radius777
radius777's JournalExactly. I hope these 'neutral' European countries
don't expect America and NATO to come bail them out if Russia attacks. Unlike Ukraine, which begged to be in NATO but was blocked by corrupt Putin-appeasing European leaders - Finland and Sweden have chosen not to be in NATO. Europe as a whole (including existing NATO nations) have to start contributing more to their own defense. The reason they have so much better healthcare than we do is because our taxes have to fund a large military - that they expect will protect them should Russia attack. F that - let them start stepping up and contributing more to their own defense and to collective Western security.
Putin will simply get more brutal and level cities.
That's his pattern. He then will declare that Kyiv has fallen and will install a puppet gov't. But it will never last because any territory he has taken will (as with Kherson) constantly be contested.
Putin - who lives in a kleptocratic bubble - gravely miscalculated the response from the West and from the Ukrainians themselves. He believed that the Western response would be meek/timid like it was when he annexed Crimea. He believed that many Ukrainians would accept him as a liberator.
Even without nukes Russia has the advantage of numbers
and weaponry and won't lose the primary phase of the war.
The best case scenario is the sanctions (which are severe, and could be even stronger if we sanction gas/oil exports) steadily weakening and isolating Russia while they are mired in a guerilla war in Ukraine for years.
Sanctions will work because the Russians, especially younger, have become used to a more Western and consumerist way of life and won't be happy otherwise. It's not just about raw resources (Russia has enough food an oil to sustain itself) but about not wanting to live in a drab Soviet style existence.
Ukrainians will never accept the Russian occupiers, such a project is certain to fail.
Thus under such pressures, at some point the Putin regime will fall apart and someone else will come to power, who will relinquish Ukraine/Belarus/Georgia (and accept they will join NATO) in exchange for the West lifting the sanctions and accepting Russia back into the international community.
Fuck 'em. The USSR lost the Cold War. The West should've strangled
any remaining authoritarian elements into submission when we had the chance, and should've more forcefully supported pro-democracy and pro-market movements. Europe appeased Putin due to wanting his oil and oligarch money - that is why Ukraine and Georgia are not in NATO like they should be.
Putin isn't 'scared' of NATO or Ukraine. He's jealous that the world largely turned Westward after the USSR fell. Even many Russians love the Western consumerism they are suddenly going to be cut off from.
The time to help Ukraine was years ago
when they should've been admitted to NATO and the EU, but were blocked by corrupted European countries (Germany especially). Putin would not attack a NATO country. His specialty is in compromising the border of nations he views as wanting to join NATO so that they would not qualify for membership (a country must have control of its borders).
We can't do a no-fly zone because that would bring us into direct conflict with Russia. We can't 'partially' enter conflict with Russia. We either enter fully or we don't.
It's too late to give Ukraine any advanced weapon systems such as patriot missiles - the country is going to be occupied by Russians within a week or so. The only weapons we can give them are the stingers and javelins and others that can be hidden easily, operated with little skill etc to be used in a guerilla war.
Agree, this is the real story,
that Gary Kasparov also speaks to. The West - especially Europe - long appeased Putin which is why Ukraine and Georgia are not in NATO/EU and why this attack is occuring. European leaders were corrupted by the oligarchs and by Putin's oil/gas. Europe tended to view America as the bad guy and Putin as unfairly demonized by the US.
Establishment 'experts' have failed in their analysis and it's time to listen to those like Kozyrev and Kasparov who have a better perspective on how Russians and Putin thinks.
Putin has long been a thug - but he was normalized and appeased just like Trump was.
Agree, we need to greatly expand NATO
to include all of the countries within the free world, including Japan, South Korea and Australia.
We need the best and most modern weaponry and fighting forces.
We need to make it clear that any attempt to threaten the free world will be met with certain doom.
Peace is different from appeasement.
Your threads seem to promote the strength and power of Russia/Putin while minimizing ours.
To be clear, NATO is the most powerful military alliance the world has ever known.
Russia is the aggressor nation here, and would deserve any reaction it receives, should it attack a NATO nation - or commit genocide in Ukraine which would force the West to react.
NATO is the defense force of Western civilization.
Biden, Harris et al have stated forcefully and repeatedly that 'we will defend every inch of NATO territory' and NATO Sec General has activated the NATO response force to bolster NATO's eastern flank (Poland and the Baltics).
An attack against any NATO country is an attack on the West (not just that particular country) and would trigger Article 5 which states that an attack on one is an attack on all. NATO (and the US) would indeed enter direct conflict with Russia at that point, which does not mean nuclear warfare, which is just something Putin says to scare the West out of the conflict. Putin/Russia would not use nukes knowing we have many nukes aimed directly at their major cities and it would be the end of him and his country.
If Russia commits genocide the West will go in.
It's all about public support. Before Putin invaded, there was still alot of anti-American cynicism in Europe, ie that we were alarmists who were unfairly demonizing poor Pootie, whose oil/gas they love. But now that everything we said has come to pass, the West is thoroughly united. It's just a matter of time before the West would be unable to stand by - whether or not Ukraine is in NATO (which they begged to be for many years, and this would not be happening if they were). NATO is simply a military alliance - not some final word on which countries go in or not.
Putin/Russia are bluffing about nukes... to scare the West out of the conflict. Even if there is direct conflict between the West and Russia, Putin will not use nukes, knowing we have many aimed right at all of Russia's major cities and it would be an instant end to him and his country.
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