Nate Silver: Dems should be concerned about influence of IA/NH when both are 90%+ white

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

Have said this before but kinda seems like Democrats should be more concerned that Iowa and New Hampshire continue to have so much influence on the nomination process when both states' caucus/primary electorates are 90%+ white.

[JI7]

1. that's why having SC and Nevada on same day

would be best. but iowa and nh are very protective of their being the first ones to vote.

[brush]

43. They're first but not that important anymore as SC and Super Tuesday follow with constituencies...

much more reflective of the national Democratic Party (AAs and other POCs) and with California in now, many more delegates at stake.

[hlthe2b]

2. Not to mention the notoriously unreliable (and undemocratic) caucus system in Iowa...

soooo, glad that Colorado got rid of that.

[Cha]

24. Happy, too.. Colorado got rid of it..

they knew!

[wiley]

68. Me too! Caucuses are a real bad deal.

They always discriminate against a very large segment of voters.

[mucifer]

3. It would be nice if we had a democracy and everyone got to vote in the primary with the same amount

of candidates on the ballot for president.

But, nooooo we have to have this s-it show

[Salviati]

21. Unless everyone went with a ranked choice system...

... some winnowing of the candidates is a good thing, but I wish that the primary schedule wasn't set in stone. Set up cohorts of geographically and demographically diverse states, and have the cohorts rotate every election...

[iwannaknow]

4. A real concern. How did the "Iowa first" tradition get started?

They're certainly not a representative population.

[calguy]

19. In the early seventies the Iowa caucus was hardly noticed

In 1976 a relatively unkown candidate named Jimmy Carter made it important when he used it to to get a jump start for his campaign. Since then it's been given more importance than it deserves.

[ehrnst]

31. It has a lower cost media market, and that levels the playing field for those with

less to spend.

[econron]

5. Hey But We are Iowa Nice :)

Not as nice as Minnesotans ... maybe MN should move to the front of the line

They also have a great State Fair with crazy food

[Iliyah]

6. Tradition, and it's ok to a certain extent . .

But alas, t-rump and the Repubs won on stealing it and that is what we need to also focus on.

Democrats encompasses all. We are all Americans. Nothing wrong in caring about each other.

[George II]

7. That's what I've been saying for months. Of the four "early states"....

Iowa is 90.6% white, 3,100,000 residents
New Hampshire is 93.4% white, 1,300,000 residents
Nevada is 67.0% white, 3,100,000 residents
South Carolina is 67.2% white, 5,100,000 residents

Nevada and South Carolina more closely reflect the overall demographics of America, Iowa and New Hampshire reflect the demographics of white America.

[Cha]

25. Thanks for the stats, George!

[Tom Rinaldo]

66. I favor moving the Washington DC primary way up, preferably simultaneous with NH

What I appreciate about Iowa and NH being front ended in the primary process is that they are both small electorates which makes it possible for candidates who do not start out particularly well known or funded to campaign effectively person to person in those states and build a following and higher national profile. The OP, however, captures the problem with Iowa and NH kicking off the process. DC, though it is a relatively expensive media market, has a compact electorate that can easily be reached in person without huge media costs to do so AND it is a majority non white electorate. Having those three "retail" campaign elections kick off the Democratic primaries would balance out the demographics without making the early campaign cost prohibitive to candidates not yet well established.

[George II]

83. It would be best if ALL states held their primaries on the same day. I don't know why....

....they have to be spread out over two or three months.

Maybe it was a campaigning issue, candidates couldn't get to all the states if they're on one day. But this is 2019, there are other ways to reach the voters than in person. Plus, they've all been campaigning in various states for months anyway.

The other things that should be done is convert ALL caucuses to primaries, and make them all CLOSED to Democrats where they can. I'm not happy with non-Democrats, even independents, determining our Democratic candidate.

[Tiggeroshii]

8. That's why having all the primaries and caucuses on the same day woud be a lot more representative.

[dalton99a]

9. Stupid system where a bunch of rural whites have appointed themselves gatekeepers

and everyone has to make a pilgrimage to kiss their asses and get their blessings before proceeding further

[blm]

17. So they reflect working class white Midwest Americans that some moderate

Candidate campaign strategists have declared to be crucial to winning in the general election?

