Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIf the CBS/YouGov poll is accurate (and there's nothing saying they aren't), here is how...
...Iowa and New Hampshire shake out, give or take a delegate or two:
Iowa, 41 Delegates:
Biden (23%), 11 Delegates
Warren (16%), 8 Delegates
Sanders (23%), 11 Delegates
Buttigieg (23%), 11 Delegates
New Hampshire:
Biden (25%), 9 Delegates
Warren (18%), 6 Delegates
Sanders (27%), 9 Delegates
Buttigieg (13%), 0 Delegates
Total - Biden 20, Warren 14, Sanders 20, Buttigieg 11
After two almost all-white states have voted, no clear leader and still more than 3,900 delegates to be determined.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,869 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
No one will be mathematically eliminated after March 3rd, that's way too early. This primary will be closer than 2016, and no one was eliminated Super Tuesday then either.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Biden would have whipped all of the soundly in South Carlolina a few days earlier. If he comes out of Super Tuesday with a significant lead, he then rolls into the big list of southern primaries where he is expected to beat the pants off of everyone else. Biden could come out is of the South with an insurmountable lead and walk to the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Demsrule86 (Reply #1)
LongtimeAZDem This message was self-deleted by its author.
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Joe941
(2,848 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,869 posts)and on the second ballot supers vote for the individual who has the most delegates...not a team sport so if you desire to combine Sanders and Warren delegates...better get one of them to drop out...it is the only way. I think that there will be a clear winner anyway...and it won't be Bernie or Warren...Biden is going to be the nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,869 posts)if 36% is the highest number of delegates among INDIVIDUAL donors, supers will put this candidate over the top...did you know that supers put Pres. Obama over the top? It was a very close election.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
evertonfc
(1,713 posts)dominate in the south
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)...get more than 2/3 of the delegates in North Carolina. He will also get all the delegates in Virginia, Georgia, Florida and Texas.
There have been no meaningful polls in any of the other southern states. We're going to have an early nominee this year.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RandySF
(59,904 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,825 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Recursion
(56,582 posts)The rule changes were, IMO, a horrible idea, and we're going to see why
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)"Rigged" is the new definition of "not enough people were into me".
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
gristy
(10,667 posts)This would seem to be a good thing. Certainly I like them all!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)out that way just to pain and expose all the corrupt "analysts" lying to elect Republicans.
Big no to making it easy for them to hide what they are.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
KPN
(15,684 posts)Im feeling really good.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
judeling
(1,086 posts)More treading water.
You have to squint to see any real movement except maybe so slight Pete decline and a bit of Amy advance. But the race is to unsettled to see a clear trend anywhere.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
KPN
(15,684 posts)slowly but surely.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,869 posts)tied...and New Hampshire should be a blow out for Sander and Warren and it is not. I would not be surprised if Biden didn't win Iowa...but no matter what he gets delegate and then we move onto Nevada, North Carolina,Super Tuesday...and the south, the Midwest, California...Biden get delegates there too...and with the pitiful amount of AA support for both Sanders and Warren...they will not win once you hit states with diversity.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(146,032 posts)If Biden does as projected in these states, he will clean up in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states
Link to tweet
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....to more diverse states that more accurately reflect the demographics of the United States and there will be no "clear leader" at that point.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Recursion
(56,582 posts)had to rack up an early victory in either NH or IA and then consolidate the rest of the field. Hell, the Biden campaign had essentially conceded Iowa two months ago. I don't see much of an avenue for the rest of the candidates if Biden wins these two.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)breakout from second tier that's always eluded them. They all have to make it or it's basically over.
Sanders, however, does have the money and will to show up in another 48 states and pretend he's in the running, raking in more donations for months just like last time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(146,032 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....getting less than 15% in almost every case. This is in addition to winning both Florida and Texas.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
radius777
(3,635 posts)because he can also hold his own in the white states that Bernie won big in last time.
Some Sanders people think if Warren fades (and possibly drops out) all of her voters are going over to him - nonsense - as many of them are Hillary and Kamala voters who despise Sanders.
And when/if Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, Steyer drop out - I think most of those votes goto Biden.
Basically Biden can't lose the nomination (just like Hillary couldn't lose it) because of his dominance in the South and amongst PoC voters (who also play a large role in the large delegate rich states outside of the South) overall, as well as with establishment and moderate Dem voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(146,032 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)Some aren't very good at it or choose to be not good at it so they can whine.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indykatie
(3,698 posts)I couldn't bear a month of the Media proclaiming a front runner for the Dem nomination based on the outcome of 2 states that look nothing like the Dem party.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Vogon_Glory
(9,138 posts)I suppose that a Club Pachyderm primary season could show who is surging ahead.
But were Democrats. Were a long way from telling who will gather the most delegates.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(95,070 posts)Future intent is not automatically reflective of actual caucus voting. Warren and Buttigieg have the strongest ground teams to round up their supporters and keep them at the Caucus site through two rounds of voting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)The only thing we know about any campaign's "ground game" is what the campaigns themselves tell us. We were told that Sanders' campaign had 25,000 people "on the ground" in Iowa. That's obviously not true.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)...because no other candidate will clear 15%.
And at that point, he'll have a sizeable lead going into Super Tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided