New Emerson IOWA poll has Sanders 4th in primary race, but the only Dem beating Trump in GE

[highplainsdem]

This is a really interesting polling result that wasn't mentioned in the other OP about the poll, which was just about the primary race (Biden and Warren tied at 23%, Buttigieg at 16%, Sanders at 13%).

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-dead-heat-with-biden-and-warren-mayor-pete-continues-to-build-and-sanders-slides

President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters - 48 % - oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%).

In the GOP primary, Trump leads the field of four candidates with 93% of the vote. (n=286, +/- 5.7%)

In hypothetical head to head matchups, Trump has a slight advantage over Warren and Biden: 51% to 49%, while Sanders carries a 2 point advantage over Trump with 51% to 49%; all three match-ups are within the polls margin of error. (n=888, +/-3.2%)

Yes, that's all within the margin of error.

But it's still startling given Trump's low approval rating, and given the poll showing Biden and Warren tied with each having almost twice as much support as Sanders.

The polling has been very, um, interesting this year.

[qazplm135]

1. It's not startling

Because GE polls a year out are MEANINGLESS.

[LeftTurn3623]

2. wow

"while Sanders carries a 2 point advantage over Trump with 51% to 49%"


I guess that kind of hurts the Biden argument that only he can beat Trump when Sanders is the only one beating Trump head to head in Iowa

[emmaverybo]

4. In Iowa. One state. 3.3 percent black, 0.3 American Indian, 2.1 Asian, 0.1 Native Hawaiian and

other P.I., 90.9 white. (Wikipedia)

[ritapria]

3. No cellphone users contacted

571 landline users contacted ...318 voters contacted via an online panel ...Their LV group was a little over 300 and the poll's Margin of error is 5.5% ...They may be spot on (Who knows ?) but , in my opinion, their methodology is weak......

[highplainsdem]

5. What I don't understand is Sanders doing so poorly in the primary polling but beating other Dems in

GE polling.

[Blistering Sun]

9. If you were a Trumpist/Republican being polled in Iowa (no insult intended)...

who would you want the Democrats to nominate?

The guy who could beat Trump? Or somebody else.

This isn't a difficult thing to understand in my estimation.

[thesquanderer]

11. It's because Sanders has a lot of support outside the Dem base.

Same reason he was polling as the stronger candidate against Trump in 2016. The base liked Hillary but you need a good amount of support outside the base to win, even against a terrible candidate like Trump. Hillary did come awfully close though!

These general election head-to-heads is what I'll be watching as we get closer to primary election days, especially the ones for crucial states. I still favor Warren, but if someone else looks much more likely to win more states, I can easily switch. Whoever is likely to win us the most states (and likely bring those states' house and senate seats along with them) is the candidate I want.

[peggysue2]

6. What startles me is Buttigieg's numbers

Reportedly, Buttigieg is putting a lot of effort into Iowa and it's showing. He's an impressive speaker; I think that's showing, too. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change as we get more post-debate reaction.

What I don't get is how Sanders is besting Trump by 2 its when he's 4th in the state polling. Or am I missing something? Haven't had much sleep so it's highly likely.

[George II]

7. Boom.........

RCP current averages:

IA: EW 22.3, JB 21.7, BS 15.0
NH: EW 27.3, JB 24.0, BS 16.7
NV: JB 22.5, EW 18.5, BS 18.0
SC: JB 38.8, EW 14.0, BS 11.0

Ranks:

IA: EW 1, JB 2, BS 3
NH: EW 1, JB 2, BS 3
NV: JB 1, EW 2, BS 3
SC: JB 1, EW 2, BS 3

These include post-myocardial infarction polls.

[highplainsdem]

8. LOL! I just thought it was a weird poll.

[George II]

10. You responded before I added RCP numbers. But Buttigieg's performance isn't surprising...

He's the only "top tier" Midwesterner, and his RCP average is 13.0 vs. BS' 15.0, pretty close.

[qazplm135]

12. those averages certainly seem to track reality

I think Warren has a chance to close some room in SC but not overtake, and a small chance to win NV IF she over-performs the first two.