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Member since: Mon Apr 21, 2008, 10:17 PM
Number of posts: 20,450

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538.com: BS is even less competitive than he appears

Bernie Sanders’s supporters are fond of the hypothesis that Democratic superdelegates, the elected leaders and party officials who currently support Hillary Clinton by a lopsided-doesn’t-even-begin-to-describe-it 469 to 31, are going to bow to the “will of the people” if Sanders ends up winning more pledged delegates than Clinton by June.

There’s just one hiccup in this logic: Sanders fans seem to be conflating the pledged delegate count and the “will of the voters,” when in fact the two are far from interchangeable.

Sanders’s reliance on extremely low-turnout caucus states has meant the pledged delegate count overstates his share of votes. To date, Sanders has captured 46 percent of Democrats’ pledged delegates but just 42 percent of raw votes. So even if Sanders were to draw even in pledged delegates by June — which is extremely unlikely — Clinton could be able to persuade superdelegates to stick with her by pointing to her popular vote lead.

Sanders already has a nearly impossible task ahead of him in trying to erase Clinton’s pledged delegate lead. He’s down by 212 delegates, meaning he’d need to win 56 percent of those remaining to nose in front. He has dominated caucus states such as Idaho and Washington, but only two caucus states — Wyoming and North Dakota — remain on the calendar. What’s more, the biggest states left — New York and California — favor Clinton demographically.

Including caucus results, Clinton leads Sanders by almost 2.4 million raw votes, 9.4 million to just more than 7 million, according to The Green Papers. So then, what would would it take for Sanders to overtake Clinton in the popular vote by the end of the primaries in June?

More here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-is-even-further-behind-in-votes-than-he-is-in-delegates/
Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Fri Apr 8, 2016, 12:04 PM (16 replies)

HRC Supporters: BS more likely to beat the Republican Nominee Meme going UNCHALLENGED!!

...and as a recent HRC convert, it's driving me mad! This meme has gone unchecked not only by the so-called pundits, but it has also gone unchecked by HRC supporters themselves. I think the only Republican challenger who does a bit better against HRC is Kasich, but he has ZERO chance of winning the primary. Now, of course he could be put on the ticket as the VP and that might help.

We've got to do better in challenging these false memes.

More importantly, the argument should be that regardless of who is more electable when put up against the Republican nominee, we are not yet in the general election cycle, so these polls are meaningless. HOWEVER, that BS and his sycophants, along with M$M commentators, continue to make this assertion could conceivably help BS build a case against HRC, and that's not good.

We've got to do better in challenging these false memes.

Thanks in advance for listening.

Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Thu Apr 7, 2016, 11:44 AM (17 replies)

Question: If people are so certain that Trump would beat HRC (or Sanders), then why...

are Republicans so freaked out about him?

They must know something we don't.

Honestly, I don't think Trump beats either of our candidates.

I just don't.

Note: About the polls? They don't matter much right now because the political landscape changes daily.

Frankly, Cruz and Rubio are much more frightening to me.
Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Sat Feb 27, 2016, 11:10 PM (62 replies)

Sanders supporters - IF Hillary wins the nomination & she chooses a solid liberal like Sherrod Brown

...will you support the ticket?

Why or why not?
Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Sat Feb 27, 2016, 09:55 PM (24 replies)

"Black people are strong and resilient. They are not to be pitied"! Yes, Tweety, yes!!!!!!

Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Sat Feb 27, 2016, 08:13 PM (5 replies)

Newsflash: Southern and Western states are more populous and representative of the Democratic Party!

I see how some people are belittling the Southern primaries, but they fail to realize and/or accept two truisms:

First, Southern and Western states are more populous and diverse, a true reflection of the Democratic Party electorate.


Second, NO Democratic Party candidate--I don't care if it's Jesus H. Christ himself--can win ANY nomination without the support of a sizable portion of minority voters or women.

As a child of the American South, I resent the bigotry. I resent the arrogance.

I ask that we respect all Democratic voters, whether a supporter of Bernie or Hillary supporter

...or neither.
Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Sat Feb 27, 2016, 08:08 PM (29 replies)

HUGE thanks and appreciation to Bill Maher and Michael Eric Dyson!

They made cogent arguments regarding race, Hillary Clinton, and the politics of destruction.

They both explained perfectly why race (over class) matters and why the black electorate (in general) vote strategically and practically.

As Charles Blow brilliantly explains:


And Jonathan Capehart's outstanding piece:


Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Fri Feb 26, 2016, 11:05 PM (2 replies)

More explosive story on Peyton Manning!


I've never liked this Republican asshole, but this is a new low with racist actions on behalf of this jerk.
Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:50 AM (4 replies)

It boggles my mind that we black folk forgot about how racist the Clinton camp was in 2008!

I just came back to say this.

Stockholm Syndrome? No.

Bad memory and too quick to forgive? Yes.


In reference to MLK, Jr. - paraphrasing from Hillary: "It look LBJ to get it done, not pretty speeches"

YouTube of her own words:

Regarding "hard working white people" from Hillary:

The above includes Bill Clinton's disgusting remarks about Jesse Jackson's run for president. So disgusting that Jim Clyburn had to call him and tell him to STOP:


More disgusting racist Hillary digs at Obama (invoking Bobby Kennedy's assassination) after she knew he had been receiving unprecedented death threats:


(This incident led to the Kennedy family's endorsement of Obama!)

And don't forget the racist dog whistles from the Clinton camp: Geraldine Ferraro's assertion that Obama's race is the only deciding factor for why he is doing well--not his merit, not his talent, not his intelligence:


Ed Rendell was also despicable:


And Paul Begala and James Carville's behavior was absolutely HORRID!


Why don't the majority of blacks remember this racist crap from the Clinton camp? And more important, why are they forgiving them for their horrible behavior?

Note: I don't support ANY Democratic Party nominee at this point--not Bernie, not Hillary, not O'Malley, and certainly not Webb. None of them have shown me that they give a shit about black folks; they only want the black vote.
Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Fri Oct 16, 2015, 09:36 AM (61 replies)

Fucking lying Prosecutor just said that all black witnesses testified that they saw Brown charge!



When that reporter asked him what evidence he has, he says "he doesn't know". What a fucking liar!!!
Posted by Liberal_Stalwart71 | Mon Nov 24, 2014, 10:00 PM (71 replies)
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