 #6

My parents are shy Biden supporters. musicblind Sep 2020 #7

Yep. I think we're going to see a lot of shy Biden voters. backscatter712 Sep 2020 #8

I think shy and silent are misleading... Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #10

I just now saw this but still wanted to answer. musicblind Sep 2020 #33

THIS rufus dog Sep 2020 #13

Great Work, But I'll Dissent With The Conclusion ProfessorGAC Sep 2020 #12

Thanks for the post. I was triggered to post it by a recent Florida survey. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #14

The Shy Trump voter is a myth- it was a polling error well documented Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #15

Thanks. But did you read my post? Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #16

Did you read my post? The Rust Belt swing in Trump support was due to polling error Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #17

I did. I asked if you read my post because you're replying with an irrelevant comment. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #18

And I am suggesting that "shy" Trump voters simply weren't counted in polls Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #19

I get what you're saying. I'm saying it's irrelevant to my post. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #21

Hillary said in her book that her polling numbers were correct. betsuni Sep 2020 #20

I agree polls were largely correct. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #22

I'm assuming there'll be more early voting this time, which will help Biden. betsuni Sep 2020 #23

Plus, there's fewer undecided voters this go around - both nationally and in these three states. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #24

Thanks for your thoughtful BainsBane Sep 2020 #25

The elephant in the room... albacore Sep 2020 #31

I agree. Was the first election after the repeal of the Voting Rights Act. betsuni Sep 2020 #32