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In reply to the discussion: How exactly are there "only" supposed to be 60,000 deaths? [View all]ProfessorGAC
(68,613 posts)28. My Numbers Are Similar
The model says 60k by May 19. I'm calculating that as 2 weeks late for 60k.
So, closer to 70k by May 19.
A guestimated drop projects an average of declining weeks of 1,400-1,600/week.
So, my guesstimate is mid-80s.
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Only by flattening the curve, sustainably. But it could easily be four times that if "opened up". nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Apr 2020
#1
Trump will keep moving the target no matter how it shakes out he'll declare victory:
captain queeg
Apr 2020
#2
By August it should be clearer whether we have a nice German death curve or an Italian one
Bernardo de La Paz
Apr 2020
#12
60,000 seems really low, I'll be surprised if the US does not pass that within the next 2 to 3 weeks
Celerity
Apr 2020
#21
Yes, a lot more. There were 4500 yesterday, the highest daily total so far. At that rate it's 31k...
brush
Apr 2020
#16
A reporter needs to ask malevolent in WH, JUST 60,000? What do you mean by JUST?
RestoreAmerica2020
Apr 2020
#6
Your reply is totally irrelevant. I posted data showing how innacurate your favorite model is.
greyl
Apr 2020
#55
Wow. You're really invested, aren't you? But the discussion here is the validity
Squinch
Apr 2020
#37
Why on earth not? Seems highly illogical and self-defeating. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Apr 2020
#43
I asked "why not?" after you wrote "I don't click DU blue links." I'm stonkered why you might even
Bernardo de La Paz
Apr 2020
#49
There are already 37,000 deaths. It won't be 25% of the current rate for 3 months
Bernardo de La Paz
Apr 2020
#10
Very impressive calculations...and I think very likely to happen...the best if we continue to
Demsrule86
Apr 2020
#17
This. Thank you. Watching the trends, this is just about the same as my calculations.
Squinch
Apr 2020
#25
Typo in first calculations (week 2). Rather than edit, I will repost now
Bernardo de La Paz
Apr 2020
#44
Back when that model projected 68,000 deaths, the website said the model assumed ...
dawg
Apr 2020
#45
It won't help if Trump and his allies attempt shell games to obscure the truth for political reasons
Tom Rinaldo
Apr 2020
#46