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nkpolitics1212's Journal
nkpolitics1212's Journal
July 1, 2017

2018 US Senate Election Landslide Margin Democratic Victory to Landslide Margin Republican victory.

Landslide Margin Democratic Victory.
CA (Feinstein-D) and WA (Cantwell-D) could end up facing a Democrat in November, CA and WA both have blanket primary. A Democratic primary challenger in CA and WA could finish in 2nd place in the primary leading to a Dem vs Dem matchup in November. 25D
NY (Gillibrand-D)26D
VT (Sanders-I/D)27D
HI (Hirono-D)28D
MA (Warren-D)29D
RI (Whitehouse-D)30D
DE (Carper-D)31D
MN (Klobuchar-D)32D
CT (Murphy-D)33D
MD (Cardin-D)34D
NM (Heinrich-D)35D
MI (Stabenow-D)36D
NJ (Menendez-D replacement)37D
ME (King-I/D)38D
Low Double Digit Margin Democratic Victory
VA (Kaine-D)39D
PA (Casey-D)40D
High Single Digit Margin Democratic Victory
WI (Baldwin-D)41D
FL (Nelson-D)42D
WV (Manchin-D)43D
Narrow Margin Democratic Victory
MT (Tester-D)44D
OH (Brown-D)45D
NV (Rosen-D)46D
Too Close too Call
MO (McCaskill-D)47D
IN (Donnelly-D)48D
ND (Heitkamp-D)49D
Narrow Margin Republican Victory
AZ (Flake-R)45R
High Single Digit Margin Republican Victory
TX (Cruz-R)46R
Low Double Digit Margin Republican Victory
UT (Hatch-R)47R
Landslide Margin Republican Victory
TN (Corker-R)48R
MS (Wicker-R)49R
NE (Fischer-R)unopposed 50R
WY (Barrasso-R)unopposed 51R

July 1, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-If Democrats contest every Republican held US Senate seat.

AZ (Flake-R) Mark Kelly-D
MS (Wicker-R) Ray Mabus-D
NE (Fischer-R) Brad Ashford-D
NV (Heller-R) Jacky Rosen-D
TN (Corker-R) Andy Berke-D
TX (Cruz-R) Beto O'Rourke-D
UT (Hatch-R) Jim Matheson-D
WY (Barrasso-R) Dave Freudenthal-D
Kelly (D-AZ) and Rosen (D-NV) have a greater than 50 percent chance of defeating the Republican incumbents- Flake (R-AZ) and Heller (R-NV).
O'Rourke (D-TX),Matheson (D-UT) and Freudenthal (D-WY) could defeat the Republican incumbents- Cruz (R-TX),Hatch (R-UT) and Barrasso(R-WY) if there is a strong Democratic wave or a strong conservative Independent/Third Party candidate running in the November General Election.
Mabus (D-MS),Ashford (D-NE) and Berke (D-TN) could get elected if the Republican incumbents Wicker (R-MS),Fischer (R-NE) and Corker (R-TN) lose in the Republican primary.
Democrats contesting and winning all of those states could help vulnerable Democratic incumbents win re-election.
FL (Nelson-D)if Scott-R runs.
IN (Donnelly-D)
MI (Stabenow-D)if Snyder-R runs.
MO (McCaskill-D)
MT (Tester-D)
ND (Heitkamp-D)
OH (Brown-D)
Democrats could end up with 56 US Senate Seats in 2019 if Democrats hold onto every Democratic held seat and pick up every Republican held seat in 2018.
Democrats could end up with 60 US Senate Seats in 2021 if in 2020- Democrats unseat Republican incumbents in
CO (Gardner-R)
GA (Perdue-R)
IA (Ernst-R)
NC (Tillis-R)
Democrats could also pick up
ME -if Collins-R retires or loses in the Republican primary.

July 1, 2017

Democratic nominees for the 2017 US House Special Elections running for US Senate,Governor or Lt Gov

Ossoff(GA-6) should run for Lt Governor of GA in 2018, then US Senate in 2020 against Perdue-R
Thompson (KS-4) runs for the US Senate in 2020 to replace Roberts-R
Quist (MT-AL) runs for Governor in 2020.
Parnell (SC-5) runs for US Senate in 2020 against Graham-R

July 1, 2017

Soon to be former US Senators

December 2017
Strange (R-AL) loses in the Republican primary.
Early 2018
Menendez (D-NJ) is forced to resign- Governor Murphy-D appoints successor.
November 2018
Carper (D-DE) retires- gets replaced by Markell-D,Blunt Rochester-D,or Denn-D
Cardin (D-MD) retires- gets replaced by Sarbanes-D, Jon Cardin runs for MD-3.
Corker (R-TN) retires- gets replaced by Haslam-R
Heller (R-NV) loses in the November General Election to Rosen-D
Flake (R-AZ) loses in the Republican primary or the November General Election against Mark Kelly-D
Hatch (R-UT) loses in the Republican primary.
Feinstein (D-CA) loses in November if a Democrat finishes in 2nd place in the blanket primary.
Democratic incumbent US Senators who are vulnerable in the November General Election
Donnelly (D-IN) loses if Republican nominee does not pull a Mourdock-R
McCaskill (D-MO) loses if Republican nominee does not pull an Akin-R
Heitkamp (D-ND) vs Cramer (R-ND) could go either way.

July 1, 2017

Governorships and State legislatures-Democrats need to regain control of in the near future.