Odd that in almost every post we at DU can navel-gaze about electability in the general being all about who can motivate white, working class midwestern voters away from Trump. We are told by the strategist class that it has to be someone perceived to be moderate who won’t scare white working class midwesterners. Yet, some of those same strategists will say a majority white, midwestern state like Iowa doesn’t matter.

It’s a puzzlement.

[TwilightZone]

18. Not really.

Iowa is rather odd politically. It doesn't really represent anything other than Iowa. This is the same place that keeps reelecting Steve King and Chuck Grassley, for one.

[blm]

20. And Trump. My point is that 'strategists' are full of sh!t when they argue

That appealing to white working class midwestern voters is the only way to beat Trump and then out of the other side of their mouth say that Iowa doesn’t matter because it is too white, working class, and midwestern.

It’s kinda funny, though. Absurd, but, funny.

[treestar]

28. No one said it didn't matter

at all. And there is a difference between the primary and the general. The Electoral College means we have to appeal to the swing state voters. But in the primaries, we only need to appeal to the Democrats in each state.

But winning just one state, just because it is first to go, shouldn't over-influence people. State 2 matters just as much and State/territory 57 should too.

[blm]

33. I'm pointing out the absurdity of both arguments

Being made by some of the same people.

I guess that didn’t come across as I intended. Or maybe it did ..... for some.

[treestar]

34. Not absurd because

In the primaries we are only counting democrats of which AA voters mostly are. In the General we are counting all voters so for that we need more owhite support.

[blm]

35. Still not the point, but, I'll move on.

[Demsrule86]

39. Iowa is not Mid West and does not reflect Mid West.

It never was part of the blue wall ... and has more farms than factories.

[blm]

41. Sure, sure. Now states that went Obama AND Trump are NOT

States that matter anymore. And midwestern states are not REALLY midwestern states.

[Demsrule86]

47. All states matter...but not in determing the nominee who needs to reflect the will of the big tent

party. I have never understood why Iowa has any such power. Small state, mostly white and has a lousy undemocratic caucus system...doesn't even reflect the will of the entire state much less the country...and Bill Clinton did not win Iowa as I recall either. I actually think Biden will win Iowa or come close enough so it doesn't matter...and then on to super Tuesday where he will do very well. Iowa isn't going to make anyone say ...oh my EW won Iowa...now she can win a general because it is not true. She has my vote if she is the nominee but I think she wins the popular vote and loses the EC.

[blm]

48. Sure, because YOU say women of color don't like her

You may have missed this report. I have confidence that Elizabeth Warren has the heart, the intellect, the energy, and the talent to bring out Democratic voters.

https://www.apnews.com/7db90b8ea8284995864c4218f3773824

.....By the time Warren left the stage at the “She the People” forum, thousands of black women in the audience were on their feet roaring cheers and applauding. The reaction eclipsed the response earlier in the day to Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey — the black candidates in the Democratic contest. It reflected the unlikely traction that Warren, a 69-year-old white woman who lives in tony Cambridge, Massachusetts, is gaining with black women who are debating whom to back in a historically diverse primary.

“To have an ally — she’s a woman, but she’s not a black woman — who can speak intelligently and has thought about people who don’t look like you, that resonates,” said Roxy D. Hall Williamson, a 49-year-old who was in the audience. “She stole the show to me.”.....

[Demsrule86]

58. She is not their sort of candidate for the most part and if campaign rallies elected folks...

Last edited Wed Sep 4, 2019, 11:40 AM - Edit history (1)

we would have had a different nominee in 16...she is at 2% in all the polls. I see no reason why she climbs. You can like someone and still not vote for her/him in the primary. I like EW but would not support her in a primary...a general of course.

[Thekaspervote]

69. +1000

[Demsrule86]

73. Thanks...

[Voltaire2]

10. lol

Biden's handlers declare Iowa and NH dead meat and Nate shows up to echo the talking point.

[highplainsdem]

11. Nate has said this before. So have lots of others, including lots of DUers.

[Voltaire2]

12. whatever.

[highplainsdem]

14. LOL. Sorry to bother you with the facts.

[Cha]

26. lol..

