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Celerity
Celerity's Journal
Celerity's Journal
November 4, 2020
Win PA, we win the POTUS, it's that simple, barring any major surprises (FL & NC were not surprises)
this map is the WORST I can see us doing if we win PA
November 4, 2020
assuming NC goes Red (NYT now 81% chance it goes Rump) its looking like it is down to PA, NV and AZ
barring a huge surprise in TX or OH or WI or MI or MN or IA or NE-2
IF we win PA and the rest holds, Trump cannot win, even if he grabs NC, AZ, NV
Trump wins in the following
November 4, 2020
it may, MAY be down to 3 states PA, NC, AZ, w/ NV as a wild card (assuming we win NE-2. MI, WI, MN)
the same 3 I have been banging on for ages (plus NE-2, which I have said we would win) and then NV as a possible Rump flip (still doubtful in my book)
NC looks good atm, GA may be slipping away (I have never assumed we win that)
TX still with an outside chance for the KILLSHOT
my final picks again, just so you see where I am coming from
November 4, 2020
FL is 95%+ done, it went for the orange monster, the Latinx, especially the Cubans, carried the day
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc
November 3, 2020
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/how-trump-could-attempt-coup/616954/
A wretched presidential campaign has played out at last, but Election Day is not how this story ends. Unable to overtake his opponent in the polls, Donald Trump decided months ago to run against the election itself. That race does not conclude when the ballots are counted. Trump has raged against fictional plots to steal his victory, maligning routine procedures such as voting by mail and counting ballots until there are no more to count. His rage will not diminish if he is defeated. Our electoral system was not built to withstand a sustained assault on its legitimacy. We are capable of defending it, but that is a collective enterprise. A healthy start would be to recognize that the assault has yet to begin in earnest. Election Day and the period to follow will be moments of maximum temptation for Trump. Can he find a way to interfere with the tabulation of votes? Impound ballots in the mail? Dispatch armed personnel to quell alleged disturbances in Democratic neighbourhoods?
The battle for American democracy will not be fully joined until the counting starts. That’s when Trump will tell us that his predictions have come true—that the whole procedure is rife with fraud, that the tally is rigged against him, and that no one can be trusted except Trump himself to tell us who won and who lost. The vital questions are whether and how he will try to use his power to subvert the results. Whether, I think, is easy. We have been over this before. Trump will not concede defeat. He will use every means at his disposal to maintain a grip on power. That qualifier, “at his disposal,” is important. It marks a distinction between wishes and commands that Trump can expect to be carried out. We know Trump’s intent. He is indifferent to any interest but his own and ruthless in its pursuit. What we need to know, in self-defence, is his capability. Trump stands atop a vast apparatus of government, ostensibly under his control but not entirely so in fact. To move the government, Trump needs to know where the levers are and how to control them. In practice, this means persuading other people to operate the machinery on his behalf. Some of those people would balk at certain kinds of orders.
The Constitution anoints Trump the chief law-enforcement officer of the United States, but he cannot lock up Joe Biden or disqualify him from the race by executive order, no matter how much he yearns publicly to do so. He is commander in chief of the armed forces, but he cannot declare martial law, delay the election, and expect the troops to go along. The men and women he likes to call “my generals” would not obey. What, then, can Trump do? In public, Biden and his senior advisers profess full confidence in the electoral system to work as it always has. Every vote will be counted, they say, and the winner will be sworn in on January 20—end of story. Behind the scenes, they are preparing for the worst. A special working group of high-powered lawyers led by three former solicitors general—Walter Dellinger; Donald B. Verrilli Jr.; and a recent addition, Seth Waxman—has overseen a massive planning exercise for rapid responses to dozens of scenarios in which Trump tries to interfere with the normal functioning of the election. Thousands of pages of legal analysis, according to an authoritative campaign source, have been boiled down into “template pleadings” for at least 49 predrafted emergency motions in state or federal court. The campaign will be ready on an hour’s notice to file for a temporary restraining order in any case it has thus far been able to anticipate.
