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nkpolitics1212

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Member since: Fri Jan 20, 2017, 07:10 PM
Number of posts: 2,614

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2018 WA-8CD US House Race-If the November General Election is between 2 Republicans,

Dino Rossi or Reagan Dunn, Who is favored to win?
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Fri Sep 8, 2017, 06:14 AM (0 replies)

2018 US House Election-open Republican held seats in Democratic leaning Congressional districts.

1)FL-27 ( Ros-Lehtinen-R)
2)WA-8 (Reichert-R)
FL-27 is a Lean Democratic Takeover
WA-8 is a Tossup assuming a Democrat makes it in the runnoff.
Other seats Democrats could pick up
1)AZ-2 (McSally-R)
2)CA-10 (Denham-R)
3)CA-21 (Valadao-R)
4)CA-25 (Knight-R)
5)CA-39 (Royce-R)
6)CA-45 (Walters-R)
7)CA-48 (Rohrabacher-R)
8)CA-49 (Issa-R)
9)CO-6 (Coffman-R)
10)FL-26 (Curbelo-R)
11)IL-12 (Bost-R)
12)IA-1 (Blum-R)
13)IA-3 (Young-R)
14)KS-2 (OPEN-Jenkins-R)Davis-D
15)KS-3 (Yoder-R)
16)ME-2 (Poliquin-R)
17)MI-8 (Bishop-R)
18)MN-2 (Lewis-R)
19)MN-3 (Paulsen-R)
20)MT-AL (Gianforte-R)
21)NE-2 (Bacon-R)
22)NJ-7 (Lance-R)
23)NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R)
24)NY-19 (Faso-R)
25)NY-22 (Tenney-R)
26)PA-6 (Costello-R)
27)PA-8 (Fitzpatrick-R)
28)TX-23 (Hurd-R)
29)VA-10 (Comstock-R)

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Wed Sep 6, 2017, 08:32 PM (2 replies)

Two likely scenarios for Democrats regaining control of the US Senate after 2018.

Assuming Democrats keep every Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2018 (MO,IN,ND,OH,FL,etc) and gain AZ and NV, there are two likely scenarios for Democrats regaining control of the US Senate after 2018.
1)McCain-AZ resignation or demise in late 2017/early 2018.- Special Election will take place in November 2018, Republicans are likely to nominate a Tea Party candidate, Democrats will nominate Greg Stanton or Mark Kelly.
2)A three way race in UT between Hatch-R,McMullin-I,and the Democratic nominee.(Matheson)
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Tue Sep 5, 2017, 09:39 AM (2 replies)

2018 US Senate Election-Most Vulnerable to Least Vulnerable Democratic and Republican held seats.

Democratic held US Senate seats up in 2018
Tossup
1)IN-Donnelly-D
2)MO-McCaskill-D
Slight Democratic
3)WV-Manchin-D
4)ND-Heitkamp-D
Lean Democratic
5)FL-Nelson-D
6)OH-Brown-D
7)WI-Baldwin-D
8)MT-Tester-D
Likely Democratic
9)PA-Casey-D
10)VA-Kaine-D
11)ME-King-I/D
12)MI-Stabenow-D
13)NJ-Menendez replacement-D
Solid Democratic
14)NM-Heinrich-D
15)MA-Warren-D
16)CT-Murphy-D
17)MD-Cardin-D
18)MN-Klobuchar-D
19)DE-Carper-D
20)WA-Cantwell-D
21)RI-Whitehouse-D
22)CA-Feinstein-D
23)NY-Gillibrand-D
24)VT-Sanders-I/D
25)HI-Hirono-D
Republican Held US Senate Seats up in 2018
Tossup
1)NV-Heller-R
Lean Republican
2)AZ-Flake-R
Likely Republican
3)TX-Cruz-R
Solid Republican
4)UT-Hatch-R (assuming McMullin runs as an Independent and Matheson runs as a Democratic)
5)TN-Corker-R
6)NE-Fischer-R
7)MS-Wicker-R
8)WY-Barrasso-R
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Fri Sep 1, 2017, 02:12 PM (2 replies)

US Senators that have a greater than 50 percent chance of losing re-election in 2018.

(lose by a greater than 2.5 percent margin but less than 10 percent)
AZ-Flake-R vs Sinema-D
IN-Donnelly-D vs Messer/Rokita-R
MO-McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R
NV-Heller-R vs Rosen-D
US Senators that have a 50 percent chance of losing re-election in 2018.(win or lose by a less than 2.5 percent margin)
ND-Heitkamp-D vs Cramer/Campbell-R
OH-Brown-D vs Mandel-R
US Senators that have a less than 50 percent chance of losing re-election in 2018.(win by a greater than 2.5 percent margin but less than 10 percent.)
FL-Nelson-D vs Scott-R
MI-Stabenow-D vs Ritchie-R
MT-Tester-D vs Rosendale/Stapleton-R
PA-Casey-D vs Barletta-R
TX-Cruz-R vs O'Rourke-D
VA-Kaine-D vs Stewart-R
WI-Baldwin-D vs Nicholson-R
WV-Manchin-D vs Morrisey/Jenkins-R
Democrats will end up with 46 to 48 US Senate seats after 2018.

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Fri Sep 1, 2017, 12:46 PM (3 replies)

2020 Democratic Presidential/Vice Presidential Ticket- Klobuchar/Booker or Booker/Klobuchar

Klobuchar-MN has won both statewide elections in MN (2006/2012 US Senate Races by a greater than 20 percent margin). She can turn MN into a dark blue state, MI,PA, and WI into light blue states.
She picks Booker-NJ as the VP runningmate to appeal to the progressive and moderates.
Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu Aug 31, 2017, 10:42 PM (9 replies)

Does Tim Ryan (D-OH) deserve a Democratic primary challenge for his support for corporate tax cuts?

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu Aug 31, 2017, 09:25 PM (13 replies)

The minimum and maximum number of Democratic US Senators after 2018.

Scenario 1.(Minimum)
Democrats will lose
FL-Nelson-D vs Scott-R
IN-Donnelly-D vs Messer/Rokita-R
MO-McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R
MT-Tester-D vs Rosendale-R
ND-Heitkamp-D vs Cramer-R
OH-Brown-D vs Mandel-R
WV-Manchin-D vs Morrisey/Jenkins-R
Democrats pick up
AZ-Sinema-D vs Flake/Ward-R
NV-Rosen-D vs Heller/Tarkanian-R
-5D 43D 57R

Scenario 2 (Maximum)
Democrats will hold onto FL,IN,MI,MO,MT,NJ,NM,ND,OH,PA,VA,and WV
Democrats will pick up AZ and NV
+2D 50D 50R

Scenario 3 (Likely)
Democrats pick up AZ and NV.
Democrats lose IN and MO.
48D 52R

Posted by nkpolitics1212 | Thu Aug 31, 2017, 08:06 PM (1 replies)
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