[TwilightZone]

15. The idea is nothing new.

It's been discussed about as long as Iowa has been first, which was in 1972.

Here's an article from NPR from 2016 discussing it at length.

Quote:

"Is it fair that Iowa goes first? What's fair in politics? I mean, seriously. Yeah, OK, we're like 97 percent white, and we're really rural, and we don't look like a microcosm of America. But so what?""

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/29/464804185/why-does-iowa-vote-first-anyway

[Thekaspervote]

16. Nate Silver is a declared liberation, he doesn't have a "dog in the race."

Not to mention if he were to tilt polls or play favs his beloved 538 would die the death of a thousand cuts

[Hassin Bin Sober]

67. Yep.

Classic.

[Joe941]

13. A white population is not a good representative of progressive values...

Maybe the bigger question is why that is the case? It's not good to be racially divided.

[comradebillyboy]

22. Too true..nt

[pansypoo53219]

23. screw racists. EVOLVE. stop dividing america. say no to wall street + go main street.

[Demsrule86]

40. You have to field a candidate who can win...AA voters and that is particularly important in the blue

wall states...we will win with the electoral college or not at all. Taking a candidate you like and attempting to foist it on an unwilling electorate is madness. Trump must go. That should be everyone's priority.

[blm]

44. You keep saying Voters of color won't vote in the general

Unless the nominee is Biden. My Dem groups are majority women of color and not one of them has said they won’t vote for a nominee other than Biden. Most of them support Harris and Warren. Biden, Booker, and Pete are all supported, as well.

I think it’s just your wishful thinking.

The same wishful thinking you use when you insist that only Biden can win the white working class Midwest states.

[Demsrule86]

45. There was a decrease in Black voters in 16 and look what happened. Your candidate is not popular in

this community. I don't think we get the turnout we need.

[blm]

46. Horsepoo. They are just becoming familiar with her.

And when they see her unfiltered they like her more....enthusiastically. Your aim for weeks now here has been to try and convince people she CAN’T win in the general. That is YOUR weak conclusion.

I have confidence that Elizabeth Warren has the heart, the intellect, the energy, and the talent to bring out Democratic voters.

https://www.apnews.com/7db90b8ea8284995864c4218f3773824

.....By the time Warren left the stage at the “She the People” forum, thousands of black women in the audience were on their feet roaring cheers and applauding. The reaction eclipsed the response earlier in the day to Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey — the black candidates in the Democratic contest. It reflected the unlikely traction that Warren, a 69-year-old white woman who lives in tony Cambridge, Massachusetts, is gaining with black women who are debating whom to back in a historically diverse primary.

“To have an ally — she’s a woman, but she’s not a black woman — who can speak intelligently and has thought about people who don’t look like you, that resonates,” said Roxy D. Hall Williamson, a 49-year-old who was in the audience. “She stole the show to me.”.....

[Demsrule86]

51. She is at 2 % AA community across the polls... And my

daughter's boyfriend (POC) has said repeatedly that some of the guys he knew voted for Trump or stayed home...wouldn't vote for a woman. It won't take much of a decrease in this vote to cause us to lose the general...as we saw in 16. Now this is anecdotal but I have heard it before and statistics show this pobably did happen in 16. I will vote for and work for EW should she be the nominee, but as I said previously she would win a direct election and will most likely win the popular vote and lose the electoral college...which also jeopardizes the house.

We just elected 40 moderates in 18-they gave us the house...a candidate pereceived to be too far left could cost us the house. I want to win period. I have no interest in policy this year...any of our candidades works for me...but some work better in the electoral college than others. Elizabeth Warren doesn't in my opinion. But again, vote blue no matter who. I will vote for the nominee. Trump needs to go.

[blm]

53. They. Are. Just. Getting. To. Know. The. Candidates.

You tried to make the claim that women of color wouldn’t come out for Warren. Now it’s men of color. You have also referred to white working class Midwest voters who we need. Funny thing....ALL of these voters will ONLY vote for Biden in YOUR view.

[Demsrule86]

52. I live in Cleveland ...I have worked elections for years...I am telling you the AA constiuency in

this area and others (lived in different states) is moderate to conservative...EW is not their sort of candidate, and that isn't going to change. This vote is essential to win the Mid West states. Thus, I like EW but she is not the candidate for 20 when we must get rid of Trump or we could lose our Republic. It is that serious...and there is no amount of policy which isn't going to pass anyway that makes it worth taking this risk.

