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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:17 PM Feb 2020

I haven't decided for whom I will be voting but I've decided how I will decide.

My rule from the beginning has been which candidate has the best chance to beat Trump. The results so far have not answered my question of which candidate fits that bill.

Since I have to vote no later than Tuesday, I've decided to wait until after the South Carolina primary this weekend. Whichever candidate does best with the AA vote in South Carolina gets my vote.

If we are to beat Trump, AA Democrats must turnout in force. At this point, the only metric I have is how the candidates do with AA voters in South Carolina. I'm waiting for Steve Kornacki to give me the breakdown.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I haven't decided for whom I will be voting but I've decided how I will decide. (Original Post) TomSlick Feb 2020 OP
It's a good metric since we cannot win nationally without their support. onecaliberal Feb 2020 #1
I think you're right that we cannot win without enthusiastic AA support. TomSlick Feb 2020 #3
First off, that is awesomely Meta ... secondly ... plan seems pretty sound :) (nt) mr_lebowski Feb 2020 #2
Thanks - I think. TomSlick Feb 2020 #4
Just remember, also, that SC is an "open primary" state. Jamastiene Feb 2020 #5
Sure, but that won't effect my metric. TomSlick Feb 2020 #7
This message was self-deleted by its author TomSlick Feb 2020 #6
This metric is critical Sugarcoated Feb 2020 #8
Ok, what is AA? captain queeg Feb 2020 #9
African Americans Sugarcoated Feb 2020 #10
Sorry. I thought that abbreviation was well accepted on DU. TomSlick Feb 2020 #11
Thanks captain queeg Feb 2020 #12
What if MoonlitKnight Feb 2020 #13
I don't see that as a serious problem. TomSlick Feb 2020 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author Jakes Progress Feb 2020 #15
The trouble with waiting on SC for the AA vote Jakes Progress Feb 2020 #16
Yeah, but my primary is Tuesday. TomSlick Feb 2020 #17
Mine too. Jakes Progress Feb 2020 #18
I would love to see Sanders' policies enacted but that isn't going to happen - even if he's elected. TomSlick Feb 2020 #19
A three-legged yellow dog should beat trump Jakes Progress Feb 2020 #20
Agreed on all points. TomSlick Feb 2020 #23
That had been my plan, too, until last week when I decided to just go for the best and vote Warren. LAS14 Feb 2020 #21
I would be very happy to see Sen. Warren as the nominee. TomSlick Feb 2020 #22
 

onecaliberal

(32,763 posts)
1. It's a good metric since we cannot win nationally without their support.
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:27 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
3. I think you're right that we cannot win without enthusiastic AA support.
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:35 PM
Feb 2020

However, right or wrong, I'm running out of time and that's the best metric I have found.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)
2. First off, that is awesomely Meta ... secondly ... plan seems pretty sound :) (nt)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:29 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
4. Thanks - I think.
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:40 PM
Feb 2020

I'm unclear what it meant by "Meta" and Google is of little help. (It may be a generational thing.) However, on the whole you seem to accept the soundness of my plan - so thank you.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Jamastiene

(38,187 posts)
5. Just remember, also, that SC is an "open primary" state.
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 10:03 PM
Feb 2020

Anyone, regardless of political party can vote in the Democratic primary elections there.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
7. Sure, but that won't effect my metric.
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 10:20 PM
Feb 2020

I'm not basing my decision on who wins the South Carolina primary but who does best with the South Carolina AA vote. If all of the AA South Carolina Republicans vote in the Democratic primary, it will not be a statistically significant number.

Steve Kornacki will be able to tell us how the AA vote broke before NBC calls the total vote. With that information, I'll be able to make my decision.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to TomSlick (Original post)

 

Sugarcoated

(7,716 posts)
8. This metric is critical
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 10:47 PM
Feb 2020

to winning my state. The AA vote in Philly and Pittsburgh has to be big, urban vote must be high to overcome the rural vote. I imagine this is true for MI and WI

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
11. Sorry. I thought that abbreviation was well accepted on DU.
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 12:29 AM
Feb 2020

Once again, proving what happens when we assume.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MoonlitKnight

(1,584 posts)
13. What if
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 01:28 AM
Feb 2020

All of those AA voters are voting based upon their guess of who white voters prefer?

Quit trying to game it out and just vote for the candidate you agree with, like best or feel has the most experience. Kind of like how you would hire someone for an important job.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
14. I don't see that as a serious problem.
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 02:52 PM
Feb 2020

I don't see AA voters looking for permission from white voters on for whom they can vote.

The most important issue in this election is beating Trump. I cannot ignore which candidate stands the best chance of winning. The general election will turn on AA turn-out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to TomSlick (Original post)

 

Jakes Progress

(11,122 posts)
16. The trouble with waiting on SC for the AA vote
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:00 PM
Feb 2020

is that the SC primary will take place without Obama speaking up. I think African American reticence to vote for one candidate or another will be replaced by enthusiasm once Barack weighs in. I could be wrong - I often am in these issues - and am willing to hear from someone with better bona fides about this.

I know why Obama hasn't had a say yet, but in this case, in this year, I think we would have been better served had he helped to stop the Democratic hemorrhaging that has been our primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
17. Yeah, but my primary is Tuesday.
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:11 PM
Feb 2020

Unless President Obama speaks this weekend, it will be too late - not just for me but for about a third of Democrats.

I have to gauge AA support on something. SC is all I've got.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Jakes Progress

(11,122 posts)
18. Mine too.
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:27 PM
Feb 2020

My point was that the vote from SC won't tell us that much about eventual AA support. It will be Obama's job to generate turn-out. I think there are a couple of candidates that even Obama couldn't sell, but most would get the AA vote if they have Obama's endorsement.

With me, it's a matter of do I Vote Warren, who I believe is the most qualified candidate and whose policies I agree with. Or do I switch to Biden to keep Bernie from piling up the points. I would love all of Bernie's polices to be enacted, but I firmly believe that his heading the ticket in November will result in us losing not just the presidency, but also the house.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
19. I would love to see Sanders' policies enacted but that isn't going to happen - even if he's elected.
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:36 PM
Feb 2020

I think Warren would be more effective as President and I like her "plans" too.

The point is that if Trump is re-elected the Republic dies. Nothing else matters. I would vote for a three-legged yellow dog in the primary if I thought it had the best chance to beat Trump.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Jakes Progress

(11,122 posts)
20. A three-legged yellow dog should beat trump
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:18 PM
Feb 2020

by a mile. The fact that this isn't so makes me very sad for the level of honesty, morality, honor, and intelligence of the population. Those people really bring down the averages of all of those things for America.

People keep saying how close the election was. It shouldn't have been even close to close.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
23. Agreed on all points.
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 09:03 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LAS14

(13,769 posts)
21. That had been my plan, too, until last week when I decided to just go for the best and vote Warren.
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:19 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TomSlick

(11,086 posts)
22. I would be very happy to see Sen. Warren as the nominee.
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 09:02 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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