nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalWho are the Republicans going to nominate in the battleground 2024 US Senate Races?
AZ- Mark Lamb-R (Pima County Sherriff who has received an endorsement from Kari Lake and is very pro Trump especially in the 1/6 Capitol Hill Riots.) Democratic Gain.
IN- Eric Holcomb-R( IN version of Eric Greitens/Schmitt of MO). Republican Hold.
MI- James Craig-R(former Police Chief of Detroit police department.) Democratic Hold.
MT- Ryan Zinke-R or Matt Rosendale-R. Both polarizing US House members. Tossup.
NV- the only viable Republican in the 2024 NV US Senate Race is Mark Amodei. Jacky Rosen is favored to defeat Amodei-R.
OH- Matt Dolan-R(state Senator that finished in 3rd place in the 2022 OH US Senate Republican Primary) or Warren Davidson-R(US House member that occupies John Boehner’s US House seat.) Tossup.
PA-David McCormick-R and Kathy Barnette-R (both 2022 PA US Senate Republican candidates. McCormick finished in 2nd place and Barnette-R finished in 3rd place.) Democratic Hold.
WV- Alex Mooney-R Republican gain.
WI- Mike Gallagher-R Democratic hold.
The most electable Democratic candidate in the 2024 AZ US Senate General Election is Greg Stanton.
Greg Stanton is currently a US House Member from a Phoenix Suburbs Congressional District. Before serving in the US House, Stanton served 2 term as Mayor of Phoenix. Stanton is a moderate to liberal Democrat that can hold on to The Democratic base and pick up Independent voters. Stanton is likely to cut into the Sinema voter base. The Democratic primary race between Greg Stanton and Ruben Gallego would be interesting to watch.
The Republican nominee is likely to be Mark Lamb, a current Pinal County sheriff who has received an endorsement from Kari Lake, and has called the 1/6 Capitol Hill Rioters as very loving Christian people. The other Republican I like to see run is David Schweikert. Schwiekert’s AZ-1 US House District will end up going Democratic in 2024(Jevin Hodge who lost to Schwiekert in 2022 by a .8 percent margin.)
The 2024 AZ US Senate Race is going to be a 3 way race between Gallego-D vs Lamb-R vs Sinema-I.
Now that Sinema left the Democratic Party, Are the Democrats going to coalesce behind Gallego or
Are the Democrats going to see a primary between Gallego and Stanton?
The Democratic nominee for the 2024 AZ US Senate Race will get at least 46 percent of the popular vote which is how much Richard Carmona got in the 2012 AZ US Senate Race.
Who would win a 3 way race for the AZ US Senate seat in 2024?
Gallego or Stanton gets all of the Democratic votes. Will the Sinema Democrats recruit Stanton to run to defeat Gallego in the Democratic primary? If Stanton becomes the Democratic nominee, they will vote for Stanton over Sinema in the November General Election. If Gallego becomes the Democratic nominee, Giffords-Kelly,Stanton,and the rest of the AZ and National Democrats will support Gallego.
Sinema who gets the McCain Republican votes.
Masters or Lake gets all of the traditional Republican votes.
The 2024 AZ US Senate Race will be similar to the
2010 FL US Senate Race(Rubio-R vs Crist-R turned I vs Meek-D)
Which political party will win the 2024 US Senate Elections in AZ,MT,OH,PA,WV,and WI.
AZ(Sinema/Gallego-D vs Lamon-R)
MT(Tester-D vs Zinke-R)
OH(Brown-D vs Dolan-R)
PA(Casey-D vs McCormick-R)
WV(Manchin-D vs Mooney-R)
WI(Baldwin-D vs Gallagher-R)
Democrats will lose 1-2 US Senate seats in 2024 and gain 1-2 US Senate seat in 2026
2024
Democrats will lose WV and MT if Republicans field a top tier candidate that runs a gaffe free campaign.
Democrats will keep
HI
VT
MD
RI
CA
MA
NY
DE
MN
CT
WA
NM
VA
ME
NJ
NV
MI
WI
PA
AZ
OH
2026
Democrats will keep
MA
RI
DE
CO
NJ
OR
NH
VA
IL
MN
NM
MI
GA
Democrats will gain
NC if Jeff Jackson is the Democratic nominee.
ME is Susan Collins retires.
What are Tester's(D-MT) chances of getting re-elected in 2024 if the Republican nominee is
US Representatives Ryan Zinke and Matt Rosendale.
Attorney General Austin Knudsen.
Auditor Troy Downing
Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen.
These candidates are statewide elected officicials and US House officials.
2024 US Senate Elections Predictions. Democrats will trade WV and MT for TX.
Democrats will win
HI(Hirono-D)
VT(Sanders-I)
MD(Cardin-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
CA(OPEN Feinstein-D)
MA(Warren-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
DE(Carper-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
NJ(Menendez-D)
ME(King-I)
PA(Casey-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
MI(Stabenow-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
OH(Brown-D)
AZ(Sinema-D or Gallego-D)
TX(Castro-D or Kelly-D)
2024 US Senate Election Prediction. Democrats trade WV and MT for TX.
WV is a solid Republican state. Trump carried WV by a 39 percent margin in 2020 and 42 percent margin in 2016. Republicans have plenty of top tier candidates(Jim Justice,Alex Mooney,Patrick Morrisey,or Mac Warner.)
MT is a likely Republican state. Trump carried MT by a 16 percent margin in 2020 and 20 percent in 2016. Republicans have plenty of top tier candidates(Ryan Zinke or Matt Rosendale)
Manchin-WV and Tester-MT are in states that are too Republican for them to win.
TX is a lean Republican state. Trump carried TX by a 6 percent margin in 2020 and 9 percent in 2016. TX is becoming less Republican than OH. Democrats have plenty of top tier candidates to give Cruz a race of his life.(Scott Kelly-D or Julian Castro-D) I picked Scott Kelly and Julian Castro because neither of them currently occupy any elected office like Joaquin Castro and Colin Allred whom are both currently serving in the US House.
Democrats will hold onto
OH(Brown-D)
AZ(Sinema-D or Gallego-D)
MI(Stabenow-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
PA(Casey-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
ME(King-I)
NJ(Menendez-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
DE(Carper-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
MA(Warren-D)
CA(Schiff-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
MD(Cardin-D)
VT(Sanders-I)
HI(Hirono-D)
The must win states for Democrats is OH and TX. Both of these states are weak Republican seats unlike WV and MT.
Red state Democratic held US Senate seat.
MT(Tester-D)
OH(Brown-D)
WV(Manchin-D)
Which Democrat is a stronger general election candidate for the 2024 IN US Senate Election?
Frank Mrvan-D?
Andre Carson-D?
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