[blm]

57. I grew up in Cleveland suburbs.

Most of my family is still there.

You. Don’t. Speak. For. All. Democrats. You speak for YOUR view. The more people tune in to election matters, the more they will embrace more of the candidates.

I have confidence that Elizabeth Warren has the heart, the intellect, the energy, and the talent to bring out Democratic voters.

https://www.apnews.com/7db90b8ea8284995864c4218f3773824

.....By the time Warren left the stage at the “She the People” forum, thousands of black women in the audience were on their feet roaring cheers and applauding. The reaction eclipsed the response earlier in the day to Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey — the black candidates in the Democratic contest. It reflected the unlikely traction that Warren, a 69-year-old white woman who lives in tony Cambridge, Massachusetts, is gaining with black women who are debating whom to back in a historically diverse primary.

“To have an ally — she’s a woman, but she’s not a black woman — who can speak intelligently and has thought about people who don’t look like you, that resonates,” said Roxy D. Hall Williamson, a 49-year-old who was in the audience. “She stole the show to me.”.....

[Demsrule86]

59. I don't say I speak for all Democrats...but if the election continues and EW is

still not polling well with the AA community should she be the nominee in your opinion? And most of the suburbs around here voted for Trump. Cuyahoga went for Hillary. I live in Cleveland and work campaigns in Cleveland.

[blm]

64. Geez. You just don't WANT to get it.

[Demsrule86]

74. You don't believe it against all evidence...that is your right of course.

[blm]

85. Against all TOO EARLY primary polling.

I’ve worked campaigns since I was a schoolgirl in the 70s.

You are welcome to your wrongheadedness.

[Demsrule86]

86. haha....you can't offend me. I love a great debate/argument. I guess we shall see in the coming

days!

[wiley]

72. The AA and Latino communities are quite diverse, but generally are pragmatic centrists

It's not just a generational thing. I'm predicting a Biden/Harris ticket, andreally weish we would focus all of our efforts on the Senate, Governships and State legislatures. We should be registering voters now, and reaching out to voters now about these races, not POTUS. Itdoesn't matter who we nominate. They will win. We are being distracted by the media horserace money making bull.

[Demsrule86]

81. I don't think any nominee can win the electoral college.

[Thekaspervote]

70. I believe Demsrule66 is referring to this trend

Black dems in PA that admit they stayed home 2016 say they will vote for Biden in 2020

More at the link

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287253331

[Demsrule86]

75. Thanks for posting that ...yes. And there are others but I have to run...will look later.

[treestar]

27. The media does it

probably by going on about momentum and people let that influence them.

[crazytown]

29. White: WI 86%, PA 81%, MI 79%

[Demsrule86]

42. The AA vote in those states and the union working class vote together gives us the state or not.

[ecstatic]

63. Wow! Maybe it's time to move the first primary to Georgia?

According to the 2010 U.S. Census, Georgia had a population of 9,687,653. In terms of race the population was:

59.7% White American (55.9% Non-Hispanic White, 3.8% White Hispanic),
30.5% Black or African American)
8.8% Hispanics and Latinos of any race.
3.2% Asian American
0.3% American Indian and Alaska Native
0.1% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
4.0% from Some Other Race (including Hispanics)
2.1% Multiracial American (including Hispanics)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Georgia_(U.S._state)

Just a thought! It's obvious that the GOP has been stealing elections here.

[Demsrule86]

76. I think all primaries should be the same day. That would shorten the primary and get on withe the

business of winning the general...and everyone would be more involved.

[greymattermom]

30. I used to work for an organization that was over 90% white.

They often hired POC as department chairs and deans, and this was in the midwest too. I wonder what the real effect of race is on Iowa voters. Did Nate comment on that?

[Demsrule86]

36. The point is ...it is not a state that reflects our diversity and making it so they literally choose

our candidate is foolish...but I am not sure Iowa has the same clout this time or will in the future...it is a GOP state and should not go first anyway. But Iowa will not influence me one way or the other.

