Where are Bernie Sanders gains going to come from?

[MineralMan]

As things stand right now, the only way for Bernie Sanders to gain in polling percentages, both in primary states and nationally, is to peel off supporters from Hillary Clinton. With over 90% of poll respondents now in one camp or another, there are precious few available undecided voters anywhere.

So, how will he take those supporters out of Hillary Clinton's camp? He's pretty much made his positions and proposals clear in most important areas. In most cases, the two aren't far apart in what they propose, so that makes it tough to woo voters who have already decided who they're supporting.

If Hillary Clinton made a serious gaffe of some kind, that might work, but with her current 2:1 national lead, there's not much reason for her to take chances with what she says. She's holding her positions and responding to situations carefully and thoughtfully, and doesn't appear on the verge of doing or saying anything really stupid.

The ISIS situation, the Paris shootings and the growth of support for attacking ISIS by our strong allies has strong public awareness ratings. An increase in mass shootings, and growing public support for strong responses to things like police violence against minorities is not very fertile ground for distinguishing between the two primary candidates.

Public concern, right now, and probably into the near future, appears to have shifted from economic issues to security issues. Clinton's infrastructure proposal is gaining broad support from state and local officials, and is a net positive for Clinton. I can't think of a way that Sanders can differentiate himself on those issues, either.

Then there's the holiday season. Are people really focusing on the primary races right now? Not really. There's plenty of alarming news to keep them distracted from politics and the holidays are generally a down time for thinking about next year's primary elections. It's going to be tough for candidates to get a lot of press, really, for awhile. Meantime, with 90%+ of people already having decided who they support, they can ignore politics for the next month or so. They probably will.

So, I'm not seeing where Bernie Sanders is going to have many opportunities to strip poll numbers away from Hillary Clinton right now. Since she currently has a 2:1 advantage in national polling, only Iowa and New Hampshire are in play right now, and there isn't much change going on right now in those numbers. Hillary's leading a bit in Iowa and tied in New Hampshire. The other two February Primaries and most of the Super Tuesday Primaries show large leads for Clinton.

Not much opportunity right now for Sanders, I think, to increase his support. I could be wrong, of course, but I doubt it.

[NCTraveler]

1. It seems at this point that the voters are unifying around Clinton.

In my opinion it isn't a question of where is his support going to come from, it's where is it going. That answer is much easier.

As for your question directly, Sanders needs Paul and other republican support. It has been talked about by his supporters here often, so I'm not saying something they don't already back. Problem is, that does nothing for Sanders in the primary. Wouldn't do anything for progress in the General either.

[MineralMan]

5. That appears to be what the aggregate polling curves indicate.

I think we're about to enter the Holiday doldrums in the primary campaign, too. Further, people are focused on other news right now, and the GOP clown show is capturing most of the political news coverage. The Democratic race is far down on the priority list for the news media right now. That also doesn't bode well for much change in current polling.

I expect the polls to hold right through the New Year.

[clydefrand]

2. You know,

I think a lot of people are going to vote for Bernie, but just don't want to admit.
I'm voting for Bernie and don't care who knows, except for the pollsters.. When they call
I tell them so.

[MineralMan]

6. Do you? I suppose that coulld happen, but

I'm not seeing any indication of it outside of DU and a few other places.

[VanillaRhapsody]

7. Why would they do that?

And on second thought.....what besides magical thinking makes you think that?

[ismnotwasm]

13. The Sanders supporters I know are enthusiastic and vocal

I'm not sure why they wouldn't want to admit it. DU and KoS--both large progressive sites, have members that overwhelmingly support Senator Sanders. He has a large grassroots campaign, many social media pages, tweets, etc. There is nothing to hold someone back from admitting they support Sanders.

The Millenials who support him WILL vote, (my issue with using Millenials as a van-guard is that they are not a monolithic whole supporting Sanders, rather, they are quite diverse) and posters are correct saying those numbers may not be accurately represented I think. The actual numbers in play is an open question.

What's left are the undecideds--a pragmatic bunch usually, and I'm not sure there's enough to swing enough votes to help Sanders.

