HappyinLA
HappyinLA's JournalFun Polls for $100, Alex
You're a week away from an election, and you have "honesty" numbers that look like this...
Candidate A: 45% Honest, 50% Dishonest
vs
Candidate B: 66% Honest, 27% Dishonest
whom do you think wins?
As it turns out, Candidate A. 379 Electoral Votes to 159.
Seems to me that "honesty" isn't that great a predictive force for you call an election, even a week away, let alone months.
The falacy(?) of the fickle superdelegates
So I decided to do a little research on the superdelegates of 2008 and look into the whole "they switched to Obama!" thing.
Here is what I found...
Yes, some superdelegates switched from Hillary To Obama. Only it's not as simple as that.
First, only 50 switched. At the time the count was roughly HRC 296 / BO 428 (this is superdelegates only) out of 823 total. When the 50 switched the totals became 246/478.
And the 50 who switched, only did so after Obama was able to gather half of the supers (~412) first. In essence the superdelegates had their own private primary and Obama won.
They didn't switch because of popular vote count, or who won what State. It was entirely a case of first person to win the majority of superdelegates.
In 2016, there are 712 superdelegates. Half would be 356. Hillary already has 355. So the though of any high number of Distinguished party leaders, Governors, Senators, Representatives and DNC members suddenly changing their votes is practically nil.
Thought this might be interesting
Here is a little something I found. Looks like it takes the state polls to determine how the delegate counts would shake down in the primary.
Enjoy.
[link:http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php|
New Franklin & Marshall PA poll
Just in from Pennsylvania.
Clinton 52%
Sanders 18%
O'Malley 0%
More fun with Kim Davis
So my wife knows the two ladies who went in to get their marriage license the other day, Carmen and Shannon Wampler-Collins, and it looks like their fight isn't over yet. It seems that what Kim did was deface the license, crossed out her name and some other stuff while writing in other things. The ACLU is worried that this invalidates the document since it's an official form and you can't go making changes on whim to it.
So the ladies are worried their license is worthless now. The ALCU is working on how to respond to this in court.
I'll have more info after tomorrow, my wife is going to interview Carmen tomorrow night on her talk show, so hopefully I can update this afterwords.
The reality of the new Quinnipac poll
Florida
HRC 48%
BS 15% -33
JB 11% -37
Ohio
HRC 47%
BS 17% -30
JB 14% -33
Pennsylvania
HRC 45%
BS 19% -26
JB 17% -28
Forget about Bernie catching Hillary for the nomination, he needs to be careful he doesn't finish 3rd behind a guy who hasn't declared.
Fun items from the PPP NC Poll
Looking over the internals on this. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_81915.pdf
1) NC folks love them some Ben Carson and Carly Fionrina. Looks like they are the only ones on the plus side when it comes to Favorable/Unfavorable. They basically hate everyone. HRC is 34/57 for a -23 and BS is 28/40 for a -12.
2) Best question,
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Jeb
Bush, and Donald Trump running as an
independent who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton 38%
Jeb Bush 28%
Donald Trump 27%
They are already starting to the play the "Donald runs as an independent" fun.
3) The numbers aren't great for either HRC or BS when it comes to head to head against Republicans, basically NC will be a fight in the general. Which means my poor family is going to see non stop ads for months on end.
Interesting
If you were to look at the latest HuffPost Pollster trends, HRC is cruising along just fine. What's interesting to see how they suddenly show how close the 2nd and 3rd place folks are. Considering 3rd place is a guy who's not even in the race. But of course, in poll world every knows that trailing by 35.5 means more than only leading the guy behind you by 6.1. 
And in a game of Outliers are fun, look at that Zogby poll from 8/3 - 8/4 where Biden is #2 by a +6.
But in the end, it's another day, another poll with no significant movement. A few more of these and I'd expect Rove himself to show up and tell us that Ohio is still in play, and HRC is actually losing.
See Hillary just nabbed another endorsement.
This one from U.S. Senator Tom Harkin. How long before we hear Tom isn't a progressive? Or is a corporatist?
New Iowa numbers from PPP
Released today, 8/10, polling from 8/7-8/9
via ideology.
Hillary 52% overall support
49% identifying at very liberal
57% identifying as liberal
54% identifying as moderate
32% identifying as somewhat conservative
43% identifying as very conservative
Sanders 25% overall support
39% identifying at very liberal
22% identifying as liberal
18% identifying as moderate
26% identifying as somewhat conservative
16% identifying as very conservative
So +27 overall, +10 very liberal, +35 liberal, +6 somewhat conservative and +27 very conservative
And head to head, straight up, to be the nominee
HRC 52%
BS 25%
So +27 straight up
I thought BS was going to crush it in Iowa?
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Member since: Thu Oct 3, 2013, 12:08 PMNumber of posts: 129
