Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBTRTN Super Tuesday Preview: Bernie Wins Big, But Biden Keeps it More Than Close Enough
Born To Run The Numbers has just released its predictions for the Super Tuesday primaries, with projections for vote and delegate allocation in each state contest, and provided perspective on how the results will shape the race going forward:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-super-tuesday-preview-bernie-wins.html
Excerpts: "The key question for Super Tuesday is a simple one: how big a bounce will Joe Biden receive, by virtue of his mammoth win in South Carolina? Because this, in turn, will define the size of the lead Bernie Sanders will have, and that, in turn, will dictate whether it is all over (if that gap is huge) or whether Biden has a chance to make it a race over the balance of the primary season, or at the convention, if its close enough...
"It would be hard for Warren or Bloomberg to look at these results and come away with any valid rationale to carry on. Bidens doubling of Bloombergs totals essentially undercuts the reason Bloomberg got into the race. Sanders more than doubling Warrens totals speaks for itself... We could (and should) be down to a two-person race by Wednesday morning...
"Can Biden catch up, or keep Sanders under the 1,991 first-ballot-win threshold in a two-person race? Facing only a gap of 150 or fewer delegates coming out of Super Tuesday, and a tighter field, the answer is almost certainly a resounding yes. Ive run models out the rest of the primary season, making assumptions on areas of strength for Sanders (New England, out west), and Biden (the South, Delaware, Pennsylvania) and Biden can indeed keep Bernie under the 1,991 threshold and also keep him reasonably close...But if Sanders significantly outperforms the BTRTN expectations tomorrow, winning some of Bidens states and widening the gap in California, it is a much different picture."
"Here are the BTRTN headlines on the outcomes..."
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TwilightZone
(25,512 posts)538's forecast is around 508 delegates for Sanders vs. the 550 BTRTN is forecasting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tgards79
(1,415 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided