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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
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CBS/YouGov GE Poll: Bernie beats Trump by the widest margin (+3) (Original Post) HerbChestnut Feb 2020 OP
national polls are meaningless lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #1
True but even for state polls - no major anti-BS ad buys yet. MH1 Feb 2020 #5
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #6
They weren't meaningless here when Biden was at the top. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #11
Yep. HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #13
you never heard that from me. lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #18
re: "Show me how Bernie is beating Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida." thesquanderer Feb 2020 #20
you bring me lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #22
No, you asked to be shown something, so I showed you. He is at least competitive in all. thesquanderer Feb 2020 #25
show me polls where he leads outside the margin of error... lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #28
Show me polls where he loses outside the margin of error... thesquanderer Feb 2020 #30
nope... that wasn't the question posed. lapfog_1 Feb 2020 #31
re: "you can't show me a path to victory in November for Bernie." thesquanderer Feb 2020 #38
Has Sanders been fully vetted? n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #33
Oh look a Gish Gallop. Voltaire2 Feb 2020 #41
I had to look that one up. Thanks for expanding my vocabulary. May I get an answer now? nt zackymilly Feb 2020 #42
Unless they show a different candidate on top. And then they're all the rage. Garrett78 Feb 2020 #29
Yes swing state polls are what counts. However, part of this contest is about preceptions, and if totodeinhere Feb 2020 #32
Don't worry, he's leading trump in many swing states, and better then other candidates in those. jmg257 Feb 2020 #47
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #2
None of those numbers are good. Turin_C3PO Feb 2020 #3
Once it's clear Bernie will be the nominee, he'll have a better platform to get his... HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #15
IMO that number is very good. Neon Gods Feb 2020 #16
I sure hope Joe's numbers step up. I dread a Bernie nomination. n/t zackymilly Feb 2020 #34
Only the electoral college matters... JenniferJuniper Feb 2020 #4
It's so damn depressing that we live in a country where the margins can be this close! nt LAS14 Feb 2020 #7
That is a national poll and he is doing badly...they all are but Biden has already withstood the GOP Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #8
+ 1 musette_sf Feb 2020 #40
Thank you Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #49
3% is not enough to guarantee a win-- Hillary was leading by at least that much throughout 2016 andym Feb 2020 #9
What is the Margin of Error? JaneQPublic Feb 2020 #10
Isn't that a college based poll? wisteria Feb 2020 #12
don't know, but what does it matter? (n/t) thesquanderer Feb 2020 #19
No. LenaW Feb 2020 #27
That's one. Oh and welcome to DU. nt zackymilly Feb 2020 #36
Their methodology is available. LenaW Feb 2020 #39
The pundits are scared of the word "socialism" Neon Gods Feb 2020 #14
After the GOP drops $2 billion on Bernie's head it will be more than the pundits who are terrified. HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #44
How many Republicans are they polling? Polls and primaries can be ratfucked... CousinIT Feb 2020 #17
The only difference is the number of undecideds. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #21
+3? TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #23
Well, Bloomberg is at (-3) so... HerbChestnut Feb 2020 #24
Trump should be down by at least ten TheCowsCameHome Feb 2020 #26
Look for Bernie's numbers to get even better as more and more people jump on the bandwagon totodeinhere Feb 2020 #35
With that margin, he would probably lose the electoral college. RDANGELO Feb 2020 #37
I don't like the look of any of these polls democrattotheend Feb 2020 #43
Not very impressive for any of them. HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #45
We're so screwed! tandem5 Feb 2020 #46
I wouldn't put much to it. rockfordfile Feb 2020 #48
 

lapfog_1

(29,194 posts)
1. national polls are meaningless
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:45 PM
Feb 2020

if they meant anything, it would be President Hillary right now.

Swing state polls mean something. Show me how Bernie is beating Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MH1

(17,573 posts)
5. True but even for state polls - no major anti-BS ad buys yet.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:47 PM
Feb 2020

The GOP is holding its fire. Once the Dem party is committed to BS - if that happens - once it is definitely too late - then the real attacks against him will start.

BS may still beat the orange buffoon but I expect those percentages to narrow considerably.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to lapfog_1 (Reply #1)

 

Voltaire2

(12,965 posts)
11. They weren't meaningless here when Biden was at the top.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:57 PM
Feb 2020

They were used to support the bullshit claim that he was the only electable candidate. Now these national polls don't matter because they don't support that argument.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

lapfog_1

(29,194 posts)
18. you never heard that from me.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:12 PM
Feb 2020

the early national polling showed MANY democrats soundly beating Trump...

