December 11, 2022

What are the big Supreme Court cases that will be decided in June?

I know of two right now. The first being the "independent state legislature theory" which could threaten democracy. The press is reporting that it looks like at least 6 Justices will side with us, so I'm not worried.

The second one that I know of is the Colorado web site designer that refused to make websites for same-sex couples. Anyone know how that's going so far? I know how the Colorado baker case went a few years ago, but there are differences.

What are the other remaining big ones? How are they going?

December 9, 2022

Calls Build for Manchin to Follow Sinema in Leaving Democratic Party

Source: Newsweek

Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona announced in an op-ed on Friday that she's ditching the Democratic Party to register as an independent. Now, some are demanding that another Democratic senator follow suit: West Virginia's Joe Manchin.

Along with Sinema, Manchin is viewed by many political observers as one of the country's most powerful people. Their less-reliably-liberal votes can either grant the green light or spell doom for legislation in an otherwise stalemated U.S. Senate.

The Democrats narrowly held on to their Senate majority following November's midterm elections. And this week, after Republican candidate Herschel Walker conceded in Georgia's U.S. Senate runoff election against Senator Raphael Warnock, Democrats locked in a 51-49 majority.

Yet while critics have decried Sinema as a "traitor," news of her defection has also energized some conservatives. Many right-leaning social media users are egging on Manchin to similarly jump ship.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/calls-build-manchin-follow-sinema-leaving-democratic-party-1765952

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I doubt that he switches now, but if Jim Justice announces that he's running for the Senate and starts polling ahead of Manchin, he may do the same.

December 9, 2022

2024 Arizona Senate race

We must nominate a great candidate and get behind him or her 100%. Sinema must not play spoiler. Think about this. The Republican is going to get 45-47% no matter what (Kari Lake is a good guess). I don't see many Republicans voting for Sinema, so we absolutely must do the same and unite behind our candidate. I know that all of DU will.

December 7, 2022

What happened to the NY Times needle?

Last I saw it was at 63% Warnock about 20 minutes ago. Been frozen ever since.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/06/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate-runoff.html#forecast?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc&region=FreeformText

December 2, 2022

Ye just had a Tweet removed that was so bad, it was even too much for Twitter

Here's a screenshot. It appears to be a swastika inside a Star of David.

https://twitter.com/Ph33sh/status/1598528417116303361

November 29, 2022

Any updates coming soon for California 13th?

It's one of the last two uncalled House races (the other being Lauren Boebert's seat).

November 26, 2022

Very sad clip of turkeys gathering around a dead cat (cry warning)

https://twitter.com/DannyDutch/status/1596069072516812805

November 23, 2022

Kevin Kiley, backed by Donald Trump, heading to Congress as he defeats Kermit Jones

Source: The Sacramento Bee

Republican Kevin Kiley, a conservative firebrand supported by former President Donald Trump, topped Democrat Kermit Jones to win the new 3rd Congressional District seat, according to an Associated Press projection.

With 84% of the vote counted as of Tuesday afternoon, Kiley had about 53% to Jones’ 47%.

Kiley will represent the newly drawn 3rd District, which stretches 450 miles from Plumas County, through the Sacramento suburbs and parts of El Dorado County, and south to Inyo County.

While independent analysts had seen the race as a likely Republican win, the Kiley-Jones clash became a classic Republican vs. Democratic battle.

Read more: https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article268650117.html

November 21, 2022

Here is the status of the 5 uncalled House races (NY Times)

According to the NY Times, Republicans have clinched 218 members of the House. Other sites say 219, and project Kevin Kiley the winner (where he is leading Kermit Jones by 10,000 votes). Still, I'll go by the NYT model.

California 22nd
David Valadao *incumbent Republican 52.7%
Rudy Salas Democrat 47.3%
86% reporting

California 3rd
Kevin Kiley Republican 52.1%
Kermit Jones Democrat 47.9%
71% reporting

California 13th
John Duarte Republican 50.34%
Adam Gray Democrat 49.66%
95% reporting

Colorado 3rd
Lauren Boebert *incumbent Republican 50.08%
Adam Frisch Democrat 49.92%
95% reporting (other sites say 99%) pending recount

Alaska At Large
Mary Peltola* incumbent Democrat 48.7%
Sarah Palin Republican 25.8%
Nick Begich Republican 23.4%
95% reporting, pending ranked choice on November 23

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=NavBar

November 21, 2022

Odd Kanye Tweet

Cryptic dig at Jews?

https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1594469982150488066