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BGBD

(3,282 posts)

15. IHME has been very conservative

Reply to Loki Liesmith (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 02:10 PM

Apr 2020

It is essentially a best-case scenario that makes a lot of assumptions that don't seem to be true right now.

I think this is a more accurate model.

It shows a median projection of close to 60k deaths by the end of April.

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

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17 replies

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IHME model needs updating badly [View all] Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 OP

We May Reach That Before End Of April sfstaxprep Apr 2020 #1

and all of that depends on staying locked down until the viral reservoir is near zero lapfog_1 Apr 2020 #2

K&R, That's if we stay at the current mitigation measures right? Once the MAGA Munchers let ... uponit7771 Apr 2020 #3

We need a derogatory label for those fools. Something that makes them socially contagious. Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #4

👍, furtalizeres ? uponit7771 Apr 2020 #11

They'll wear it as a badge of honor, like 'Deplorables' Amishman Apr 2020 #17

Current social distancing assumed until infections minimized and containment implemented Shermann Apr 2020 #5

Model was looking ok last week. Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #7

We are still social distancing. That's the easy phase. Shermann Apr 2020 #10

The revised data are a problem. Igel Apr 2020 #14

Ya think? Squinch Apr 2020 #6

Looked better last week Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #8

For some strange reason, their model seems to assume or predict... Silent3 Apr 2020 #9

It means that their algorithm predicted something that didn't happen. Igel Apr 2020 #12

I get that, not really the point I was making Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #13

IHME has been very conservative BGBD Apr 2020 #15

Look at their confidence intervals. They're predicting 65K beds today but... Azathoth Apr 2020 #16