
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:17 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
I haven't decided for whom I will be voting but I've decided how I will decide.
My rule from the beginning has been which candidate has the best chance to beat Trump. The results so far have not answered my question of which candidate fits that bill.
Since I have to vote no later than Tuesday, I've decided to wait until after the South Carolina primary this weekend. Whichever candidate does best with the AA vote in South Carolina gets my vote. If we are to beat Trump, AA Democrats must turnout in force. At this point, the only metric I have is how the candidates do with AA voters in South Carolina. I'm waiting for Steve Kornacki to give me the breakdown.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
23 replies, 1680 views
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Author | Time | Post |
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TomSlick | Feb 2020 | OP |
onecaliberal | Feb 2020 | #1 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #3 | |
mr_lebowski | Feb 2020 | #2 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #4 | |
Jamastiene | Feb 2020 | #5 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #7 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #6 | |
Sugarcoated | Feb 2020 | #8 | |
captain queeg | Feb 2020 | #9 | |
Sugarcoated | Feb 2020 | #10 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #11 | |
captain queeg | Feb 2020 | #12 | |
MoonlitKnight | Feb 2020 | #13 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #14 | |
Jakes Progress | Feb 2020 | #15 | |
Jakes Progress | Feb 2020 | #16 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #17 | |
Jakes Progress | Feb 2020 | #18 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #19 | |
Jakes Progress | Feb 2020 | #20 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #23 | |
LAS14 | Feb 2020 | #21 | |
TomSlick | Feb 2020 | #22 |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:27 PM
onecaliberal (29,269 posts)
1. It's a good metric since we cannot win nationally without their support.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to onecaliberal (Reply #1)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:35 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
3. I think you're right that we cannot win without enthusiastic AA support.
However, right or wrong, I'm running out of time and that's the best metric I have found.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:29 PM
mr_lebowski (31,009 posts)
2. First off, that is awesomely Meta ... secondly ... plan seems pretty sound :) (nt)
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to mr_lebowski (Reply #2)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 09:40 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
4. Thanks - I think.
I'm unclear what it meant by "Meta" and Google is of little help. (It may be a generational thing.) However, on the whole you seem to accept the soundness of my plan - so thank you.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 10:03 PM
Jamastiene (38,174 posts)
5. Just remember, also, that SC is an "open primary" state.
Anyone, regardless of political party can vote in the Democratic primary elections there.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to Jamastiene (Reply #5)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 10:20 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
7. Sure, but that won't effect my metric.
I'm not basing my decision on who wins the South Carolina primary but who does best with the South Carolina AA vote. If all of the AA South Carolina Republicans vote in the Democratic primary, it will not be a statistically significant number.
Steve Kornacki will be able to tell us how the AA vote broke before NBC calls the total vote. With that information, I'll be able to make my decision. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
TomSlick This message was self-deleted by its author.
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Mon Feb 24, 2020, 10:47 PM
Sugarcoated (7,483 posts)
8. This metric is critical
to winning my state. The AA vote in Philly and Pittsburgh has to be big, urban vote must be high to overcome the rural vote. I imagine this is true for MI and WI
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 12:25 AM
captain queeg (8,490 posts)
9. Ok, what is AA?
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to captain queeg (Reply #9)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 12:26 AM
Sugarcoated (7,483 posts)
10. African Americans
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to captain queeg (Reply #9)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 12:29 AM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
11. Sorry. I thought that abbreviation was well accepted on DU.
Once again, proving what happens when we assume.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Reply #11)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 12:31 AM
captain queeg (8,490 posts)
12. Thanks
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 01:28 AM
MoonlitKnight (1,584 posts)
13. What if
All of those AA voters are voting based upon their guess of who white voters prefer?
Quit trying to game it out and just vote for the candidate you agree with, like best or feel has the most experience. Kind of like how you would hire someone for an important job. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to MoonlitKnight (Reply #13)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 02:52 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
14. I don't see that as a serious problem.
I don't see AA voters looking for permission from white voters on for whom they can vote.
The most important issue in this election is beating Trump. I cannot ignore which candidate stands the best chance of winning. The general election will turn on AA turn-out. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Jakes Progress This message was self-deleted by its author.
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:00 PM
Jakes Progress (11,051 posts)
16. The trouble with waiting on SC for the AA vote
is that the SC primary will take place without Obama speaking up. I think African American reticence to vote for one candidate or another will be replaced by enthusiasm once Barack weighs in. I could be wrong - I often am in these issues - and am willing to hear from someone with better bona fides about this.
I know why Obama hasn't had a say yet, but in this case, in this year, I think we would have been better served had he helped to stop the Democratic hemorrhaging that has been our primary. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Jakes Progress (Reply #16)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:11 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
17. Yeah, but my primary is Tuesday.
Unless President Obama speaks this weekend, it will be too late - not just for me but for about a third of Democrats.
I have to gauge AA support on something. SC is all I've got. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Reply #17)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:27 PM
Jakes Progress (11,051 posts)
18. Mine too.
My point was that the vote from SC won't tell us that much about eventual AA support. It will be Obama's job to generate turn-out. I think there are a couple of candidates that even Obama couldn't sell, but most would get the AA vote if they have Obama's endorsement.
With me, it's a matter of do I Vote Warren, who I believe is the most qualified candidate and whose policies I agree with. Or do I switch to Biden to keep Bernie from piling up the points. I would love all of Bernie's polices to be enacted, but I firmly believe that his heading the ticket in November will result in us losing not just the presidency, but also the house. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Jakes Progress (Reply #18)
Tue Feb 25, 2020, 11:36 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
19. I would love to see Sanders' policies enacted but that isn't going to happen - even if he's elected.
I think Warren would be more effective as President and I like her "plans" too.
The point is that if Trump is re-elected the Republic dies. Nothing else matters. I would vote for a three-legged yellow dog in the primary if I thought it had the best chance to beat Trump. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Reply #19)
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:18 PM
Jakes Progress (11,051 posts)
20. A three-legged yellow dog should beat trump
by a mile. The fact that this isn't so makes me very sad for the level of honesty, morality, honor, and intelligence of the population. Those people really bring down the averages of all of those things for America.
People keep saying how close the election was. It shouldn't have been even close to close. ![]() primary today, I would vote for: Undecided |
Response to Jakes Progress (Reply #20)
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 09:03 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
23. Agreed on all points.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to TomSlick (Original post)
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:19 PM
LAS14 (13,055 posts)
21. That had been my plan, too, until last week when I decided to just go for the best and vote Warren.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |
Response to LAS14 (Reply #21)
Thu Feb 27, 2020, 09:02 PM
TomSlick (10,269 posts)
22. I would be very happy to see Sen. Warren as the nominee.
![]() primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden |