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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
Tue Jan 28, 2020, 04:24 PM Jan 2020

538: Bernie projected to win Iowa (still a virtual tie)

Sanders is forecasted to win an average of 13 pledged delegates out of a possible 41. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 1 and 22 delegates. He has a 2 in 5 (37%) chance of winning the most delegates, essentially tied with the second most likely winner, Biden, who has a 1 in 3 (36%) chance.


Projected delegates: Bernie: 12.9, Biden: 12.6

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/iowa/

This puts Bernie as the projected winner in NH, IA and NV. GO BERNIE!!!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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538: Bernie projected to win Iowa (still a virtual tie) (Original Post) Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 OP
Demographics of two of those states are Bernie's to collect and pass Go. LanternWaste Jan 2020 #1
538 projection: Biden's lead cut in half since last week. Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #2
538 is also predicting that Buttigieg will get over 400 delegates. TexasTowelie Jan 2020 #6
Republicans and Russians working hard on social media calguy Jan 2020 #3
If Bernie fails to do well in Iowa and NH, he is toast. Sloumeau Jan 2020 #4
A lot of things have changed since 2016 Tiggeroshii Jan 2020 #5
 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
1. Demographics of two of those states are Bernie's to collect and pass Go.
Tue Jan 28, 2020, 04:28 PM
Jan 2020

Should he fail to get a commanding 1st place in at least two of the three states you mentioned, my guess is that things will go south for his campaign very quickly and in an ugly way.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
2. 538 projection: Biden's lead cut in half since last week.
Tue Jan 28, 2020, 04:31 PM
Jan 2020

He dropped from a 354 delegate lead yesterday to 259 delegate lead today.

It isn't just Iowa where Sanders is gaining rapidly.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

TexasTowelie

(113,624 posts)
6. 538 is also predicting that Buttigieg will get over 400 delegates.
Tue Jan 28, 2020, 04:49 PM
Jan 2020

Even if Buttigieg is successful in Iowa and New Hampshire, how does he get to 400 delegates?

538 also is predicting that Warren will get over 400 delegates, and while I believe she has an easier pathway to achieve that goal it looks like she is not a viable in a number of states.

With those two projections, it is why I don't place a lot of faith in the predictions made at 538.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

calguy

(5,398 posts)
3. Republicans and Russians working hard on social media
Tue Jan 28, 2020, 04:34 PM
Jan 2020

to push Bernie's numbers. They are so far largely unsuccessful in reducing Biden's favorability, so now they're attempting to boost his opponent. Joe Biden is the one they are most fearful of in th general election, while Bernie Sanders is their dream opponent.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
4. If Bernie fails to do well in Iowa and NH, he is toast.
Tue Jan 28, 2020, 04:38 PM
Jan 2020

Bernie still has a steep climb ahead.

1. Biden might sweep the South as Hillary did.

2. There are 11 closed primaries. Since a lot of Bernie's support seems to come from non-Democrats, he tends to do worse in closed primaries. In 2016, Sanders lost every closed primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
5. A lot of things have changed since 2016
Tue Jan 28, 2020, 04:41 PM
Jan 2020

But his chances have substantially improved.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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