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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sat Mar 2, 2019, 07:27 PM

 

The ONLY way the racist prick can steal another election is if it is close enough to steal

like last time and the ONLY reason it was that close in those 4 states was...

I will give you a hint, the constant BASHING of our candidate by people on ALL SIDES.

Am I wasting my time? Are there enough people here to make a difference? For each of you who read something here and you tell 5 people about it, is that enough?

Do I keep preaching the obvious in hopes people will GET IT? Not if this is a small sample of people, I dont. Maybe it is smaller than I think.

How many "alleged" votes did she lose by in those 4 states?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply The ONLY way the racist prick can steal another election is if it is close enough to steal (Original post)
Eliot Rosewater Mar 2019 OP
Kurt V. Mar 2019 #1
Garrett78 Mar 2019 #2
Eliot Rosewater Mar 2019 #5
Garrett78 Mar 2019 #6
Awsi Dooger Mar 2019 #3
Garrett78 Mar 2019 #4

Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Sat Mar 2, 2019, 07:32 PM

1. K&R the reason it was close is bc of outside interference. lets not make it close.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Sat Mar 2, 2019, 09:28 PM

2. There were numerous factors at play in 2016 that won't be in 2020.

 

Voter suppression and Russia's social media campaign will continue to be factors. Same with gerrymandering.

But, as I wrote the other day:

We had dominated PA, WI and MI ever since 1992 (winning by an average of 7+ points in those states). Then, in 2016, we had 2 historically unpopular candidates facing off (thus, turnout was somewhat suppressed and 3rd party voting was higher than normal). Clinton because millions had been conditioned to hate her over a period of 25 years, and Trump because he's a giant asshole. Clinton was our best option in 2016 and she'd be president if not for shenanigans, but let's not kid ourselves, she is hated by a large percentage of the population.

We had Comey's last minute announcement. We had a build-up of racial resentment (no, it wasn't economic anxiety) combined with a 'let's give an outsider a shot' attitude. We had Russia's foul play (aspects of which will remain an issue).

Now, Trump isn't new anymore. Newness carries a lot of weight, especially when the other party has been in power. He's a fully known quantity and he's despised. It's not just that well over 50% disapprove; after all, he had a low approval rating even when he was running in 2016. It's that close to 50% indicate strong disapproval, and that's significant (though still 50 points too low). We have an opportunity to nominate someone who will contrast (in just about every way) with Trump--to our benefit.

With Harris (and maybe Beto as VP), I think 360+ electoral votes would be within reach. I think we would see record-breaking Dem turnout.

Trump, if he doesn't resign, will be even more damaged than he is currently. Mueller, the SDNY and the Democratic-controlled House are only going to make Trump even less viable over the next 20 months.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #2)

Sun Mar 3, 2019, 12:51 PM

5. Hillary was "historically unpopular?" Why did she win by 3 million votes?

 

That is the kind of talk that if repeated this time around wont be helpful.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #5)

Sun Mar 3, 2019, 01:01 PM

6. It simply won't be true this time around.

 

Clinton is highly regarded by many. She's also despised by many thanks to 25 years of brainwashing. Those aren't mutually exclusive. Both she and Trump had a net negative approval rating.

538 wrote an article about the record-breaking nature of their unpopularity: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Eliot Rosewater (Original post)

Sat Mar 2, 2019, 10:12 PM

3. Only a fool thinks it won't be close

 

Trump's approval among actual voters is considerably higher than his generic approval number. He had 45% approval on election day 2018 simultaneous to 538 reporting 41.8% that day.

Incumbency is massive. The claims of 360+ electoral votes are laughable. Situational influence absolutely obliterates day to day analysis and conventional wisdom from afar. Once a Republican won 2016 we had to understand it was likely a 2-for-1.

The current optimism here reminds me of offseason on every football message board, where the team is projected to go undefeated no matter what happened a year earlier. In politics the basic cause of the misplaced optimism stems from the first term midterm, which always slants heavily to the out party and the members of that out party can't imagine what could possibly change two years later.

We have a small theoretical edge if Trump's approval rating remains where it is right now. But we can't afford a nomination mistake...forecasting someone as special when the fall would reveal otherwise. When Beto is losing the white male vote 72-28 against Cruz despite running the type of campaign he did, that demonstrates just how far that pivotal voting block has slipped away. It impacts everything, including our ability to win by any type of decent margin.

Of course, a vote switch conspiracist can never be wrong. No risk whatsoever. Just whine theft if the result doesn't fall your way. That's been going on here since 2004. It is a wonder that some related words haven't already reached their internet quota.

My words may not be cheerleader caliber but I don't mind anyone quoting them in fall 2020.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #3)

Sat Mar 2, 2019, 10:26 PM

4. Incumbents aren't typically under multiple serious criminal investigations.

 

Investigations that will still be ongoing a year and a half from now.

I don't think 360+ electoral votes is likely, by the way. But I think it's within the realm of possibility. I do think 300+ is likely.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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