It's too early to call, and if I have to vote for Sanders in the GE I will--it's just not looking likely at the moment.

[Blue_Adept]

16. That's what's been said about hillary supporters

in that they're not being vocal and keeping it quiet because they don't want people to know for whatever reason. Like they're ashamed of it or something.

[MineralMan]

19. Actually, they are letting people know, every time

a poll is taken. Frankly, the only place I discuss politics is here on DU. I won't start campaigning until next year. Once it's clear who the nominee will be, then my yard signs, bumper stickers and precinct canvassing will begin. I don't do primary work, except for legislative offices.

Watch the polls. The polling companies know how to take the pulse of the voters. They're pretty good at it, really.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. MOM is surging in New Hampshire

I suspect the real action will be between MOM and SBS.

[MineralMan]

8. Possibly. However, that will just shift

the second and third place numbers a bit. I don't see it affecting Clinton's results much at all. Could MoM strip off some Sanders support? I suppose so, although I'm not sure why that would happen.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Overall yes, but if MOM can raise his NH support into the teens it can dramatically affect that ...

Overall yes, but if MOM can raise his NH support into the teens it can dramatically affect that primary.

[MineralMan]

11. If he can get it above 15%, he'll get some delegates, too.

We shall see how that goes and from which candidate his gains come.

[Kentonio]

26. It's so cute watching you guys echo chamber each other.

A little tiring that you continue this pretense of 'asking serious unbiased questions' of course, but hey..

[MineralMan]

28. I'm glad you're enjoying it.

Thanks for the reply.

[Kentonio]

29. Any time.

[Capt. Obvious]

4. I didn't think it was this much

[MineralMan]

10. You don't think what was this much?

You're counting OPs? I do post one or two a day, but that's far fewer than many other posters do. I'm here every day, and I do post on DU.

I'm flattered that you're interested enough to count my OPs in November. Whatever floats your boat, I guess.

[onehandle]

12. Every person I know is voting for Bernie.

So are our cats.





Made you look.

[MineralMan]

14. Well, a lot of the people I know on DU sure are.

In meatspace, though, not so much. I try not to focus too hard on what people say on DU, really. Just to keep my balance, I watch polling results. They seem to reflect a broader slice of the population somehow.

My cats are for Hillary. The beagles? I don't think they care, as long as their food bowls don't go empty and there are pee spots in the snow for them to sniff.

[brooklynite]

15. Answer: "secret voters"

They're right there in plain sight, but avoid being polled. They're all disaffected from politics, but are waiting to vote for Bernie and surprise everyone.

At least, that's what I get told here; apparently nobody's told Bernie.

[MineralMan]

17. Hmm...more like "secret non-voters," I think.

I've seen a lot of primaries come and go. Turnouts all seem to be about the same. 2008 was a little different, but I'm not "feelin' the excitement" for 2016, generally. It's certainly evident here on DU, but I doubt that's as general as many people think.

We'll see, of course.

Still, you'd think that Sanders fans would be eager to respond to polling. They certainly respond to Internet polls. Maybe it's those "likely voter" and "registered Democrat" things. How are Bernie's registration drives going, I wonder?

[onehandle]

18. I've been told that we Hillary supporters are lying when polled.

And that we will vote for Senator Sanders at the voting booth.

What if they are right?

[MineralMan]

22. Hmph! I can't imagine anyone doing that, frankly.

Why on Earth would anyone lie about whom they support? Makes zero sense.

People keep talking about not seeing any Hillary bumper stickers. I haven't seen ANY bumper stickers so far. Not a single one, except for a few Obama 2012 stickers here and there. They're getting a bit flaky by now.

Concern about primary campaigns is not high, it seems to me. People have other stuff going on, especially as we move into December. And then there's all the bad news. That's pretty distracting. Plus, the GOP clown show is always diverting and interesting to watch on the news. The Democratic primaries? "Oh, yeah, Hillary... She'll get my vote, if I bother to vote. I don't usually vote in those things. She's way ahead, anyhow, right?"

