Paul Ryan is no Sarah Palin (and that's either really good or really bad)...
I remember waking up the morning of the Palin announcement. I was disappointed because McCain had chosen the day after Obama's fantastic speech in Denver and I realized, flipping through the channels, his words were already an afterthought. When I went to bed the night before, I really didn't expect to awake to news that McCain had chosen his running mate. I anticipated he'd at least give Obama a chance to bask in the glory of accepting the nomination - a pretty historical night, all things considered.
Then again, in retrospect, I can't figure out why I thought McCain would wait. His campaign didn't do many things right, but picking Palin the day after that speech was probably their smartest move of the campaign. Not the pick itself, mind you, just the fact they did it less than 24 hours after his speech, therefore negating any potential buzz & momentum Obama was bound to have had it been left to linger during the buildup to the Republican Convention.
But I remember being pissed. I also remember being perplexed because I really didn't know who Sarah Palin was. He hadn't officially picked her yet, but the news was already leaking that she was their girl and it left me Googling her like hell.
I'll admit, I was a bit worried. She was attractive, had a fairly attractive family and, in the videos I saw on YouTube, seemed pretty charismatic. She certainly didn't stumble and bumble in those videos like she later would, but of course, at this point, there weren't many references - so, it's not a surprise we didn't get to know the real Palin until later.
But that day, I was worried because I knew she would energize the base. I also wondered if she'd energize swing voters because, frankly, swing voters are a fickle bunch and there really is no rhyme or reason toward their selections.
Then at the convention, I became more concerned because, dammit, this unknown neophyte was kicking ass. Of course, I didn't think she'd be enough to win the election for McCain, but I worried she'd be enough to make it closer than it should be.
When the polls shifted, in early September, and McCain seized the lead, that's when I started wondering what the hell was going on. The news during that stretch was disgustingly pro-McCain and all about this new political sensation who was setting the campaign on fire trail. I'll concede, even today, Palin's initial roll out was superbly done - and it reached its climax with 60,000 at a rally in Orlando. It was by far McCain's biggest crowd yet and it was all because of Sarah Palin.
Of course, the bottom fell out and Palin became increasingly toxic to middle of the road voters. Florida, which looked lost in August and September, was put back into play and Palin was now seen as more a liability than an asset. Yet she was garnering huge crowds and remained very popular among the base.
So, while she eventually cost McCain some votes, she probably also gained him votes. Who knows, maybe without Palin, Obama flips Missouri and Montana, two states where the conservative turnout probably helped McCain.
In the end, Palin's candidacy injected new life into a floundering campaign. For that, she should be praised. McCain was DOA after Obama's speech in Denver and Palin revived their hopes. She made it a contest. First it giveth, then it taketh away and boy did Palin do that.
Ryan is not Palin. He's not nearly as charismatic and while he's adored by the base, he doesn't bring that it factor to the game like a Palin or Obama could. He's not someone most Americans will go out of their way to see live - a great deal did for Palin. The life Romney is hoping to inject into his campaign probably won't come from Paul Ryan. It's going to be an external event, a sudden economic recession or a crisis afar that somehow bolsters Romney's image. But unlike Palin, he just doesn't have what it takes to shift the race in seismic-like fashion.
Conversely, he's much smarter than Palin. Ryan is no dummy and he'll string together a few sentences without looking like a complete idiot. Palin couldn't do that and when the shine came off, it became apparent McCain had picked an overwhelmed, under-experienced lightweight who couldn't cut it on the national scene.
Ryan can and he will.
Of course, he's not a game changer or a bold move. Tim Pawlenty is smart and so is Rob Portman. They're boring, of course, and wouldn't receive quite the buzz Ryan saw with the base, but they're also not divisive figures who could turn off voters. Ryan is. Like Palin, Ryan has often staked unpopular positions that put him at odds with a great deal of the electorate. Like Palin, Ryan very well could have just shifted Florida into the Obama column for good. Like Palin, Ryan might not bring much to the table electorally - he's not going to be the difference in Wisconsin, especially since he hasn't held state-wide office there.
Portman? He could have put Ohio in play. Rubio? Very well could have solidified Florida for Romney.
Ryan ain't winning Wisconsin for Romney. He might initially see some poll improvement there, but it won't last. If Obama loses Wisconsin, it's because, like I said, some external event shifted public opinion.
And that leads us to the final, repetitive point: Ryan isn't Palin. Palin revived a dying campaign, even if only briefly. For Romney to win, he has to revive his campaign. Ryan isn't Palin and because of that, it's going to be harder for him to revive this campaign. If they can't revive it, it doesn't matter how many conservatives like Ryan, come November, they're going to lose.
No, Ryan is no Palin.
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