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HerbChestnut's Journal
HerbChestnut's Journal
October 29, 2015

This is what it's all about, folks.


October 27, 2015

The Iowa polls out today used the same methodology.

There's multiple threads about the Monmouth poll, but here's the methodology of the Loras College poll.

Note on Methodology:
The Loras College Poll surveyed 1,000 likely 2016 caucus voters (500 likely Republican voters, 500 likely Democratic voters). The survey was conducted October 19-22, 2015. Both subsamples of party caucus participants include no-party registrants who passed likely voter screen (see below). Margin of error for full sample results is +/- 3.1 percent, while for the party subsamples the margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent. All results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval.

Survey conducted with a random sample of registered voters, with phone numbers drawn from official Iowa Secretary of State voter files of those who voted in either the 2012 or 2014 general election or who had registered since December 1, 2014.

Likely caucus voter was defined as those indicating they were “definitely or very likely” to vote in the 2016 Iowa Caucus. Those indicating they were “somewhat likely” were subjected to further screen questions regarding their general interest in politics. Only those indicating they were “very interested” in politics were then accepted within the sample as a likely caucus voter.

The statewide sample was balanced for gender and divided evenly across Iowa’s four congressional districts. Age was balanced to approximate past caucus entrance polling.

Survey included both landlines and cell phones.

The survey was conducted using live operator interviews through a contracted professional call center.

Script development and methodology used for the survey received input from Republican campaign consultant Brian Dumas and Democratic campaign consultant Dave Heller.

What this means is that Hillary is winning with old people who typically show up to vote. Every poll out there shows Bernie winning the youth vote and usually by wide margins. Younger voters, GET OUT AND VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. Same goes to anyone who supports Bernie but doesn't typically get involved in the political process. This is what his campaign is all about. VOTE.
October 27, 2015

76% of the people in the new Monmouth Iowa poll were over the age of 50.

Hillary does not have a 41 point lead in Iowa. Two age brackets where Hillary garners most of her support were over sampled. To emphasize this point, only 7% of those polled were between ages 18-34. Does that sound like a representative poll to you?


October 21, 2015

Bernie on Joe's decision.

From Facebook:

Joe Biden, a good friend, has made the decision that he feels is best for himself, his family and the country. I thank the vice president for a lifetime of public service and for all that he has done for our nation. I look forward to continuing to work with him to address the major crises we face. He understands the need to rebuild the middle class; and to address income and wealth inequality, a corrupt campaign finance system, climate change, racial justice, immigration reform and the need for publicly-funded higher education.

Here's a link to the image posted along with the message. ...Nevermind about the link. Can't get it to work.
October 18, 2015

Did Media Declaring Hillary Won Debate Influence Polls? -TYT

Thought this was a pretty good segment, and despite the title was actually pretty fair to both sides by the end. Worth watching through even if you might not agree with the sentiment.


October 14, 2015

Could it be?

That the times really are a-changing? According to most of the media pundits, Hillary Clinton won last night's debate. And you know what, in the traditional sense they might be correct. She didn't make any obvious mistakes, she was firm when she needed to be, and she even got a few laughs. But what if that's not enough anymore? What if people are just tired of establishment politicians and have come to expect what Hillary delivered last night?

Hillary Clinton has been around for a long time. Everybody knows that. And at this point in her political career, so long as she doesn't make any eye popping mistakes she is considered by the media as being the prominent force in Democratic politics. But if this election cycle has proven anything it's that voters are fed up with the same old same old. Many folks, myself included, view Hillary Clinton as a relic of the past and someone who represents an old way of political thinking. And the media is tied up in that.

But what if people want something different? Bernie Sanders's campaign is no fluke. He's managed to get a quarter of the vote so far without many pundits giving him a chance. What if he doesn't need to come across as 'smooth-talking' and 'polished' like many in the media think he should? He raised over $1million last night during the debate in what might traditionally be viewed as an 'alright' performance. And despite what the pundits are saying, it appears the people viewed Sanders as the winner, though we will get a better idea of that in the days to come.

The point of this post isn't to demagogue Clinton in any way as I believe she did a pretty good job last night. Nor is it to promote Sanders, whom I openly support. I just wanted to explore whether or not people are looking for different things in a candidate than they might have in previous elections. So far that seems to be the case.

October 9, 2015

Focus-group millennials bash Donald Trump, embrace Bernie Sanders

So a subsidiary of CNN put together a focus group of millennials from swing states to discuss the candidates. Here's a few excerpts from the article and the link to the article itself.


Washington (CNN)Donald Trump is, in turns, an angry bomb-dropper, an emotional reactionary and an embarrassing jokester. Hillary Clinton is offensive and out of touch to some, and a return to the prosperity of the 1990's to others.

Those are some of the findings of a new focus groups of millennials commissioned by The HLN Millennials Project. HLN is a sister network of CNN. The project interviewed groups of likely voters without strong party allegiances aged between 18 and 34 -- 10 who lean toward the Republican Party and 10 who lean toward the Democratic Party -- in three swing-state cities: Columbus, Ohio, Orlando, Florida and Denver, Colorado.

The interviews reveal that these younger Americans are awaiting a Republican candidate to take on Trump, who leads all national and early state polls, and are enamored with Bernie Sanders, who is mounting a surprisingly successful campaign against Clinton.

The article goes on to say that the focus group disliked Hillary because of her association with Benghazi (Yeah...I know...), the email fiasco, and all the criticisms you typically hear about her. But look at what one of the focus group members had to say about Bernie...

The voters had much kinder words for Sanders, the Vermont insurgent who promises a "political revolution."

"I love him; he's inspired me to believe in politics once again. He's the JFK of our day coming with logic and practicality on the issues," said another Colorado Democrat.

*This* is why Bernie needs to be the Democratic nominee. He is inspiring hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of people to become involved in the political process that might otherwise not be involved. Simply put, folks are tired of establishment politics. They want someone who comes of as genuine.

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