“There’s no question that the Biden campaign has worked through every imaginable scenario and is certainly prepared—legally, at least—for any of these possibilities,” says Richard H. Pildes, a constitutional-law professor at NYU. Nothing Trump might do “would surprise the enormous legal team they’ve created to deal with twists and turns in the election. I assure you they’ve thought of more scenarios than the media would ever get to.” The Biden team says it is ready even for scenarios it is sure will “never happen, and we’re not worried about it,” a Biden-campaign lawyer told me. “There have been a couple of lawsuits challenging Kamala Harris’s eligibility to be vice president,” he said. “Do we have stuff on that? Yeah. Do I think we have to worry about it? Absolutely not.” Preparations for other cases feel more urgent, he said. Biden advisers (some of whom requested anonymity so that they could discuss this work) and independent experts I spoke with have gamed out multiple scenarios, with variations of law and circumstance, in which Trump sends forces to seize—or segregate, or intercept—ballots before they can be counted. Some of the scenarios seem far-fetched, others less so. Here are three they have taken seriously, along with reasons to doubt that Trump can pull them off. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment.)
snip
The Atlantic - How Trump Could Attempt a Coup
The Biden team is preparing for the worst. Here are three possible scenarios.https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/how-trump-could-attempt-coup/616954/
A wretched presidential campaign has played out at last, but Election Day is not how this story ends. Unable to overtake his opponent in the polls, Donald Trump decided months ago to run against the election itself. That race does not conclude when the ballots are counted. Trump has raged against fictional plots to steal his victory, maligning routine procedures such as voting by mail and counting ballots until there are no more to count. His rage will not diminish if he is defeated. Our electoral system was not built to withstand a sustained assault on its legitimacy. We are capable of defending it, but that is a collective enterprise. A healthy start would be to recognize that the assault has yet to begin in earnest. Election Day and the period to follow will be moments of maximum temptation for Trump. Can he find a way to interfere with the tabulation of votes? Impound ballots in the mail? Dispatch armed personnel to quell alleged disturbances in Democratic neighbourhoods?
The battle for American democracy will not be fully joined until the counting starts. That’s when Trump will tell us that his predictions have come true—that the whole procedure is rife with fraud, that the tally is rigged against him, and that no one can be trusted except Trump himself to tell us who won and who lost. The vital questions are whether and how he will try to use his power to subvert the results. Whether, I think, is easy. We have been over this before. Trump will not concede defeat. He will use every means at his disposal to maintain a grip on power. That qualifier, “at his disposal,” is important. It marks a distinction between wishes and commands that Trump can expect to be carried out. We know Trump’s intent. He is indifferent to any interest but his own and ruthless in its pursuit. What we need to know, in self-defence, is his capability. Trump stands atop a vast apparatus of government, ostensibly under his control but not entirely so in fact. To move the government, Trump needs to know where the levers are and how to control them. In practice, this means persuading other people to operate the machinery on his behalf. Some of those people would balk at certain kinds of orders.
The Constitution anoints Trump the chief law-enforcement officer of the United States, but he cannot lock up Joe Biden or disqualify him from the race by executive order, no matter how much he yearns publicly to do so. He is commander in chief of the armed forces, but he cannot declare martial law, delay the election, and expect the troops to go along. The men and women he likes to call “my generals” would not obey. What, then, can Trump do? In public, Biden and his senior advisers profess full confidence in the electoral system to work as it always has. Every vote will be counted, they say, and the winner will be sworn in on January 20—end of story. Behind the scenes, they are preparing for the worst. A special working group of high-powered lawyers led by three former solicitors general—Walter Dellinger; Donald B. Verrilli Jr.; and a recent addition, Seth Waxman—has overseen a massive planning exercise for rapid responses to dozens of scenarios in which Trump tries to interfere with the normal functioning of the election. Thousands of pages of legal analysis, according to an authoritative campaign source, have been boiled down into “template pleadings” for at least 49 predrafted emergency motions in state or federal court. The campaign will be ready on an hour’s notice to file for a temporary restraining order in any case it has thus far been able to anticipate.
“There’s no question that the Biden campaign has worked through every imaginable scenario and is certainly prepared—legally, at least—for any of these possibilities,” says Richard H. Pildes, a constitutional-law professor at NYU. Nothing Trump might do “would surprise the enormous legal team they’ve created to deal with twists and turns in the election. I assure you they’ve thought of more scenarios than the media would ever get to.” The Biden team says it is ready even for scenarios it is sure will “never happen, and we’re not worried about it,” a Biden-campaign lawyer told me. “There have been a couple of lawsuits challenging Kamala Harris’s eligibility to be vice president,” he said. “Do we have stuff on that? Yeah. Do I think we have to worry about it? Absolutely not.” Preparations for other cases feel more urgent, he said. Biden advisers (some of whom requested anonymity so that they could discuss this work) and independent experts I spoke with have gamed out multiple scenarios, with variations of law and circumstance, in which Trump sends forces to seize—or segregate, or intercept—ballots before they can be counted. Some of the scenarios seem far-fetched, others less so. Here are three they have taken seriously, along with reasons to doubt that Trump can pull them off. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment.)
snip
November 2, 2020
https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/baby-yoda-the-mandalorian-premiere-hiding
Sure, the Season 2 premiere of The Mandalorian features a final plot twist with major implications for the Star Wars universe, but I would be lying if I didn't say that I put it on eagerly with one thing in mind: What is my sweet green offspring Baby Yoda—excuse me, The Child—up to? Turns out, he's doing a lot of hiding! Relatable. Baby Yoda can use the Force—though it takes a lot out of him, poor thing—but he's also very wise, which means he retreats from conflict when he feels like it. See, for instance, in the cold open of this episode when he knows shit's about to go down and his protector is going to fuck up John Leguizamo in prosthetics. To prepare, he just closes his floating bassinet with an adorable press of a button.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907634/video/desktop.webm
Once again, this little guy is speaking to our cultural moment in astonishing fashion. 2020 is a goddamn nightmare, and all I want to do is make like Baby Yoda and disappear into a tiny crib or perhaps a bucket. When the super scary sandworm creature known as the Krayt dragon ravages Tatooine, Baby Yoda does what must be done and shrinks down into an empty container, which is how I plan to deal with election night.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907636/video/desktop.webm
In the following GIF, I imagine the unseen approaching Tusken raiders as the coronavirus pandemic, and Baby Yoda is my fear of leaving the house.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907638/video/desktop.webm
Look, Baby Yoda knows he has it good now. Mando is going to care for him no matter what, so all he has to bide his time until his powers are absolutely needed. I wish I had the security Baby Yoda has. For now, however, I'm just going to emulate his fabulous instincts for self-preservation and hunker down as much as possible until this terrible year blows over. Nothing says 2020 more than ducking while you watch someone get eaten by a terrifying beast. Thank goodness for Baby Yoda, I'm happy to have him back.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907651/video/desktop.webm
snip
Baby Yoda Hiding Is My 2020 Mood
He always has the best spot, never more so than in the Season 2 premiere of 'The Mandalorian.https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/baby-yoda-the-mandalorian-premiere-hiding
Sure, the Season 2 premiere of The Mandalorian features a final plot twist with major implications for the Star Wars universe, but I would be lying if I didn't say that I put it on eagerly with one thing in mind: What is my sweet green offspring Baby Yoda—excuse me, The Child—up to? Turns out, he's doing a lot of hiding! Relatable. Baby Yoda can use the Force—though it takes a lot out of him, poor thing—but he's also very wise, which means he retreats from conflict when he feels like it. See, for instance, in the cold open of this episode when he knows shit's about to go down and his protector is going to fuck up John Leguizamo in prosthetics. To prepare, he just closes his floating bassinet with an adorable press of a button.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907634/video/desktop.webm
Once again, this little guy is speaking to our cultural moment in astonishing fashion. 2020 is a goddamn nightmare, and all I want to do is make like Baby Yoda and disappear into a tiny crib or perhaps a bucket. When the super scary sandworm creature known as the Krayt dragon ravages Tatooine, Baby Yoda does what must be done and shrinks down into an empty container, which is how I plan to deal with election night.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907636/video/desktop.webm
In the following GIF, I imagine the unseen approaching Tusken raiders as the coronavirus pandemic, and Baby Yoda is my fear of leaving the house.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907638/video/desktop.webm
Look, Baby Yoda knows he has it good now. Mando is going to care for him no matter what, so all he has to bide his time until his powers are absolutely needed. I wish I had the security Baby Yoda has. For now, however, I'm just going to emulate his fabulous instincts for self-preservation and hunker down as much as possible until this terrible year blows over. Nothing says 2020 more than ducking while you watch someone get eaten by a terrifying beast. Thank goodness for Baby Yoda, I'm happy to have him back.
http://assets3.thrillist.com/v1/image/2907651/video/desktop.webm
snip
November 2, 2020
Almost everyone I know is extremely nervous about what is going to happen on November 3rd. Several friends have told me recently that they have had to log out of all social media accounts because of the onslaught of polls, news headlines and crazy Trump tweets that were causing severe anxiety. I am sure most Banter readers are in the same boat. I have struggled with my own moments of fear and panic over the past few weeks and months, no doubt caused by Donald Trump dominating much of my waking life. I have covered his administration for years now, and I have been trained to expect the absolute worst. But I now sense a tidal wave of change coming, and the end of this horrifically destructive era in American history. By late Tuesday all the campaign work will have been done, all the votes cast, and we will know fairly soon after what kind of future Americans and the rest of the planet can look forward to. My best guess is that this election isn’t going to be close. I think Joe Biden is going to hammer Donald Trump in a victory that will give the former Vice President a huge mandate for governing the country.
Trump and his loyalists will kick and scream, mount legal challenges, and demand the Supreme Court intervene. But it won’t matter because the result will be definitive, and no Republican will be able to defend Trump’s position that the election was stolen. I could be wrong about this, as most of us were in 2016, but from careful analysis of the data over many months, I think it is now abundantly clear that 2020 is a very, very different year. Here are some points worth considering as we wait for this pivotal election to be over: If Biden takes Pennsylvania, the race is basically done. He has enough other states that are solid blue in the bag to only need one decent sized, already leaning blue state to take the White House. He’s up by 5.1 points in PA according to FiveThirtyEight and his campaign is engaged in a huge turnout effort on the ground. Trump won the state by 0.7 points in 2016 and it is highly unlikely he’ll be doing better there four years later during a devastating pandemic.
Even if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he still has several paths to victory. For example, while Arizona isn’t as sure a bet as Pennsylvania according to the polls, the state hasn’t suffered the same kind of polling mishaps as other swing states. Polls accurately predicted Trump would win in 2016, and given Biden is now up there by 2.5 points, he has a very good shot of winning it. If he loses PA, there is still no need to panic. AZ is a great back up to get Biden to 270. Trump support has collapsed in key demographics, particularly in the suburbs, and particularly with women. He needs them to win, and there is no evidence they are coming out to vote for him last minute. The state polls have been extremely consistent for months now, and they are likely to be more accurate than they were in 2016. Polls are now weighted for education due to many of them missing Trump’s support with uneducated white men in 2016, and may even be undercounting Biden’s support. There could be 2016 size polling errors, and Biden would still win.
Trump can still win this, but there is no reliable evidence anywhere to suggest he is going to. There were several signs that indicated an upset in 2016 as the election date drew nearer. The polls were tightening, and the FBI inexplicably launched an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server just 11 days before voters went to the polls. There are no such signs in this election. The polls remain steady, there are no investigations into Biden’s so-called “crime family”, and none of Trump’s smear tactics have appeared to have worked. Biden looks set to beat Trump in the Electoral College, and it isn’t going to be close. The Senate is tighter, but all polls point to a Democratic takeover. I suspect it is going to be closer than the Presidential race, but the Democrats are in a very good position to pick up just enough to win a slim majority. Given the horrors of the past four years under Trump and his criminal handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, Americans and the planet deserve a break. Those opposed to this administration have worked tirelessly for this moment, so go vote if you haven’t, then get ready for a very good night for Joe Biden and the Democrats. You’ve earned it.
