538: Bernie projected to win Iowa (still a virtual tie)

[Tiggeroshii]

Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 13 pledged delegates out of a possible 41. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 1 and 22 delegates. He has a 2 in 5 (37%) chance of winning the most delegates, essentially tied with the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 3 (36%) chance.

Projected delegates: Bernie: 12.9, Biden: 12.6

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

This puts Bernie as the projected winner in NH, IA and NV. GO BERNIE!!!

[LanternWaste]

1. Demographics of two of those states are Bernie's to collect and pass Go.

Should he fail to get a commanding 1st place in at least two of the three states you mentioned, my guess is that things will go south for his campaign very quickly and in an ugly way.

[Tiggeroshii]

2. 538 projection: Biden's lead cut in half since last week.

He dropped from a 354 delegate lead yesterday to 259 delegate lead today.

It isn't just Iowa where Sanders is gaining rapidly.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[TexasTowelie]

6. 538 is also predicting that Buttigieg will get over 400 delegates.

Even if Buttigieg is successful in Iowa and New Hampshire, how does he get to 400 delegates?

538 also is predicting that Warren will get over 400 delegates, and while I believe she has an easier pathway to achieve that goal it looks like she is not a viable in a number of states.

With those two projections, it is why I don't place a lot of faith in the predictions made at 538.

[calguy]

3. Republicans and Russians working hard on social media

to push Bernie's numbers. They are so far largely unsuccessful in reducing Biden's favorability, so now they're attempting to boost his opponent. Joe Biden is the one they are most fearful of in th general election, while Bernie Sanders is their dream opponent.

[Sloumeau]

4. If Bernie fails to do well in Iowa and NH, he is toast.

Bernie still has a steep climb ahead.

1. Biden might sweep the South as Hillary did.

2. There are 11 closed primaries. Since a lot of Bernie's support seems to come from non-Democrats, he tends to do worse in closed primaries. In 2016, Sanders lost every closed primary.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. A lot of things have changed since 2016

But his chances have substantially improved.