n2doc

n2doc's Journal

December 24, 2015

Nature's Warning Signal

Complex systems like ecological food webs, the brain, and the climate all give off a characteristic signal when disaster is around the corner.

by NATALIE WOLCHOVER

Nestled in the northern Wisconsin woods, Peter Lake once brimmed with golden shiners, fatheads, and other minnows, which plucked algae-eating fleas from the murky water. Then, seven years ago, a crew of ecologists began stepping up the lake’s population of predatory largemouth bass. To the 39 bass already present, they added 12, then 15 more a year later, and another 15 a month after that. The bass hunted down the minnows and drove survivors to the rocky shoreline, which gave fleas free rein to multiply and pick the water clean. Meanwhile, bass hatchlings—formerly gobbled up by the minnows—flourished, and in 2010, the bass population exploded to more than 1,000. The original algae-laced, minnow-dominated ecosystem was gone, and the reign of bass in clear water began.

Today, largemouth bass still swim rampant. “Once that top predator is dominant, it’s very hard to dislodge,” said Stephen Carpenter, an ecologist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who led the experiment. “You could do it, but it’s gonna cost you.”

The Peter Lake experiment demonstrated a well-known problem with complex systems: They are sensitive beasts. Just as when the Earth periodically plunges into an ice age, or when grasslands turn to desert, fisheries suddenly collapse, or a person slumps into a deep depression, systems can drift toward an invisible edge, where only a small change is needed to touch off a dramatic and often disastrous transformation. But systems that exhibit such “critical transitions” tend to be so complicated and riddled with feedback loops that experts cannot hope to calculate in advance where their tipping points lie—or how much additional tampering they can withstand before snapping irrevocably into a new state.

At Peter Lake, though, Carpenter and his team saw the critical transition coming. Rowing from trap to trap counting wriggling minnows and harvesting other data every day for three summers, the researchers captured the first field evidence of an early-warning signal that is theorized to arise in many complex systems as they drift toward their unknown points of no return.

more

http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/12/a-warning-system-built-into-nature/421836/

December 24, 2015

Move by Rubio leaves U.S. without ambassador to Mexico

By most accounts, Roberta Jacobson’s confirmation as U.S. ambassador to Mexico should have been a shoo-in.

Fluent in Spanish, expert in Latin American politics and skilled in cross-border trade negotiations, the career diplomat was nominated by President Obama to take over the crucial foreign service post six months ago.

After working on Latin American affairs for both Democratic and Republican administrations for three decades, Jacobson has broad bipartisan support in Congress.

Mexico expressed enthusiastic approval and prepared to welcome her to Mexico City. The Republican-led Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the nomination and sent it to the full Senate.

But the nomination is in limbo, hostage to GOP presidential candidate Marco Rubio’s staunch opposition to Obama's diplomatic opening with Cuba, which Jacobson helped negotiate as assistant secretary of State.

more

http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-ambassador-blocked-20151223-story.html

December 24, 2015

How Close Are We to 'Dangerous' Planetary Warming?

by Michael Mann

In the wake of the COP 21 UN Climate Summit in Paris (see this recent Huffington Post piece for my take on the agreement), a number of important questions still remain unanswered. Take for example the commitment reached by the 197 participating nations to limit warming below the "dangerous" level of 2C relative to pre-industrial time (neglecting for the time being the aspirational goal of a substantially lower 1.5C limit acknowledged in recognition of the danger posed to low-lying island nations). The question immediately arises: How much time do we have until we reach the danger zone? How close are we to the 2C warming limit?

It has been widely reported that 2015 will be the first year where temperatures climbed to 1C above the pre-industrial. That might make it seem like we've got quite a ways to go until we breach the 2C limit. But the claim is wrong. We exceeded 1C warming more than a decade ago. The problem is that here, and elsewhere, an inappropriate baseline has been invoked for defining the "pre-industrial." The warming was measured relative to the average over the latter half of the 19th century (1850-1900). In other words, the base year implicitly used to define "pre-industrial" conditions is 1875, the mid-point of that interval. Yet the industrial revolution and the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations associated with it, began more than a century earlier.

Unfortunately, even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has fallen victim to this problematic convention in their latest (5th) assessment report. The key graphic (Fig. 1 below) in the Summary for Policy Makers ("SPM&quot of the report measures net anthropogenic (i.e. human-generated) carbon emissions and the resulting warming that can be expected. Both the emissions and warming and measured relative to an 1870 baseline.

The various future emissions scenarios are called "RCP"s (for "Representative Concentration Pathways&quot and they reflect varying assumptions regarding our future efforts to limit carbon emissions. The "RCP 2.6" scenario (dark blue), the most aggressive of the scenarios (from the standpoint of ramping down carbon emissions), corresponds to limiting net carbon emissions to about 3000 Gigatons (3 trillion tons) of CO2. We've already burned through about 2000 Gigatons, i.e. we have expended two thirds of our apparent "carbon budget".

more

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/how-close-are-we-to-dangerous-planetary-warming_b_8841534.html

December 24, 2015

SolarCity stopping Nevada sales, installations after PUC ruling

By Sean Whaley
Review-Journal Capital Bureau
CARSON CITY — One of the largest rooftop-solar companies in the nation announced Wednesday it is ceasing its sales and installations in Nevada following the adoption of a new net metering rate for rooftop-solar customers by the Nevada Public Utilities Commission.

