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fishwax

(29,152 posts)

109. I think we're having success flattening the curve, but these projections are low, imo

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 12:33 AM

Apr 2020

for many reasons, including that we're still not testing as much as we should and we're likely already drastically underestimating current casualties.

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Starting to look like we may be under 100K US deaths given most up to date modeling. [View all] Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 OP

no testing is great!! stillcool Apr 2020 #1

+1. That's the beauty of Dr. Trump's plan dalton99a Apr 2020 #2

+1 It's just grand! crickets Apr 2020 #28

Yup. cwydro Apr 2020 #40

The number of deaths has a tangential relationship with the amount of testing. Blue_true Apr 2020 #84

How would lack of testing increase deaths? PoindexterOglethorpe Apr 2020 #88

No, the test doesn't kill. Blue_true Apr 2020 #89

Plus, the untested are either not treated or not treated as soon. LACK OF TESTING KILLS... blitzen Apr 2020 #90

This message was self-deleted by its author blitzen Apr 2020 #91

But, the lack of testing means that Bettie Apr 2020 #99

Good point. By not letting the public know the true cause of death, Trump Blue_true Apr 2020 #100

We know better than to believe anything coming from the trump WH. brush Apr 2020 #3

Uh this is the University of Washington. Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #7

If the WH is pushing it, I have doubts. It's a projection, but since we don't have wide testing we.. brush Apr 2020 #14

We should all be skeptical, if for no other reason than... Eyeball_Kid Apr 2020 #78

It looks legit, I know, but really, they've been estimating in the 80 thousands since Squinch Apr 2020 #26

Cannot trust numbers. SheltieLover Apr 2020 #30

Operative Words: First Wave Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2020 #4

Good questions to inform future modeling. Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #8

Every epidemiologist who HASN'T thought of this needs to get another job. n/t Eyeball_Kid Apr 2020 #79

I'm sure the study authors agree with you Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #81

+1 Newest Reality Apr 2020 #27

Don't know why Republican sociopaths in congress refused Hortensis Apr 2020 #5

Sociopaths do what sociopaths do. n/t Eyeball_Kid Apr 2020 #80

Boy, I think you hit it. Very likely to be the bottom line. Hortensis Apr 2020 #86

That site has been touting those numbers for months. Squinch Apr 2020 #6

Given that this is an update from Sunday Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #9

Here's from about 2 weeks ago Squinch Apr 2020 #16

How does a report from two weeks ago prove they've been saying that for months? Captain Stern Apr 2020 #31

It was a link to the site that I happened to find quickly. People have been linking to this Squinch Apr 2020 #45

We want the duration for 'x' amount of deaths to be pushed out. Captain Stern Apr 2020 #49

Look at the link at sheltie's post: Squinch Apr 2020 #52

Article suggest social distancing and shelter in place orders are working Kaleva Apr 2020 #50

+1, we're no where near 70% compliance nationwide even in cities with SIP orders. NO WAY uponit7771 Apr 2020 #54

i figured that's why Trump said 100,000 to 200,000 Kablooie Apr 2020 #10

I'm sure it is Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #11

+1. "I kept the number to a minimum. Very, very low. I achieved the lowest deaths! Democrats and dalton99a Apr 2020 #13

What's sickening Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2020 #15

His people will fall for anything Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #18

It's not really the redhats I'm worried about Proud Liberal Dem Apr 2020 #21

That's exactly what I said the day he came out doc03 Apr 2020 #38

I Agree ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #63

Through August. Voltaire2 Apr 2020 #12

We may indeed. But we will hit a really slow burn Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #17

Korea did massive testing and contact tracing. Voltaire2 Apr 2020 #24

We still can! Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #34

When? We've reached the point where Voltaire2 Apr 2020 #51

A couple points Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #69

Say it with me: DEEP SOUTH Brainfodder Apr 2020 #19

We will see. But numbers are declining in MANY areas. Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #20

Low Numbers Are Good kpete Apr 2020 #47

According to worldometers we're testing half the numbers that SK, HK, Germany etc tested uponit7771 Apr 2020 #56

That's unknown when we're at sub par per capita testing uponit7771 Apr 2020 #55

Most deaths are being under reported. imo clutterbox1830 Apr 2020 #22

That's why trump said up to 240,000...when it comes in lower he will take all the credit spanone Apr 2020 #23

People fall for this stuff when it comes to a couple hundred dollars in a furniture sale greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #25

Physical distancing is working. yardwork Apr 2020 #29

Yes it is. This is good news. underpants Apr 2020 #41

Only if we keep it up spinbaby Apr 2020 #82

Not in Washington. We're following Pres. Samuel L Jackson's orders. nolabear Apr 2020 #94

I don't think so. Newest Reality Apr 2020 #32

This defacto7 Apr 2020 #46

What interest does UWash have in propaganda? Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #71

Why do you think Trump picked that number? nt doc03 Apr 2020 #33

Until what date? I mean, no one knows when this will end because sub par per capita testing uponit7771 Apr 2020 #35

Which Trump will try to claim credit for Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Apr 2020 #36

Much more inclined to believe these #s! SheltieLover Apr 2020 #37

Wow! On March 20, they almost exactly estimated the death toll as of today! Squinch Apr 2020 #48

Yup SheltieLover Apr 2020 #53

Working the math out, that's 102,000 dead just from the infections that had occurred by Squinch Apr 2020 #62

This should be its own OP !! This guy was RIGHT DEAD ON WITH 90% of Calculations uponit7771 Apr 2020 #57

that is the pig's bet that we will come in well under 100K and he will look good. Thomas Hurt Apr 2020 #39

Georgia and Louisiana are just getting started Fiendish Thingy Apr 2020 #42

Good luck with this . cwydro Apr 2020 #43

Good luck to us all yes. Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #70

Optimistic but plausible europe numbers this week may help validate their model. logme Apr 2020 #44

Under-reported down because coroners cannot verify -- will need analysis like PR data later JT45242 Apr 2020 #58

Gavin acted quickly and enacted shelter in place in California MenloParque Apr 2020 #59

Revisionist history dpibel Apr 2020 #102

1) We are undercounting both sickness & death 2) This is far from over Hekate Apr 2020 #60

Seattle is projected to peak on the 11th ismnotwasm Apr 2020 #61

I think so too, hopefully. The original CDC estimates were up to 2 Million. Hoyt Apr 2020 #64

This is all about HIGH numbers so that gives bluestarone Apr 2020 #65

kudos to the Dem governors leading the charge on stay at home orders. Takket Apr 2020 #66

To my surprise Dewine was right there at the start of it Tribetime Apr 2020 #68

I am afraid we are still on track for 100,000 dead by the end of this month. mackdaddy Apr 2020 #67

When I first read your thread title I said to myself HarlanPepper Apr 2020 #72

It is what is Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #73

I assume no one does HarlanPepper Apr 2020 #75

I think for some Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #77

Good insightful points the second of which I had not considered HarlanPepper Apr 2020 #83

Not happy with any dead, let alone 100,000. scrabblequeen40 Apr 2020 #74

I hope the same for you. Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #76

We will never know how many died of this shit. albacore Apr 2020 #85

Don the Con has blood on his hands whether its 10 or 100,000 malaise Apr 2020 #87

Regardless of the ultimate US death toll, the comparision that matters is deaths per million pop. blitzen Apr 2020 #92

Due to various age structures & other factors, mortality rates will not enable proper comparisons logme Apr 2020 #93

Their model was adjusted downward again today FBaggins Apr 2020 #95

That I don't agree with Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #98

They appear to have been about spot on for today FBaggins Apr 2020 #103

Eh looks like they'll be 300-400 under by the end of the day Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #104

The numbers don't appear to have changed FBaggins Apr 2020 #106

Two more days essentially spot on. FBaggins Apr 2020 #107

We shall see. They revised upward slightly today Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #108

They revised by a couple percent FBaggins Apr 2020 #119

What is the point of projecting deaths from a first wave? As soon as we let up on social distancing pnwmom Apr 2020 #117

That model feels extremely optimistic Azathoth Apr 2020 #96

People have been saying that for a couple weeks now FBaggins Apr 2020 #97

Let's talk again after this thing is done with those below the Mason-Dixon line/ LaurenOlimina Apr 2020 #101

The comments on threads like these often make DU appear as if we are cheering for more deaths A HERETIC I AM Apr 2020 #105

I think we're having success flattening the curve, but these projections are low, imo fishwax Apr 2020 #109

Model adjusted slightly upward todat fwiw Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #110

Yes ! Hope we go a lot lower ...45,000 Laura PourMeADrink Apr 2020 #111

I've been seeing such possibility's elsewhere. I'm desperate for them to be true. herding cats Apr 2020 #112

The model assumes we are socially distancing till August Loki Liesmith Apr 2020 #113

We can expect that to change for the worse again Mariana Apr 2020 #114

They will only stay low BGBD Apr 2020 #115

What the heck is this "first wave"? The question is how many people die before a vaccine pnwmom Apr 2020 #116

How are they supposed to know when a vaccine will be developed? FBaggins Apr 2020 #118

This was optimistic. :( DangerousRhythm Jul 2020 #120

Eh their model was badly broken Loki Liesmith Jul 2020 #121