Colorado State Senate
Connecticut State Senate
Florida Governorship(Graham-D or Gillum-D)
Georgia Governorship(Abrams-D or Evans-D)
Illinois Governorship (Biss-D,Kennedy-D,or Pritzler-D)
Iowa Governorship and State Senate
Maine Governorship and State Senate
Maryland Governorship- Democratic Governor of MD and Democratic controlled State Legislature can redraw US House Districts in MD to make the delegation entirely Democratic. Turn MD-1 into a Democratic leaning district without endangering MD-2,MD-3,MD-5,and MD-8.
Michigan Governorship (Whitmer-D)
Minnesota State Senate
Nevada Governorship (Ford-D,Marshall-D,Miller-D or Sisolak-D)
New Hampshire Governorship(Marchand-D) and State Senate
New Jersey Governorship(Murphy-D)
New Mexico Governorship (Lujan Grisham-D)
New York State Senate
Ohio Governorship (Sutton-D)
Texas State Senate
Virginia State Senate
Washington State Senate
Wisconsin Governorship and State Senate

June 30, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate.

Step 1-win the 2017 AL US Senate Special Election (Democrats need to nominate Doug Jones, Republicans need to nominate Roy Moore) 51R 47D 2I/D
Step 2-win all of the Democratic held US Senate seats in Clinton states (HI-Hirono,CA-Feinstein,MA-Warren,MD-Cardin,VT-Sanders-I,NY-Gillibrand,WA-Cantwell,RI-Whitehouse,NJ-Menendez,CT-Murphy,DE-Carper,NM-Heinrich,VA-Kaine,ME-King-I, and MN-Klobuchar) 39D
Step 3-win all of the Democratic held US Senate seats in Trump states (MI-Stabenow,PA-Casey,WI-Baldwin,FL-Nelson,OH-Brown,MO-McCaskill,IN-Donnelly,MT-Tester,ND-Heitkamp,and WV-Manchin)49D
Step 4 win NV-Rosen and AZ (Democrats need to nominate anyone but Deedra Abboud,Republicans need to nominate Ward)51D
If Democrats don't suceed in AL and AZ. 2020 would definitely be the year Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
Step 1-win all of the Democratic held US Senate seats in Clinton states (MA-Markey,IL-Durbin,RI-Reed,NJ-Booker,DE-Coons,OR-Merkley,NM-Udall,VA-Warner,MN-Franken,and NH-Shaheen) 48D
Step 2 win all of the Democratic held US Senate seat in Trump states (MI-Peters)MI is likely going to be a blue state in 2020. 49D
Step 3 win CO(Hickenlooper,Perlmutter,or Kennedy could defeat Gardner-R) and ME (Collins-R needs to retire or lose in the Republican primary) or NC(Brad Miller or Mike McIntyre could defeat Thillis-R) 51/52D

June 30, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-Best case and Worse case scenario for Democrats.

Best case scenario for Democrats in the 2018 US Senate Election cycle is holding onto MO (McCaskill-D),IN (Donnelly-D),ND (Heitkamp-D),MT (Tester-D),and OH (Brown-D) and picking up NV (Rosen-D) and AZ (Chris Russell-D)-wins the Democratic primary if Mark Kelly,Kyrsten Sinema,Ann Kirkpatrick,and Randy Friese-D don't run. Chris Russell (D-AZ) wins the November General Election definitely against Ward-R and possibly against Flake-R.
Worse case scenario for Democrats in the 2018 US Senate Election cycle is losing MO,IN,and ND.
Democrats guide to regaining control of the US Senate will occur in 2020.
If in 2018-Democrats hold onto IN,MO,MT,ND,and OH and pick up AZ and NV.
Democrats need to pick up ME (if Collins-R is elected Governor in 2018 or retires in 2020 and Michaud-D runs),CO or NC.
If in 2018-Democrats lose IN,MO,and ND
Democrats need to pick up ME(if Collins-R retires),CO,NC,IA (if Tom or Christie Vilsack-D runs),GA (if John Barrow-D runs) and MT (if Bullock-D runs)

June 29, 2017

Red State Democratic held Governorships Republicans have a chance of picking up in 2018,2019,2020

MT (Open-Bullock-D)Fox-R
Democrats will hold onto LA (Bel Edwards-D),NC (Cooper-D),PA (Wolf-D),and WV (Justice-D)
Democrats could pick Red State Governorships in
AZ (Ducey-R)Garcia-D
FL (Open-Scott-R)Graham-D or Gillum-D
MI (Open-Snyder-R)Whitmer-D

June 29, 2017

Blue State Republican held Governorships that Democrats are likely to pick up in 2017/2018

IL (Rauner-R)Kennedy,Pritzer,or Biss-D
ME (Open-LePage-R)Cote-D
NV (Open-Sandoval-R)Sisolak-D
NH (Sununu-R)Marchand-D
NJ (Open-Christie-R)Murphy-D
NM (Open-Martinez-R)Lujan Grishman-D
Republicans will hold onto MD(Hogan-R),MA(Baker-R),and VT (Scott-R)

June 27, 2017

2018/2020 US Senate Election-Democrats guide to a majority.

Republican to Democratic
AZ (if Flake-R loses in the primary to Ward-R)
Democratic to Republican
IN (Donnelly-R)
MO (McCaskill-R)
Democrats have a net loss of 1 seat. 47D 53R
Republican to Democratic
ME (if Collins-R retires)
CO (Gardner-R)Hickenlooper-D or whoever finishes in 2nd place in the 2018 Democratic primary for Governor.
NC (Tillis-R)Stein-D or Wood-D
TX (if Cornyn-R retires) Castro-D or O'Rourke-D runs

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