HMMMMMMMMMMM

[DemocratSinceBirth]

[jodymarie aimee]

1. I still don't get why we think Trump is even gonna be an option in 2020

he will be gone...just say Republican...

[scheming daemons]

2. This midterm victory was because of center-left wins primarily, not far-left.

37 of the 40 seats gained were won by establishment candidates, not AOC/Bernie clones.


If we nominate Bernie or Warren... we will lose to Trump.

[jodymarie aimee]

4. please provide

your source for this...I find it extremely hard to believe. You really have not noticed the gigantic appeal of AOC...

[scheming daemons]

7. AOC wasn't a seat flip.

The overwhelming number of seat flips went to candidates like Conor Lamb.... *NOT* candidates like AOC.

She won an already-Democratic seat.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Dems lost the burbs in 014 by twelve points. They were tied in the burbs in 018

That is how we won the mid terms. There is one candidate who threatens those gains in 2020 and consequently our chances of victory.

[scheming daemons]

10. There's two. The one you are thinking of.... plus Tulsi Gabbard.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. She has no chance.

[jodymarie aimee]

9. you still have failed to provide a source

other than yourself...sorry, not buying it.

[Tetrachloride]

3. Arizona needs 100,000 D voters

to overcome the loss in the 2016 Presidential election. [link:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Arizona]Arizona Wiki election 2016[link]

Perhaps some Californians can move there for a couple months.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Arizona needs fewer conservatives

Interesting state. Evolving state. The early polling often has trouble capturing true mood in an evolving state, because the template is out of date. That's why I wouldn't put full stock in a poll like this.

It is true that Arizona has more Republicans than Democrats (32-28 in 2016), which is opposite of most swing states. But there are high number of liberals -- 27% in the 2016 Arizona exit poll. Once I saw that 27% a day or two after the 2016 election I was amazed and encouraged. In the 26 years I have been following this, Arizona 2016 was the first state to ever report more conservatives than the national average and also more liberals than the national average. There are a high number of registered independents in Arizona but they aren't shy about listing an ideology, when asked, at least compared to the trend elsewhere.

The 40% conservatives still makes Arizona an unlikely state in a 50/50 environment. It would need to drop to 37% or thereabouts before we could be expected to pick off Arizona in a dead even race. It is similar to Virginia maybe a dozen years ago in that regard, and more recently Nevada. In those states I didn't fret the bottom line as much as how many people were calling themselves conservative.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. The most remarkable thing about that poll to me is how poorly one candidate is doing.

That poll and the results of this poll:


https://gallery.mailchimp.com/259a50ef0a1608ab2bc2cf891/files/5d7077ad-cc75-4b73-a403-1eb607dc7a1b/Election2020_2.19_XTabs.pdf?utm_source=Contacts&utm_campaign=4c13b6213d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_09_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_7a6c958a22-4c13b6213d-429150105&mc_cid=4c13b6213d&mc_eid=30a8aa38d9


are chilling.