Buttigieg closes on Biden, Warren in Iowa: poll

[babylonsister]

Last edited Mon Oct 21, 2019, 08:59 AM - Edit history (1)

Buttigieg closes on Biden, Warren in Iowa: poll
By Rebecca Klar - 10/21/19 07:32 AM EDT


Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg now stands at third place in Iowa, according to a new poll, closely trailing former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) in the early caucus state.

Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Ind., has the support of 13 percent of 500 likely Democratic caucus goers, based on a Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Monday.

That places him just behind Biden and Warren, who are in dead-heat for first place at 18 and 17 percent, respectively.



The poll also found that Buttigieg holds a narrow lead over Warren and Biden among debate-watchers, with 19 percent support compared to 17 percent for each of them, according to the poll.

The new poll shows a big jump for Buttigieg, who was polling at just 6 percent among likely caucus goers in a June poll. Warren also shot up 4 points from 13 percent since June.

more...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466670-buttigieg-closes-on-biden-warren-in-iowa-poll

[redqueen]

1. If anyone finds a link to the poll results pleased share.

Looked for iif but didn't find one.

[babylonsister]

3. The poll is in this link

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/10/21/iowa-caucuses-pete-buttigieg-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-top-poll/4025797002/

[crazytown]

7. No lift for Klobuchar

[Funtatlaguy]

10. Yep, Minnesota neighbor meme not paying off.

[redqueen]

25. I'm looking for the full details, not the summary. nt

[patricia92243]

2. If he wins third place in Iowa, he will be considered a serious candidate and the

money, attention, and criticism will flow in.

I think he will make a great president, and it will be fun watching the Trumpters head explode about having a first gentleman.

[FreeState]

39. He's already getting the money

His strategy so far has been paying off, he is running a very fine campaign - hopefully indicative of how he will run the country when he becomes President Pete!

[cwydro]

4. But...but...I read it right here on DU that he's "too short."

How can he possibly be gaining in the polls?

[AllyCat]

17. ????

[cwydro]

21. Someone said he couldn't win because he was too short.

Saying (incorrectly) that only tall people win.

[AllyCat]

24. Grrrr....really? That's what we have against our great candidates

(Mostly great). Not sorry I missed that one. Bizarre things people post, eh?

[Piiolo]

5. Horrible poll for Sanders

In fourth place.

[gopiscrap]

41. welcome to DU

[crazytown]

6. Pete is putting in a lot of work on the ground in Iowa

[customerserviceguy]

32. The money he's raised

is being put to good use. I've not seen anything for him in South Carolina, perhaps he's bypassed this state, and I have to agree with the wisdom of that decision.

[crazytown]

37. Here's another graphic: 2 in SC

[customerserviceguy]

38. Pete will get some votes

in Charleston and Columbia, but the rest of the Democratic vote in rural SC is mostly made up mainly of evangelicals who attend churches that are still somewhat homophobic. It makes no sense to spend money here that could be devoted to friendlier Super Tuesday states outside the South.

[still_one]

8. I have very little faith in the caucus

[FBaggins]

9. Further increasing the risk of a brokered convention

Iowa could easily end up splitting its delegates four ways. If Buttigieg actually outdraws one or more of the current top three, NH/NV/SC could easily go from the current 3-way split (with no one candidate earning significantly more delegates than the others) to 4-way.

Which could make the March 3rd primaries messy. No reason to think that TX and CA will rank candidates the same way. We could easily get to mid-March with no clear frontrunner and nobody with a path to a majority.

[mopinko]

12. meh. delegates can be released.

[FBaggins]

13. And which candidate do you see doing that?

More importantly... isn't that what a brokered convention is?

[mopinko]

15. no idea really, but i would suspect that biden, if he came in second or worse,

would hand his to the front runner. done.
sanders could do the same, but yeah...

[FBaggins]

26. Right now I think it's more complicated than that

What about the second-place candidate who knows that he/she has many more superdelegates that will suddenly count on the second ballot? Do they think of themselves as the frontrunner?

