October 21, 2016

Suspect Massive DDoS today is practice for Nov 8

Consider: internet down, fake reports of fraud, faked documents online alleging fraud.

Point isn't to change election. Point is to sow confusion and doubt so Trumpists think they have been cheated.

October 19, 2016

Election Model 10/18/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 88.53 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 320.2
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 323.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 339

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.65 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 327.99
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 331.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 343

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 6.99


Approaching the consensus 7 point lead in the polling averages.

For my next updates, i'm going to try and add some graphics and state by state projections. It's time.

October 18, 2016

Election Model Update 10/18/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 88.53 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 319.52
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 323.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 327

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 91.16 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 326.12
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 329.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 329

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 6.87

Comments: Drift and Instantaneous model continue to converge. Clinton national lead approaching that estimated by national surveys.

October 18, 2016

I could use another good Oppo dump soon

I am finally done laughing from the last few weeks of oppo dumps. I need my fix, dammit.

October 17, 2016

Anybody want a list of the Trump companies operating in Russia that he denies exist?

Check this out:

https://twitter.com/funder/status/788040411407343618

October 17, 2016

Monmouth Poll H50 T38

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_101716/

Normally, I'd tell everyone to average their polls but instead...

October 17, 2016

Conspiracists on twitter freaking out under #Assange hashtag

Lot of rumors of an extradition at this point.

It is almost certainly just conspiracy nuts doing what conspiracy nuts do, but would be interesting if related to Roger Stone's weird tweet today...

October 16, 2016

Why is Roger Stone threatening the Trump campaign?

This is weird.

https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/787774752576245760

October 16, 2016

Election Model Update 10/16/2016

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.47 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.74
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 324

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 91.68 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 324.35
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 325.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 307

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 5.76

October 13, 2016

Jebus Christ, is Podesta's Gmail STILL compromised?

https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/786621649642598400

So someone on 4chan requested a password reset for his twitter (to be sent to his gmail), posted to 4chan and said if any of you are monitoring this gmail account, hack his twitter.

John, seriously, get some IT help. Your're fortunate your emails are so boring.