[ehrnst]

32. White male candidates have less concern clearly. Especially those who do better in

caucuses than in primaries.

[Gothmog]

37. I agree with Nate

Neither Iowa not New Hampshire reflect the demographics of the party

[TSIAS]

38. At one time Nate Silver was fair

Now he acts like a surrogate of the Biden campaign. From this point on he has been relegated to Nate Bronze.

[Demsrule86]

54. He has said stuff about Biden which I consider unfair...and think he is in the tank for

someone...when a person goes against your candidate,you always feel that way. I turned off MSNBC because of this.

[Peacetrain]

49. Well I am not worried in the least.. remember who sent President Obama off to win the election with

a win in Iowa.. don't sell us short or that we vote only one way.. we maybe on the white side of things.. but we are politically diverse.. and that is what you want.. diversity of thought.. we are so out there we can elect both a President Obama and a Steve King and everyone in between..

[honest.abe]

50. Its something to take into consideration but certainly nothing to worry about.

Our nominee needs to convince voters in all states that he/she is the best candidate.

I predict by the end of Super Tuesday, it will be clear who will win this thing.

[Demsrule86]

55. I actually agree with you although some have been making noises about a 'brokered' convention...seem

to think they are owed the nomination. I think supers can vote on the second ballot no matter what to shut that shit down...hope so anyway.

[honest.abe]

61. There wont be a brokered convention.

If it isn't Joe, someone else will break from the pack. That's just the way it almost always works. The last actual brokered convention was in 1952 and I dont see anything special about this cycle. In fact, I think its more likely that Democrats are going to quickly coalesce around a single candidate to ensure we have a strong unified voice against Trump and the Republicans.

[Thekaspervote]

71. Agree! Althou we know that mr. Sanders may push for it, surprisingly mayor Pete has also

Said his campaign is making plans for such

[Demsrule86]

77. Thank you for talkin me off the ledge as Rachel says!

[honest.abe]

78. HA! Welcome.

[Demsrule86]

80. It is scary...I want Trump gone...

[honest.abe]

82. Indeed.

[redstatebluegirl]

56. I have always felt like those two states have more power in the primaries than they should have.

[Demsrule86]

62. I think so too. And I really think those days are over. The big must win Iowa is fading...that

being said. Biden is ahead in Ohio and has a ground game that rivals Warren's. I bet it ends up split which means...absolutely nothing.

[ecstatic]

60. Mixed feelings. It does annoy me that IA and NH get so much attention,

and the caucus system is very questionable and possibly undemocratic; however, with regard to the demographics of Iowa, I'm not as concerned about that part anymore. Were it not for Iowa, I don't think we would have had President Obama. I'm grateful for the role they played in dramatically reshaping the narrative on Obama's "electability."

That being said, Steve King and his loyal supporters have really soured my impression of the state as a whole, so I wouldn't be bothered at all if they lost their prominent position in the primaries.

Also, I don't like the tone of Nate's tweet. It strikes me as manipulative. Don't tell me what to be concerned about. Thank you.

[BeyondGeography]

65. Have we ever lost a GE when our nominee won both IA and NH?

Just asking for a friend.

[Demsrule86]

79. This is an interesting article.

Please note that only two nominees who won Iowas became president...Carter and Obama. Also, Clinton (Bill) lost both and won... Only one person who won New Hamshire has become president...Carter so neither state is much good as a predictor.

"Iowa has been slightly better than New Hampshire at picking nominees on Democratic side. In fact, since 1976:

-- A whopping six eventual nominees have won Iowa, including the last three (Barack Obama, John Kerry and Al Gore).

-- Two Iowa Democratic winners have become president — Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama.

New Hampshire has picked:

-- Five nominees over that same time ...

-- Just one became president — Carter."

So since New Hampshire has such a poor record, you question is kind of moot...

More info...
"-- Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan all lost Iowa but went on to win the presidency.

https://www.npr.org/2016/01/31/465016222/how-predictive-are-iowa-and-new-hampshire

-- Bill Clinton didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire in 1992, but was still declared "The Comeback Kid" after his second-place finish in the New Hampshire."

[Gothmog]

84. Neither state represents the Demographics of the Party

I really do not care until we get to South Carolina where the primary reflects the demographics of the party