2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWSJ poll: Bernie won debate 44-32
Sanders 44
Clinton 32
O'Malley 2
http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-44-of-democrats-think-bernie-sanders-won-debate-1447609672
RandySF
(59,697 posts)jfern
(5,204 posts)RandySF
(59,697 posts)The survey, conducted for The Wall Street Journal by Google Consumer Surveys, polled 836 Democratic primary voters by displaying questions to people who visit a set of online news and entertainment websites. The Internet users were asked to answer the questions in exchange for access to those sites.
Democratic primary voters who answered the questions said that, based on the debate, Mr. Sanders was the candidate who could best handle the job of president and was best suited to improving the economy.
A substantial 58% judged Mr. Sanders as the candidate who best understands the problems facing people like you, compared with 27% who chose Mrs. Clinton and 4% who named Mr. OMalley.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251814204
jeff47
(26,549 posts)So clearly it doesn't work at all.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Or the WSJ poll done by Google consumer surveys?
Aren't those two different polls?
jeff47
(26,549 posts)I'm talking about Google Consumer Surveys itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Consumer_Surveys
(And apparently I missremembered 2014 instead of 2012)
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)PPP was the most accurate:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/266615-study-finds-ppp-kos-the-most-accurate-pollsters-in-2012
You know PPP? The same poll that just showed Hillary blowing out Bernie in the second debate.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)like the one paid for by Clinton's SuperPAC.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Keep trying.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)But please, keep demonstrating just how much you are about "being flexible with the truth".
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)But I am curious about one thing. If the polls say Hillary won, and the votes say Bernie did, who are you going to believe?
BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)It's an online public opinion poll with method yielding a higher rate of accuracy than properly done telephone surveys.
The emergence and evolution of online polling has left in its wake a sense of disdain by many informed people for polls emerging from that platform.
While that feeling is a legitimate response to the traditional internet polling conducted alongside some local news clickbait piece of sensationalistic 'journalism', there has emerged serious methods that deserve serious consideration as we move forward.
We've seen a fair amount of this polling already this primary season and we will undoubtedly be seeing a tremendous amount in the months ahead. This information is provided to help DUers place the results of that polling in its context. You might want to bookmark this for dealing with the inevitable disagreements about validity.
From Google:
Paul McDonald, Matt Mohebbi, Brett Slatkin Google Inc.
Abstract
This study compares the responses of a probability based Internet panel, a non-probability based Internet panel and Google Consumer Surveys against several media consumption and health benchmarks. The Consumer Surveys results were found to be more accurate than both the probability and non-probability based Internet panels in three separate measures: average absolute error (distance from the benchmark), largest absolute error, and percent of responses within 3.5 percentage points of the benchmark. These results suggest that despite differences in survey methodology, Consumer Surveys can be used in place of more traditional Internet based panels without sacrificing accuracy.
http://www.google.com/insights/consumersurveys/static/consumer_surveys_whitepaper.pdf
From Pew Research Center:
NOVEMBER 7, 2012
<snip>
Pew Research and Google Comparisons
From May to October, 2012, the Pew Research Center compared results for more than 40 questions asked in dual frame telephone surveys to those obtained using Google Consumer Surveys. Questions across a variety of subject areas were tested, including: demographic characteristics, technology use, political attitudes and behavior, domestic and foreign policy and civic engagement. Across these various types of questions, the median difference between 43 results obtained from Pew Research surveys and using Google Consumer Surveys was 3 percentage points. The mean difference was 6 points, which was a result of several sizeable differences that ranged from 10-21 points and served to increase the mean difference.
Differences between the Pew Research surveys and Google results occur for a number of reasons. Given that Google Consumer Surveys does not use a true probability sampling method, and its sampling frame is not of the general public, differences in the composition of the sample are potentially of greatest concern. A comparison of several demographic questions asked by Pew Research indicates that the Google Consumer Surveys sample appears to conform closely to the demographic composition of the overall internet population. Communication device ownership and internet use also aligns well for most, though not all, questions. In addition, there is little evidence so far that the Google Consumer Surveys sample is biased toward heavy internet users.
Some of the differences between results obtained from the two methodologies can be attributed to variations in how the questions were structured and administered. During the evaluation period, we typically tried to match the question wording and format. However, some exceptions had to be made since many of the questions were part of longstanding Pew Research trends and had to be modified to fit within the Google Consumer Surveys limits and the different mode of administration (online self-administered vs. interview-administered by telephone).
