Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWhat's this "insurmountable lead" business???
I see DU posts and pundit columns lamenting that Bernie will have "an insurmountable lead" or words to that effect, if some moderates don't drop out. How insurmountable? So we get to a 2nd vote at the convention (no one is predicting he'll garner a majority before then). Individual candidates can't "make a deal" with him and give him their delegates. Delegates make their own decisions. If over 50% of the delegates definitely don't want Bernie, he's not getting the nomination. Right?
He's CERTAINLY not going to get the super delegates.
Where am I wrong about this?
tia
las
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jmg257
(11,996 posts)What they're saying: Kevin Sheekey, Bloomberg's top strategist, said:
● As the race stands today, Sanders is poised to leave Super Tuesday with an over-400
delegate lead versus his next closest competitor (MRB) - a likely insurmountable advantage
"I dont think many people understand the dire circumstances here."
Why it matters: Based on every national poll, plus steady access to money, Sanders is the indisputable if underappreciated frontrunner.
The Bloomberg campaign got high-profile validation of its theory:
David Plouffe, Barack Obama's 2008 campaign manager, tweeted in response to Nate Silver's delegate projections through Super Tuesday which show Sanders with 41%, followed by Bloomberg and Joe Biden with 18% each.
"If this happens, Sanders would have a pledged delegate lead hell never relinquish."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LAS14
(13,792 posts)I'm responding to this bit of oyour post.
David Plouffe, Barack Obama's 2008 campaign manager, tweeted in response to Nate Silver's delegate projections through Super Tuesday which show Sanders with 41%, followed by Bloomberg and Joe Biden with 18% each.
"If this happens, Sanders would have a pledged delegate lead hell never relinquish."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jmg257
(11,996 posts)appreciably collecting delegates on Super Tuesday (and beyond), they will propel
Sanders to a seemingly insurmountable delegate lead by siphoning votes away from
MRB
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Watchfoxheadexplodes
(3,496 posts)The eggs hatch or not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jimfields33
(16,185 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jimfields33
(16,185 posts)Hes winning the grand prizes of California and Texas. After that the final third of the country will just genuinely go to him (hell lose only Florida in the remaining states). They claim this has been a natural occurrence in every primary election.
Time will tell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LAS14
(13,792 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jimfields33
(16,185 posts)But good number of delegates per state adds up pretty good.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
jmg257
(11,996 posts)Edit: sorry - this is Cali
Sanders outpaces his presidential rivals in claiming about a quarter of likely Democratic primary voters, 24 percent, according to a new Monmouth University Poll. Sanders is followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 17 percent, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg at 13 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 10 percent and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9 percent.
While both polls show Sanders with a plurality and well short of an outright majority, Californias proportional allocation system make the exact delegate count difficult to predict. Candidates can scoop up delegates if they break 15 percent in any congressional district; a separate statewide basket is distributed proportionally to every candidate who breaks 15 percent statewide.
If the vote is fractured such that only one or two candidates secure 15 percent of the entire California electorate, they would be the only ones to claim statewide delegates a scenario thats looking increasingly likely given the still-muddled field.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/02/20/poll-sanders-leads-democratic-race-in-california-1262513
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FBaggins
(26,800 posts)At least one California poll was quite close to Sanders getting almost everything.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
unc70
(6,130 posts)Theoretically, Bernie could get 35% of vote and win 100% of delegates if no other candidate received 15%. With many candidates, the odds for such things happening in individual states goes up. You even have several candidates who have dropped out still polling around 5%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to LAS14 (Original post)
Post removed
LAS14
(13,792 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tiredtoo
(2,949 posts)No way to prove/disprove your statement. As for McGovern and Goldwater, that was 1972 it is now 2020. The times they are a changing.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emulatorloo
(44,276 posts)Sanders lost by over 4 million votes.
Please correct your disinformation
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LiberalFighter
(51,403 posts)Hillary had a majority with 2,205 of the pledged delegates out of 4,051 without the automatic delegates. Bernie had 1,846.
Bernie would had needed 536 out of 712 of the automatic delegates to get the majority. He only got 43.5 of them. And only 612 of the 712 were cast.
Out of 4,707 votes cast Hillary received 2,842 delegate votes well over the 2,382 needed. She was only 177 votes shy of the combined delegate majority while without the automatic delegates included.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emulatorloo
(44,276 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,552 posts)thrilled with his message of unity
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
FBaggins
(26,800 posts)Theres roughly a 1/3 chance that he will indeed get a majority before the convention. The chances go up sharply if none of the center-left lane candidates get out. Conversely... if Warren gets out his chances climb significantly.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
I like Warren.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)It's that there's currently about a 1 in 3 chance that he will, according to 538.
With every new bit of data, the odds change. After Super Tuesday or even after South Carolina, those odds could change pretty drastically.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Obviously the press has a bone in its teeth and is salivating at a Bernie-dotard collision.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
madville
(7,413 posts)and a large chunk in TX, that's all he needs to have a great day.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Im just hoping for no clusterfuck tonight!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)If, and I know this is just an "if," Bernie wins Nevada and South Carolina and goes on to win a clear plurality of votes on Super Tuesday and beyond, then I think there might be quite a bit of pressure on the super delegates to fall into line behind Bernie. If Bernie falls just short of a majority and leads his next closet competitor by a large margin then I think it would be hard to deny him the nomination.
And if under that scenario he were denied the nomination I think it would be very divisive and not healthy for Democratic unity going into November.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
madville
(7,413 posts)hard to predict what the pledged delegates would do in a second round as well once they are released. Warren may have a small amount that could align with Sanders. It may have to go through multiple rounds depending how large his lead may be.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
gulliver
(13,205 posts)Sanders has the pledged delegate lead until the center/left candidates pool their delegates and choose one from among their group. Then that candidate not only has an insurmountable lead but the nomination. The super delegates may not even need to play a role. It may be better if they don't, as Sanders would probably throw a tantrum if/when they would give the nomination to someone else. That's despite the fact that Sanders agreed to the rules going in.
I've also seen "commanding lead" and "double-digit lead"...same comment applies.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden