Democratic Primaries

bluewater

(5,376 posts) Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:17 PM Jul 2019

Biden's support plummets in SC

From the first post debate SC poll:

Democratic primary S.C.
Jun 29-Jul 4, 2019 C+ Change Research

Biden...... 27%
Harris..... 21%
Sanders.. 16%
Warren... 15%
Buttigieg.. 6%
Booker..... 6%
Gabbard.. 2%
O'Rourke 1%

Biden's lead is +6 in this poll, compared to +20 and +27 in two different polls back in June.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

My Disclaimer: This is an early poll. No single poll result should be over emphasized, especially this early.

Earlier poll results for SC can be seen here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

39 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Biden's support plummets in SC (Original Post) bluewater Jul 2019 OP

Just asking, but didn't you post this a couple of hours ago? Thekaspervote Jul 2019 #1

No , I most certainly did not. bluewater Jul 2019 #2

No need to be so upset, as I said I was just asking. Althou it was posted a few hrs ago Thekaspervote Jul 2019 #6

I know...reowwwww CurtEastPoint Jul 2019 #9

Biden still leads in S.C. emmaverybo Jul 2019 #3

"Plummet" is both inaccurate and melodramatic. LanternWaste Jul 2019 #4

Biden now + 6, was +20 and +27 in two earlier SC polls. bluewater Jul 2019 #5

Again, why so defensive? No one is arguing Thekaspervote Jul 2019 #7

Biden wasn't +20 and +27 in any Change Research polls. George II Jul 2019 #13

This is the first Change Research poll released for SC.... George II Jul 2019 #12

The link to the all previous SC polls was given in the OP bluewater Jul 2019 #14

Again, 'plummet' is at best, misleading. At worst, dishonest LanternWaste Jul 2019 #15

Plummet might be an understatement. bluewater Jul 2019 #16

I used to ask my father, "how do you spell xxxxx?" He'd say "look it up in the dictionary".... George II Jul 2019 #28

I know that, but there are no other Change Research polls to compare this to.... George II Jul 2019 #17

Even that's not true at all Bradical79 Jul 2019 #33

Thanks for the clarification Thekaspervote Jul 2019 #18

❣️ LakeArenal Jul 2019 #26

Hey you BannonsLiver Jul 2019 #19

Nailed it! R B Garr Jul 2019 #24

Bazinga! George II Jul 2019 #27

lol! Cha Jul 2019 #30

You better believe it. Drunken Irishman Jul 2019 #37

Snap! Tarheel_Dem Jul 2019 #38

Inaccurate Title -- doesn't help Senator BS Vegas Roller Jul 2019 #8

There are no previous "Change Research" polls to which this compares. I see on realclear.... George II Jul 2019 #10

+1. I'm not saying the race hasn't changed, but it hasn't changed as dramatically as the o.p. Tarheel_Dem Jul 2019 #21

Seems more like people are starting to pay attention to the Democratic field. tandem5 Jul 2019 #11

Change Research again? Tarheel_Dem Jul 2019 #20

Take it up with 538, it's on their site. bluewater Jul 2019 #23

And they rated "C+" for a reason. It's not reliable, with a "Republican lean". Tarheel_Dem Jul 2019 #25

Brings new meaning to the words littlemissmartypants Jul 2019 #35

Exactly! Tarheel_Dem Jul 2019 #36

Isn't this an on-line poll? StevieM Jul 2019 #22

You clearly have no idea how to read polls. SouthernProgressive Jul 2019 #29

You can't compare polls by different pollsters. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #31

Or not DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2019 #32

This thread is pure nonsense Bradical79 Jul 2019 #34

This message was self-deleted by its author crazytown Jul 2019 #39

Thekaspervote

(32,846 posts)

1. Just asking, but didn't you post this a couple of hours ago?

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:18 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

2. No , I most certainly did not.

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:19 PM

Jul 2019

I have been waiting for some new state polls to drop. This is the first SC poll since the middle of June, I believe.

Stunning turn-a-round, just look at the RCP Polls listings:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

Biden was over +20 and +27 in those.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,846 posts)

6. No need to be so upset, as I said I was just asking. Althou it was posted a few hrs ago

Reply to bluewater (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:30 PM

Jul 2019

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287198012

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

CurtEastPoint

(18,693 posts)

9. I know...reowwwww

Reply to Thekaspervote (Reply #6)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:36 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)

3. Biden still leads in S.C.

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:20 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)

4. "Plummet" is both inaccurate and melodramatic.

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:25 PM

Jul 2019

Subjective, poetic license is cool... as long as we admit (to ourselves if no one else) that's all it is.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

5. Biden now + 6, was +20 and +27 in two earlier SC polls.

Reply to LanternWaste (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:26 PM

Jul 2019

Plummet might be an understatement.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Thekaspervote

(32,846 posts)

7. Again, why so defensive? No one is arguing

Reply to bluewater (Reply #5)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:32 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

13. Biden wasn't +20 and +27 in any Change Research polls.

Reply to bluewater (Reply #5)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:49 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

12. This is the first Change Research poll released for SC....

Reply to LanternWaste (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:46 PM

Jul 2019

There was nothing from which to "plummet" from!