The context in which questions are asked could also explain some of the differences; questions in Pew Research surveys are asked as part of a larger survey in which earlier questions may influence those asked later in the survey. By contrast, only one or two questions are administered at a time to the same respondents in the Google Consumer Surveys method.
The Google Consumer Surveys method is a work in progress and the Pew Research Centers evaluation began shortly after its inception and continued for six months. The testing is ongoing, and we will continue to evaluate their methodology.
<snip>
http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/07/a-comparison-of-results-from-surveys-by-the-pew-research-center-and-google-consumer-surveys/
List of some recent Google research on their survey methods and analysis.
http://research.google.com/pubs/MarioCallegaro.html
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Well, you know the scientific ones are skewed.
jfern
(5,204 posts)And PPP was paid for by Hillary.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)And we all know how that turned out. Their methods must be flawed.
=============
http://www.ijreview.com/2015/10/445621-ignore-the-media-pundits-bernie-sanders-won-the-first-democratic-debate/
Response to DCBob (Reply #9)
JackInGreen This message was self-deleted by its author.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)winter is coming
(11,785 posts)It's no surprise she got a bump from that.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I guess you guys dropped that dumb argument.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)most of Biden's supporters would go to Hillary (another status quo candidate), not Bernie.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Regardless the poll in question was likely flawed after first debate and appears flawed again with this debate. The next round of polling should show that.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)A set-up for creating the appearance that Bernie's support was declining.
Biden"s support came from Hillary and now has returned to Hillary.
On the West Coast in Democratic, liberal circles, almost no one supports Hillary outside the Reliable cadres of the Democratic Party leadership and uninformed, disinterested voters. Long time to the Democratic convevtion in 2026.
Bernie is still new to the national political stage. Lots can and I believe will change before the convention.
Feel the Bern!
Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)JackRiddler
(24,979 posts)Did they have the primaries and I missed it?
brooklynite
(94,950 posts)...and who believe that the SPONSOR of the debate should be considered...
...are willing to accept a Wall Street Journal-sponsored poll because it fits their narrative.
BeanMusical
(4,389 posts)zwyziec
(173 posts)An aging, elder, jewish, socialist run and be beat by any of the kindergarten level GOP candidates. The poll is a set up.
jfern
(5,204 posts)And tends to poll better in general election polls.
And regardless of electability, Wall Street prefers Hillary over Bernie.
Not one except for the one by Public Policy Polling, directly paid for by Correct the Record which is coordinating directly with the Clinton Campaign, and using pre-screened participants gave Hillary the win.
Debate winner Poll Roundup #Feelthebern
Straw Poll from Drake Univesity in Iowa]
Sanders 116 (67%)
Clinton 36 (21%)
O'Malley 20 (12%)
TIME
http://time.com/4110860/democratic-debate-poll-who-won/
Sanders 80%
Clinton 15%
O'Malley 5%
CBS Local
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2015/11/14/poll-who-do-you-think-won-the-second-democratic-presidential-debate/
Sanders 94%
Clinton 4%
O'Malley 2%
http://www.enstarz.com/articles/119894/20151114/who-won-democratic-debate-did-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-or-martin-omalley-impress-you-poll.htm
Sanders 90%
Clinton 6%
O'Malley 4%
Slate
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/11/democratic_presidential_debate_who_won_vote_in_our_poll.html
Sanders 80%
Clinton 14%
O'Malley 3%
Syracuse.com
http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/11/poll_who_won_saturdays_democratic_2016_presidential_debate.html
Sanders 92%
Clinton 5%
O'Malley 3%
Washington Times
http://www.washingtontimes.com/polls/2015/nov/14/who-won-2nd-democratic-debate/
Sanders 95%
Clinton 4%
O'Malley 3%
Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/democrats/11996604/Democratic-debate-who-won.html
Sanders 87%
Clinton 7%
O'Malley 5%
FOX
http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/11/14/poll-who-won-the-2nd-democratic-debate/
Sanders 88%
Clinton 9%
O'Malley 3%
CSPAN
https://www.facebook.com/CSPAN?_rdr=p
Sanders 80%
Clinton 16%
O'Malley 4%