Democrats Now See Race as Warren v. Biden

[left-of-center2012]

-- BIG SKIP --

Democratic voters now see the presidential nomination race as a contest between Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden, a September national Monmouth University poll showed.

In the survey released Wednesday, Warren led Biden 28% to 25%, while the rest of the field lagged by double-digits.
Bernie Sanders was at 15%, down from 20% in August,
and Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris were both at 5%.

All other candidates in the race received less than 2%.

The poll also found the only 39% of all voters think President Donald Trump should get a second term in office; 57% said someone new should be elected.

The poll was conducted before Sanders’ announcement Wednesday that he had canceled campaign events “until further notice” after suffering chest discomfort requiring the installation of two stents.

https://tinyurl.com/y4mt6qb3

[questionseverything]

1. i will believe what i see with my own eyes after the iowa caucuses

I remember 2008 when the supposed favorite came in a distant 3rd

[Tiggeroshii]

4. 2008 or 2004?

I think Clinton and Obama were neck and neck in Iowa, no?

[questionseverything]

6. no obama came in first,edwards second clinton distant 3rd

[Tiggeroshii]

10. Obama 37.6, edwards 29.7, clinton 29.4

Well she still close to Edwards, anyways... it definitely was unexpected!

[questionseverything]

12. is why i don't believe a word of the polling at this point

[Tiggeroshii]

13. Seems there isn't a whole lot of reason to. Especially considering their track record.

[questionseverything]

14. yes if polling was reliable , we would have pres clinton in wh

(I wish)

[Polybius]

25. On the day of the election, didn't polls say she was 2 or 3 points ahead?

I think it tightened to 2 or 3 points.

[NurseJackie]

2. That's what I see as well.

I can be completely happy with either. At this point, the biggest mystery is who the VP choice will be.

[Polybius]

26. There's no doubt in my mind that Biden would pick Harris

Warren's choice would be a mystery. Possibly Castro.

[wasupaloopa]

3. Not me. Way too early yet

[ritapria]

5. Most of the polls oversample Seniors

Which probably means Warren's lead over Joe is around 4 % stronger than the topline result published

[TwilightZone]

7. Source, please.

I suspect the polling organizations know how to adjust for demographics.

Seniors are also, by far, the most reliable voting group.

[ritapria]

16. I observe the age demographic breakdown of their sample

They publish in their PDF ... If their sample of voters 65+ is 30% in State X and and the % of voters 65+ was actually 20% in the 2016 Dem Primary of State X , I conclude they are oversampling voters 65 + …… This is particulary evident in polls released by rinky-dink colleges and universities …...

[TwilightZone]

17. Right.

Documentation, please. Also, please provide evidence that the polling organizations aren't adjusting for that.

[Liberty Belle]

8. I expect Warren to rise if Sanders drops out or his supporters are concerned over his health.

They are more likely to back Warren then Biden.

[Thekaspervote]

9. FYI: polls asking who second choices are if candidates drop out. Sanders voters prefer Biden not EW

Happy to provide a link if you want

[Tiggeroshii]

11. I wonder if that would still be the same if Sanders made a strong endorsement of warren when he

dropped out

[norman_tonne]

19. if it did happen, his endorsement will go to warren. No one else shares his position as closely.

article from nypost that continues this line of thought
https://nypost.com/2019/10/02/bernies-woes-make-liz-warren-the-new-best-bet-to-win-the-dem-nomination/

[Tiggeroshii]

22. I think youre right.

And iys hard to believe he wouldnt aggressively campaign for that to happen.

[Blue_true]

15. It was going to be that all along. nt

[Garrett78]

18. Many seem to underestimate just how much can change in the next 4 months.

It's important to recognize that many people haven't even bothered, at this juncture, to distinguish between 20+ candidates, most of whom they've never heard of. Most people are not DU political junkies.

If Biden were to lose both IA and NH, we could see his support collapse and South Carolina would be in play.

[sarah92]

21. Sander's heatlth or Biden's flat fundraise or both ?

[cwydro]

24. I think it's a little early to think that.

Time will tell.