[Bjorn Against]

20. Your premise is false, Bernie can win without peeling off large numbers of Hillary supporters

The way to win is not to peel off candidates from other supporters, while it certainly helps if you can do that it is usually very difficult to accomplish and it is far more effective to focus on turning out your supporters and winning new support. (Remember that the polls only measure likely Democratic voters, there are huge numbers of people who are not included in these polls and winning even a small portion of them can really change the dynamics of a race).

The way Bernie wins is by motivating people to get to the polls. Primary elections generally have very low turnout and if Bernie can get his supporters to the polls he can win.

[MineralMan]

23. True. Caucuses and Primaries Have Low Turnouts.

Always. I'll keep an eye out for all of those new voters. I never seem to see them, though. Maybe it will be different this year. Who can say?

[DCBob]

21. Millions of imaginary millennials who have never voted before and not being counted in the polls.

I don't buy it but think that's the theory. There will be some but not enough to make a difference. However, the fact that Bernie is able to connect with this group is significant and shouldn't be dismissed. Even if Hillary can win this election without them we need those folks to be on our team for the future.

[MineralMan]

24. They might make up 5% of the total primary vote in some

states. It would be great if 5% more people turned out for the primaries. I don't think that will be enough, though, to change the outcome.

I do know that Bernie Sanders will endorse the nominee after the convention, if it's not him. Maybe some of those new voters will show up at the general election. I sure hope so.

[Gore1FL]

25. Maybe the same place that

Barack Obama's came from against Hillary, or
John Kerry's came from against Dean, or
Bill Clinton's came from against Tsongas, or
Micheal Dukakis' came from against Hart, or
Jimmy Carter's came from against Udall, or...

That's why we actually have elections!

[merrily]

27. Why trouble your head about it, then?

[MineralMan]

30. Why not? I'm a political sort of guy.

I love politics and elections. Why would I be on DU if that were not the case? My head isn't troubled at all, though. It's primary season. It's all fascinating. I've been following political campaigns since 1960, when I was still a high school sophomore. Why would I stop now that I'm 70?

I hope that answers your question. I appreciate the reply, and am always happy to answer questions.

[merrily]

31. If I were very certain my candidate would win, I wouldn't perserverate about it.

Has nothing to do with how long you've been following politics.

[MineralMan]

32. OK. But I'm not you.

Last edited Thu Dec 3, 2015, 03:39 PM - Edit history (2)

I take a different approach. Perseverance is my middle name, or something similar. MineralPerseveranceMan.

[merrily]

40. Are you sure you're not me?

[MineralMan]

41. Pretty sure. About as sure as it is possible to be.

You could, I suppose, be a doppelganger of me, but I doubt it very much. I suspect our genetic makeup is widely divergent.

[MineralMan]

38. Two points for your word choice. But minus one,

since there are only two instances of the letter "r" in that word. It's perseverate. It's a very common error, though, so not a very big deal, really.

[merrily]

39. A typo post? Really?

[MineralMan]

42. Personally, I like it when people point out a misspelling

in my posts. I make note of it and try hard not to make the same mistake again. So, yes, a typo post.

[merrily]

43. It was a typo, but thanks for insisting it was a misspelling, even after I said otherwise.

"error" "misspelling"

[seaglass]

33. It's an interesting question. I haven't decided yet because I don't feel I need to, there is

still plenty of time before I vote. My daughter 26 is undecided, my son 24 probably won't vote and my husband hasn't decided yet.

So in my small, non-representative polling I would extrapolate that many others are not committed yet and probably won't be until after the holidays. That could lead to a change in numbers for any of the candidates although honestly I am not seeing any of them overcoming Hillary's lead unless she really steps in it.

[jeff47]

34. From the mountain of unenthusiastic Clinton "supporters"

who have been told over and over again that Sanders is unelectable.

The only supporters you should consider "locked in" are the ones who report they are very enthusiastic. Clinton doesn't actually have all that many of them.

[MineralMan]

35. When does that begin, I wonder?

It's not showing up in the polls. Just the opposite, in fact.

[jeff47]

36. Last time it began in January.

Why do you insist it has to have already happened this time?

[MineralMan]

37. Well, then. January is just around the corner.

We'll learn soon, I guess.