As I noted below, 538 shows Change Research as an "online" poll with a slight bias for republicans, and rates them C+.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

14. The link to the all previous SC polls was given in the OP

Reply to George II (Reply #12)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:51 PM

Jul 2019

Here it is again.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

Biden clearly plummeted from the polling average of all other previous SC polls.

The polls are what the polls are.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)

15. Again, 'plummet' is at best, misleading. At worst, dishonest

Reply to bluewater (Reply #14)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:55 PM

Jul 2019

Your inaccurate, subjective and editorializing notwithstanding, words mean what words mean.

(dictionaries really can help us... I found that out in second grade)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

16. Plummet might be an understatement.

Reply to LanternWaste (Reply #15)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:58 PM

Jul 2019

Harris has made huge in roads into Biden's support amongst African Americans.

It's starting to show.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

28. I used to ask my father, "how do you spell xxxxx?" He'd say "look it up in the dictionary"....

Reply to LanternWaste (Reply #15)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:58 PM

Jul 2019

I said "how can I look it up if I don't know how to spell it?"

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

17. I know that, but there are no other Change Research polls to compare this to....

Reply to bluewater (Reply #14)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:59 PM

Jul 2019

On the other hand, the only other two showed Biden +20 in the first and +27 in the second. I didn't see any posts saying "Biden's support SOARS in SC".

This is just one single data point, nothing more and nothing less.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Bradical79

(4,490 posts)

33. Even that's not true at all

Reply to bluewater (Reply #14)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 09:43 PM

Jul 2019

The range of dates given for the average you're refering to in that realclearpolitics page is 5/31-7/10

It is not an "average of all other previous polls". It runs through yesterday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Thekaspervote

(32,846 posts)

18. Thanks for the clarification

Reply to George II (Reply #12)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:09 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LakeArenal

(28,909 posts)

26. ❣️

Reply to George II (Reply #12)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:50 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BannonsLiver

(16,556 posts)

19. Hey you

Reply to LanternWaste (Reply #4)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:14 PM

Jul 2019

Don’t question UAWchild errr Bluwater’s poetic license.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

R B Garr

(17,027 posts)

24. Nailed it!

Reply to BannonsLiver (Reply #19)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:24 PM

Jul 2019

June was busy

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

27. Bazinga!

Reply to BannonsLiver (Reply #19)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:56 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(298,334 posts)

30. lol!

Reply to BannonsLiver (Reply #19)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 06:25 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

37. You better believe it.

Reply to BannonsLiver (Reply #19)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 11:36 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tarheel_Dem

(31,262 posts)

38. Snap!

Reply to BannonsLiver (Reply #19)

Fri Jul 12, 2019, 02:21 AM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Vegas Roller

(704 posts)

8. Inaccurate Title -- doesn't help Senator BS

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:32 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

10. There are no previous "Change Research" polls to which this compares. I see on realclear....

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:44 PM

Jul 2019

...that I can't find any "Change Research" in the list of polls for any states or nationally.

538 shows Change Research as an "online" poll with a slight bias for republicans, and rates them C+.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tarheel_Dem

(31,262 posts)

21. +1. I'm not saying the race hasn't changed, but it hasn't changed as dramatically as the o.p.

Reply to George II (Reply #10)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:17 PM

Jul 2019

would like us to think.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

tandem5

(2,072 posts)

11. Seems more like people are starting to pay attention to the Democratic field.

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 03:45 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tarheel_Dem

(31,262 posts)

20. Change Research again?

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:15 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

23. Take it up with 538, it's on their site.

Reply to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #20)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:23 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tarheel_Dem

(31,262 posts)

25. And they rated "C+" for a reason. It's not reliable, with a "Republican lean".

Reply to bluewater (Reply #23)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:26 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

littlemissmartypants

(22,979 posts)

35. Brings new meaning to the words

Reply to Tarheel_Dem (Reply #20)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 11:18 PM

Jul 2019

Fuzzy math.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tarheel_Dem

(31,262 posts)

36. Exactly!

Reply to littlemissmartypants (Reply #35)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 11:25 PM

Jul 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

StevieM

(10,500 posts)

22. Isn't this an on-line poll?

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 04:21 PM

Jul 2019

I don't believe that carries the same scientific weight.

All of these Change Research polls seem to be giving Buttigieg higher numbers than he is getting from other polling.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

SouthernProgressive

(1,810 posts)

29. You clearly have no idea how to read polls.

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 05:01 PM

Jul 2019

Your language here is nothing short of the bastardization of statistics.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)

31. You can't compare polls by different pollsters.

Reply to SouthernProgressive (Reply #29)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 06:27 PM

Jul 2019

?ve=1&tl=1

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts)

32. Or not

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 06:29 PM

Jul 2019

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287198533

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Bradical79

(4,490 posts)

34. This thread is pure nonsense

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Thu Jul 11, 2019, 09:50 PM

Jul 2019

You are comparing a new poll to a different polls. And the average of "past polls" you pointed to give a listed date that runs through yesterday, and an average of + 25.3. The newest poll there is still +21, which came out yesterday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Response to bluewater (Original post)

crazytown This message was self-deleted by its author.

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