What if Biden has 45% of the delegates to Warren's 40%. Does Sanders hand his to the frontrunner or to the candidate who is closer to him on the issues? Even more complicating... do released Sanders delegates vote as he wants them to or do they use their own judgment?

[Ligyron]

11. That was because he finally got some exposure.

Most Dems and almost none of the general population even knew who he was until the debates. The fact that he was in the military would be a big plus with most citizens and make it hard for the RW to paint him as a wimp and he can hold his own in any debate. I'd be happy with any of our fantastic candidates except Tulsi G. even a mod like Joe. Get a Dem Congress in there to work with and I think Joe would start heading left big time.

[Celerity]

14. great poll for Pete, let's hope he continues his rise, glad to see Biden still doing well too

[AllyCat]

16. I support Pete, but am happy we have so many candidates I can easily

Support in the GE. What a great group of people!

[crazytown]

18. A strong second finish in IA does not tip the contest (necessarily)

Think Johnny Edwards. The headline was Kerry / Dean third.

[Piiolo]

19. He will do good where black voters are few

Iowa for example.

[Celerity]

20. more numbers on the debate, big winners, Buttigieg and Klobuchar, big loser, Biden

Beto was the only other 'worse than expected' performer in double digits, percentage-wise, besides Biden.




I would like to see more polls on the debate to see how this one holds up

[George II]

22. Still a way to go and lots of "undecided" but at this rate only Biden and Warren will get delegates.

[FBaggins]

30. I disagree

I think at this rate, four of them will get delegates... because the other two are so close to the viability threshold and there are so many undecideds - combined with the fact that the viability is at the precinct level. I think it's unlikely that Sanders/Buttidieg will be below 15% in all of them.

[George II]

33. There may be a few delegates awarded based on District results, but not many at all, if any.

[FBaggins]

35. But this poll shows Biden/Warren with barely over 15% themselves

I don't see any reason to believe that they would get most of the undecideds - in fact, it usually works the other way around.

[George II]

36. Correct, that's why I said that it's early, lots of "undecideds", and "at this rate"...

We know that will change, but as of today only Biden and Warren will qualify for delegates.

[TidalWave46]

23. Go Buttigieg! NT

[efhmc]

27. I predict that Biden will win this primary. Wrote it down so I can correct myself

later if wrong or say "I told you so."

[MineralMan]

28. The Undecideds overwhelm all of the individual results.

That sort of makes the rest irrelevant. It's too early to start guessing how Iowa will look following its caucuses. And, don't forget the 15% rule. That will definitely come into play in Iowa.

[Joe941]

29. Are you saying national polls arent how we elect our candidate?

National polls seem to be all anyone talks about.

[George II]

34. Not really. I see people talking about individual state results all the time. I know I have...

I posted something about this over the weekend - details of all the early states (through Super Tuesday) where credible polls are available.

Based on poll results from these states - ME, NH, VT, MA, VA, NC, SC,OK, TX,IA, CO, NV, and CA, the delegates earned will be:

Biden - 617
Warren - 370
Sanders - 281

This does not account for a few delegates where delegates are earned, but this is a good "ballpark" estimate.

Early states that don't have credible polls yet and are not included here are AL, TN, AR, MN, and UT.

[LanternWaste]

43. No surprise that you're the only making that argument

and handing it off to "many people say..." to better avoid the responsibility of making it.

[AkFemDem]

31. So exciting!!!! I just feel an excitement around him that's reminiscent...

Of the days when we “discovered” Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

There’s something really magical about a non-heir-apparent swooping in and winning the hearts and minds of the voters.

[maximusveritas]

40. That's what he's trying to tap into

I thought he almost blew it with the way he stumbled early with the police controversy, but he seems to be finding his comfort zone positioning himself as the younger and more progressive alternative to Biden but more of a realist than the Sanders/Warren/Harris wing.

[Gothmog]

42. Accoding to Nate-only scant evidence for a Buttigieg surge.

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