See you on the other side.
See You On The Other Side........ Joe Biden is going to win, and it isn't going to be close.
https://thebanter.substack.com/p/see-you-on-the-other-sideAlmost everyone I know is extremely nervous about what is going to happen on November 3rd. Several friends have told me recently that they have had to log out of all social media accounts because of the onslaught of polls, news headlines and crazy Trump tweets that were causing severe anxiety. I am sure most Banter readers are in the same boat. I have struggled with my own moments of fear and panic over the past few weeks and months, no doubt caused by Donald Trump dominating much of my waking life. I have covered his administration for years now, and I have been trained to expect the absolute worst. But I now sense a tidal wave of change coming, and the end of this horrifically destructive era in American history. By late Tuesday all the campaign work will have been done, all the votes cast, and we will know fairly soon after what kind of future Americans and the rest of the planet can look forward to. My best guess is that this election isn’t going to be close. I think Joe Biden is going to hammer Donald Trump in a victory that will give the former Vice President a huge mandate for governing the country.
Trump and his loyalists will kick and scream, mount legal challenges, and demand the Supreme Court intervene. But it won’t matter because the result will be definitive, and no Republican will be able to defend Trump’s position that the election was stolen. I could be wrong about this, as most of us were in 2016, but from careful analysis of the data over many months, I think it is now abundantly clear that 2020 is a very, very different year. Here are some points worth considering as we wait for this pivotal election to be over: If Biden takes Pennsylvania, the race is basically done. He has enough other states that are solid blue in the bag to only need one decent sized, already leaning blue state to take the White House. He’s up by 5.1 points in PA according to FiveThirtyEight and his campaign is engaged in a huge turnout effort on the ground. Trump won the state by 0.7 points in 2016 and it is highly unlikely he’ll be doing better there four years later during a devastating pandemic.
Even if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he still has several paths to victory. For example, while Arizona isn’t as sure a bet as Pennsylvania according to the polls, the state hasn’t suffered the same kind of polling mishaps as other swing states. Polls accurately predicted Trump would win in 2016, and given Biden is now up there by 2.5 points, he has a very good shot of winning it. If he loses PA, there is still no need to panic. AZ is a great back up to get Biden to 270. Trump support has collapsed in key demographics, particularly in the suburbs, and particularly with women. He needs them to win, and there is no evidence they are coming out to vote for him last minute. The state polls have been extremely consistent for months now, and they are likely to be more accurate than they were in 2016. Polls are now weighted for education due to many of them missing Trump’s support with uneducated white men in 2016, and may even be undercounting Biden’s support. There could be 2016 size polling errors, and Biden would still win.
Trump can still win this, but there is no reliable evidence anywhere to suggest he is going to. There were several signs that indicated an upset in 2016 as the election date drew nearer. The polls were tightening, and the FBI inexplicably launched an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server just 11 days before voters went to the polls. There are no such signs in this election. The polls remain steady, there are no investigations into Biden’s so-called “crime family”, and none of Trump’s smear tactics have appeared to have worked. Biden looks set to beat Trump in the Electoral College, and it isn’t going to be close. The Senate is tighter, but all polls point to a Democratic takeover. I suspect it is going to be closer than the Presidential race, but the Democrats are in a very good position to pick up just enough to win a slim majority. Given the horrors of the past four years under Trump and his criminal handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, Americans and the planet deserve a break. Those opposed to this administration have worked tirelessly for this moment, so go vote if you haven’t, then get ready for a very good night for Joe Biden and the Democrats. You’ve earned it.
See you on the other side.
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