Now, nobody is.

That should scare the crap out of us.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

lapfog_1

(29,194 posts)
22. you bring me
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:24 PM
Feb 2020

Sanders 48.3 to Trump 48 and try to tell me that Sanders is going to beat Trump...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,972 posts)
25. No, you asked to be shown something, so I showed you. He is at least competitive in all.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:31 PM
Feb 2020

I thought you were asking a question you actually wanted an answer for. I didn't realize it was just snark. My mistake.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

lapfog_1

(29,194 posts)
28. show me polls where he leads outside the margin of error...
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:32 PM
Feb 2020

and ones with much more recent data than RCP.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,972 posts)
30. Show me polls where he loses outside the margin of error...
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:34 PM
Feb 2020

and ones with much more recent data than RCP.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

lapfog_1

(29,194 posts)
31. nope... that wasn't the question posed.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:43 PM
Feb 2020

and doesn't prove anything.

When we started this thing, Biden was clearly the winner (outside the margin of error) in many swing states (forget the national polls, they are meaningless).

But we have torn down Biden, Biden now has many competitors in the "center left" lane, one of whom can spend over a Billion dollars on his campaign without even thinking twice about it, and now we have Bernie leading in a "plurality race" where Bernie ( running more or less alone in the far left socialist lane) is getting more of the base than any other candidate.

But you can't show me a path to victory in November for Bernie.

And in a close race, I submit the repukes will cheat to win... and I think they do every damn time and have since the 1970s... and that means Bernie loses. Only when we put the election outside the margin of error from the swing state polls do we have a chance to win.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,972 posts)
38. re: "you can't show me a path to victory in November for Bernie."
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 02:16 PM
Feb 2020

The path to victory in November for Bernie is to win important battleground states... and polls show that he is second only to Biden in being able to do that (though we haven't seen many Bloomberg polls yet). So I don't know how you can say that that evidence is insufficient while supporting Klobuchar, who polls worse! Based on polling, if Bernie can't win those states, Amy DEFINITELY can't win those states. (Personally, I think either has the potential to win.)

re: " nope... that wasn't the question posed."

You asked for polls where Sanders showed well against Trump in battleground states, so I did. You asked me to show you more polls to prove something more (that was the question posed), so I tossed it back to you to show me otherwise. Because I suspect neither of us can do either.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

zackymilly

(2,375 posts)
33. Has Sanders been fully vetted? n/t
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:47 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Voltaire2

(12,965 posts)
41. Oh look a Gish Gallop.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 04:16 PM
Feb 2020

Well done!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

zackymilly

(2,375 posts)
42. I had to look that one up. Thanks for expanding my vocabulary. May I get an answer now? nt
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 04:52 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
29. Unless they show a different candidate on top. And then they're all the rage.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:33 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

totodeinhere

(13,057 posts)
32. Yes swing state polls are what counts. However, part of this contest is about preceptions, and if
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:45 PM
Feb 2020

Bernie is seen doing well in national polls that can only help with his momentum.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

jmg257

(11,996 posts)
47. Don't worry, he's leading trump in many swing states, and better then other candidates in those.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 05:01 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to HerbChestnut (Original post)

 

Turin_C3PO

(13,912 posts)
3. None of those numbers are good.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:46 PM
Feb 2020

We need to be ahead of Trump by a lot more to overcome cheating and suppression.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
15. Once it's clear Bernie will be the nominee, he'll have a better platform to get his...
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:04 PM
Feb 2020

...message out to GE voters. Once that happens, I suspect his numbers will improve across the board.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Neon Gods

(222 posts)
16. IMO that number is very good.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:11 PM
Feb 2020

Anyone that polls better than the incumbent at this point has to be ecstatic (and not just Bernie). Trump has a big advantage now because his eventual opponents are fighting each other while he gets to fly around the country bashing us.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

zackymilly

(2,375 posts)
34. I sure hope Joe's numbers step up. I dread a Bernie nomination. n/t
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:48 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JenniferJuniper

(4,507 posts)
4. Only the electoral college matters...
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:47 PM
Feb 2020

If he was able to beat mainstream Hillary in the electoral college, he will slaughter Bernie.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LAS14

(13,769 posts)
7. It's so damn depressing that we live in a country where the margins can be this close! nt
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:47 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Demsrule86

(68,476 posts)
8. That is a national poll and he is doing badly...they all are but Biden has already withstood the GOP
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:49 PM
Feb 2020

fire Sanders has not. We lose big with Sanders.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

andym

(5,443 posts)
9. 3% is not enough to guarantee a win-- Hillary was leading by at least that much throughout 2016
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:53 PM
Feb 2020


She won the popular vote by >2% in the end.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JaneQPublic

(7,113 posts)
10. What is the Margin of Error?
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 12:54 PM
Feb 2020

Most polls have an MOE of at least 3 percent.