"This is a very difficult decision but Governor (Brian) Sandoval and his PUC leave us no choice," said SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive. "The people of Nevada have consistently chosen solar, but yesterday their state government decided to end customer choice, damage the state's economy, and jeopardize thousands of jobs.

"The PUC has protected NV Energy's monopoly, and everyone else will lose," he said. "We have no alternative but to cease Nevada sales and installations, but we will fight this flawed decision on behalf of our Nevada customers and employees."

The company will continue to service its existing Nevada customers.

more

http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/energy/solarcity-stopping-nevada-sales-installations-after-puc-ruling

December 24, 2015

Chelsea Manning spends sixth Christmas in prison with no end in sight

Ed Pilkington in New York

Chelsea Manning, whose role as the source of one of the largest leaks of US government state secrets in history earned her a 35-year prison sentence, will be spending her sixth Christmas in military custody with no end in sight for her ordeal.

In an article in the Guardian, the army private writes movingly about the feeling of detachment that engulfs her at this time of year. As her detention lengthens from her original arrest in Iraq in May 2010, she says that she is prone to existential doubts in what she describes as her “artificially-imposed stasis”.

“The chasm between me and the outside world feels like it’s getting wider and wider, and all I can do is let it happen. … I sometimes feel less than empty; I feel non-existent.”

It is unclear how many more Christmases Manning can expect to spend behind bars for having transferred about 750,000 files of US state secrets to the open information website WikiLeaks. She was sentenced to 35 years in August 2013 having been found guilty on 20 counts, including six under the controversial Espionage Act of 1917.

more

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/24/chelsea-manning-christmas-prison-whistleblower-wikileaks

December 24, 2015

Mark Hamill skips 'Star Wars' promo to visit sick kids

CNN)"Star Wars" actor Mark Hamill skipped a recent promotional appearance for "The Force Awakens" to visit sick kids at a British hospital.

The actor, who portrays Luke Skywalker in the films, posted an image from the visit to his Twitter account.

It shows a young boy he identifies as "Oscar" listening to his heart with a toy stethoscope.

"Thanks for the check-up, Oscar," Hamill wrote.

At the time, the other cast members of the new "Star Wars" flick were taping an appearance on "The Graham Norton Show," Hamill told The Independent newspaper.

"Star Wars movies are meant to be a couple of hours of diversion from reality, and we need that," the newspaper quoted him as saying. "They are optimistic and hopeful stories."

But, he said, such things are "very trivial," compared with bringing comfort to ailing kids.

more

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/24/entertainment/mark-hamill-star-wars-children-hospital-feat/

December 24, 2015

Teen hockey game canceled after Zamboni driver destroys rink

A Zamboni driver is now in the penalty box for his on-ice antics.

Royal Canadian Mounted Police arrested a man in his 30s and charged him with impaired driving, resisting arrest and refusing a breathalyzer after he wrecked an ice rink in Manitoba on Saturday, CBC reports.

The incident happened during the second intermission of a game in Ste. Anne.

"On his first lap he struck the gate where the Zamboni drives onto the ice, and broke the boards and also broke pieces off the actual Zamboni," Martin Kintscher, manager of the Seine River Snipers bantam team, told CBC. "One piece got stuck under the Zamboni, which left a ridge on the ice with every lap."

Authorities arrived and arrested the man, who was not identified. But the Zamboni driver insisted that the rink was in great condition.

more

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/12/23/teen-hockey-game-canceled-after-zamboni-driver-destroys-rink.html?intcmp=hplnws

December 24, 2015

Following Sanders Investigation, Vermont Secures Discount on Life-Saving Drug

BURLINGTON, Vt., Dec. 23 – Following up on U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) investigation on the skyrocketing cost of generic drugs and letters the senator sent to officials urging them to seek a discount on naloxone, Vermont’s attorney general signed a deal with Amphastar Pharmaceuticals for a 20 percent rebate on the drug used by first-responders as an opiate overdose antidote.

“The opioid abuse epidemic in our country is a public health emergency that must be addressed, and no company should jeopardize the progress being made in tackling this emergency by overcharging for a critically important drug like naloxone,” said Sanders, who serves as the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Primary Health and Retirement Security. “It is a tragedy for my state of Vermont. It is a tragedy all over this country. The number of heroin deaths are growing very, very significantly.”

Drug overdose deaths hit a record high last year in the United States. Tragically, that included 83 Vermonters.

Vermont Attorney General Bill Sorrell reached an agreement last Friday with Amphastar Pharmaceuticals to address concerns with the 2014 price increase of the opioid antidote drug naloxone. Under the agreement, Vermont will receive a $6 rebate per vial.

more

http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/following-sanders-investigation-vermont-secures-discount-on-life-saving-drug-

December 24, 2015