Rassumussen vs Gallup - must be polling on different presidents?

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Rasmussen was 45% then 43% in two late January polls

You are correct it's not exactly apple to apples. The 37% Gallup poll was January 27th. Trump's approval has ticked upward since then so Gallup is still reflecting an old number. They'll likely be quite a bit higher on the next sample, although not close to Rasmussen level.

I don't care about specific polling firms as long as Trump's blended number on 530 stays below 42. He can't win from there unless our nominee implodes. If Trump reaches let's say 44% or 45% on 538, then we're not in great shape because the election day electorate will be several points more kind to him than a polling consensus.

I'm going to keep that 44% in mind throughout 2019 and 2020, without making any subjective rationalizations along the way. It is very easy to subjectively fool yourself. Meanwhile, the math and the fundamentals are not impressed.

Hopefully Trump continues to keep talking and tweeting and being himself, driving his number down into the high 30s, where 538 had it a couple of weeks ago.