Plus, political analysts say this year, the Dem nominee can beat Trump by as much as 5,000 popular votes and still lose, thanks to population gains in CA, etc. and the Electoral College.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

wisteria

(19,581 posts)
12. Isn't that a college based poll?
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:00 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

thesquanderer

(11,972 posts)
19. don't know, but what does it matter? (n/t)
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:13 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LenaW

(51 posts)
27. No.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:31 PM
Feb 2020

I participate in yougov polls and am most definitely no longer in college.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

zackymilly

(2,375 posts)
36. That's one. Oh and welcome to DU. nt
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:49 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LenaW

(51 posts)
39. Their methodology is available.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 02:18 PM
Feb 2020

I did the 5 second search and found it for a recent poll from them, not interested in investing more time since I already know, having first hand experience with this polling group. Here's what I found:

"These CBS News surveys were conducted by YouGov between December 27, 2019 and January 3, 2020. A representative sample of 2,000 registered voters in Iowa was selected, including 953 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. A representative sample of 1,100 registered voters in New Hampshire was selected, including 519 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. The samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based upon voter registration lists and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2016 presidential vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters within Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively."

Nothing about it being college-based. But I'd encourage you to look for the methodology for this specific poll if you are interested. Never a bad thing to do your own research.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Neon Gods

(222 posts)
14. The pundits are scared of the word "socialism"
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:03 PM
Feb 2020

All these pundits freaking out that Sanders is toxic and if he's our candidate Trump will eat his lunch don't understand Bernie.

Bernie is a rarity in politics: he's authentic. His message has been essentially the same for 20+ years. It's a message the Democratic party establishment disliked and ignored, and finally in 2016 Bernie got his message out to the people and it resonated. I believe Bernie would eat Trump's lunch - and send him the bill. (My concern with Bernie is age and his refusal to release his medical record).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

HarlanPepper

(2,042 posts)
44. After the GOP drops $2 billion on Bernie's head it will be more than the pundits who are terrified.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 04:55 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

CousinIT

(9,225 posts)
17. How many Republicans are they polling? Polls and primaries can be ratfucked...
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:11 PM
Feb 2020

...and they are being ratfucked.

TrumPutin want Bernie to win for a reason and they are doing all they can to ensure that happens.

Here's the biggest prize TrumPutin get out of this crap: NOBODY. TRUSTS. THE. PROCESS. ANYMORE. And that is to their extreme advantage. Here's one reason that's a huge advantage: https://www.alternet.org/2020/02/trump-has-already-joked-about-defying-2020-election-results-heres-what-could-happen-if-he-refuses-to-concede/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TwilightZone

(25,429 posts)
21. The only difference is the number of undecideds.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:20 PM
Feb 2020

It appears that they're all within the MOE. Trump's numbers are almost exactly the same in all six and it's statistically a six-way tie. The only difference is the number of undecideds.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TheCowsCameHome

(40,167 posts)
23. +3?
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:28 PM
Feb 2020

Man, if that's true (against that fetid piece of garbage) we really are screwed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

HerbChestnut

(3,649 posts)
24. Well, Bloomberg is at (-3) so...
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:28 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TheCowsCameHome

(40,167 posts)
26. Trump should be down by at least ten
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:31 PM
Feb 2020

against our worst candidate.

This is really scary. All this is within the MOE.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

totodeinhere

(13,057 posts)
35. Look for Bernie's numbers to get even better as more and more people jump on the bandwagon
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 01:48 PM
Feb 2020

as it becomes clear that his momentum is unstoppable. But in the end it will come down to a few swing states and it's going to be close. That's why if Bernie is going to be the nominee we all need to get behind him and work our asses off for him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

RDANGELO

(3,432 posts)
37. With that margin, he would probably lose the electoral college.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 02:08 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
43. I don't like the look of any of these polls
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 04:53 PM
Feb 2020

These are narrower margins for all of them than in the past. And I would feel a lot better if our candidates were above 50.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

HarlanPepper

(2,042 posts)
45. Not very impressive for any of them.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 04:56 PM
Feb 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

rockfordfile

(8,699 posts)
48. I wouldn't put much to it.
Sun Feb 23, 2020, 06:33 PM
Feb 2020

CBS News has tilted right-wing.

No doubt our candidates are beating trump

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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