democrattotheend
democrattotheend's JournalI've been in a deposition all day - what did I miss?
Did anyone drop out?
Any new polls?
Any e-mail leaks confirming that Hillary is in fact the devil?
Any new Trump tapes?
Any new Republicans dumping Trump?
Funny comment at RedState
In a thread alleging that the Clinton campaign may have actively worked to get Trump and Cruz elevated in the Republican primaries (similar to the McCaskill strategy in 2012), someone said this:
[div class="excerpt"
I remember in 2008 when there was something called "Operation Chaos" that had Republican voters crossing over in the primaries in order to get an extreme liberal, inexperienced Senator from IL nominated to the Democratic ticket because he was so easy to defeat. How did that work out.
Yeah, how did that work out for you?
Breaking: Rob Portman withdraws Trump endorsement
Just heard on CNN. Will post link when I have one.
Trump could still be replaced on the ballot in some states if he withdraws
In 2002, the New Jersey supreme court allowed Democrats to replace Torricelli with Lautenberg after Torricelli withdrew. I believe that was in early October or late September. And then in Minnesota, Democrats were required to replace Wellstone on the ballot after he died, and ballots were reprinted. So I don't think it would be too late if Trump dropped out even though the filing deadlines have passed. But most likely votes that have already been cast for Trump would not count for his replacement. Again, that would depend on the state.
Am I the only one not super-excited about GropeGate?
I hate to be a debbie downer, but I am kind of annoyed about this scandal because it means that Hillary can't win.
I don't mean that she won't be elected president. I think she will barring some earth-shattering revelation, which is unlikely but not impossible given all the leaks of private e-mails and conversations.
But the fallout from the Billy Bush audio makes it easy to frame the election as Trump losing rather than Hillary winning. It detracts from the significance of the first woman president being elected, and it makes it harder for her to claim a mandate for her leadership and agenda. She will now essentially win by default, because too many people consider Trump unacceptable. And it will mean little to no honeymoon period.
It pisses me off, because she was going to win anyway, and didn't need this to detract from her accomplishment.
Frank Luntz focus group results: pretty brutal
Who won tonight's debate?
• Mike Pence: 21
• Tim Kaine: 4
• Tie/Neither: 3
Luntz is a GOP pollster but he had Hillary winning last week.
I think last night will hurt Trump more than the 1st 2012 debate hurt Obama
I've noticed a lot of people, mostly Republicans trying to console themselves, pointing out that President Obama came back from his disastrous first debate with Romney in 2012. I think it's a bad comparison for a couple reasons.
First of all, Obama didn't sound half as ridiculous in the first debate with Romney as Trump sounded last night. What he said wasn't terrible, the problem was almost all in the delivery. Obama may have given a shaky performance but he didn't make any major gaffes like bragging about defrauding the government or calling it smart business to root for the housing market to fail.
More importantly, Obama was an incumbent president in 2012. He had been president for four years; he didn't have to make comfortable with the idea of him as president. Trump, in contrast, is a political novice who had to prove that he knew what he was talking about and come across as presidential so people could envision him as president. He not only failed to do that but confirmed many people's suspicions that he doesn't take the job or the office seriously.
POLL: North Carolina HighPoint University: Clinton +1 with leaners, +2 w/o
Likely voters with leaners:
Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 10
Likely voters w/o leaners:
Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 8
http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2016/09/47memoA.pdf
404 likely voters, landline and cell phone, conducted 9/17 - 9/22
4.9% MOE, sample weighted based on 2008 and 2012 demographics
NEW POLLS 9/26
There are a bunch so I will just repost the graphic from 538:
I don't know Seltzer & Company, but 538 rates them A+. Are they the pollster for the Bloomberg poll?
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