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ProfessorGAC

(65,713 posts)

12. Great Work, But I'll Dissent With The Conclusion

Reply to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sun Sep 20, 2020, 06:00 PM

Sep 2020

I think a case can be made that some of the late deciders had:
- A propaganda rooted of mistrust or dislike of HRC.
- A willingness to go with the unknown quantity to "shake things up".
There is no such 25 year campaign to stir up Biden hate. PINO is no longer an unknown quantity or an outsider.
Hence, direct numerical comparison with 2016 is distorted by 2 extrinsic, but subjective, elements.
I appreciate the effort, you make fair points, and your write up is solid.
But, I don't think this comparison works.

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The shy Trump voter. [View all] Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 OP

The EC was rigged in shithole's favor . . Iliyah Sep 2020 #1

Up until it happened, everyone said the EC was going to save the Democrats in 2016. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #3

Nate Silver says BainsBane Sep 2020 #26

It didn't cost her the election because of Pennsylvania... Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #27

and Trump is targeting Minnesota, BainsBane Sep 2020 #28

It's possible for sure... Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #29

Obama was exceptional BainsBane Sep 2020 #30

Agree with the overall premise rufus dog Sep 2020 #2

In my old 'con leaning, well-off neighborhood, there are relatively few prez signs up yet. empedocles Sep 2020 #9

Repubs are going to vote for him, a given rufus dog Sep 2020 #11

You completely ignored the 40%+ of American voters who didn't vote in 2016. Blue_true Sep 2020 #4

I can only go by what the polls say. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #5

You do have to wonder about the undecideds at this point. TheRealNorth Sep 2020 #6

My parents are shy Biden supporters. musicblind Sep 2020 #7

Yep. I think we're going to see a lot of shy Biden voters. backscatter712 Sep 2020 #8

I think shy and silent are misleading... Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #10

I just now saw this but still wanted to answer. musicblind Sep 2020 #33

THIS rufus dog Sep 2020 #13

Great Work, But I'll Dissent With The Conclusion ProfessorGAC Sep 2020 #12

Thanks for the post. I was triggered to post it by a recent Florida survey. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #14

The Shy Trump voter is a myth- it was a polling error well documented Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #15

Thanks. But did you read my post? Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #16

Did you read my post? The Rust Belt swing in Trump support was due to polling error Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #17

I did. I asked if you read my post because you're replying with an irrelevant comment. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #18

And I am suggesting that "shy" Trump voters simply weren't counted in polls Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #19

I get what you're saying. I'm saying it's irrelevant to my post. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #21

Hillary said in her book that her polling numbers were correct. betsuni Sep 2020 #20

I agree polls were largely correct. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #22

I'm assuming there'll be more early voting this time, which will help Biden. betsuni Sep 2020 #23

Plus, there's fewer undecided voters this go around - both nationally and in these three states. Drunken Irishman Sep 2020 #24

Thanks for your thoughtful BainsBane Sep 2020 #25

The elephant in the room... albacore Sep 2020 #31

I agree. Was the first election after the repeal of the Voting Rights Act. betsuni Sep 2020 #32