2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDear Vice President Biden: Thanks for all of your great service, but please don't run. If you want
to help the party, please do one or both of the following:
(1) make a speech on income equality in which you acknowledge that Sen. Sanders has made this a theme of both his entire career and his current presidential campaign; help Sanders bring his message to a larger audience;
(2) make a speech on the blatant hypocrisy of the right-wing media for manufacturing a private-email-server attack on Clinton when Bush-Cheney did the same, John Ellis "Jeb" Bush did the same, Scott Walker did the same, Marko Rubio did the same, Chris Christie did the same, Rick Perry did the same, Piyush "Bobby" Jindal did the same, etc.
If you want to help the party and honor your worthy legacy, help the party by bolstering its excellent candidates (Martin O'Malley could use a shout out, too) but don't put yourself in the spoiler position of Bradley '00 or Kennedy '80. Don't go out as a spoiler.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)encouraging comments about all of the Democratic candidates in the race.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Any comments favoring the candidates should not be limited to just one candidate.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Endorse Hillary Clinton by mistake right?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)enough for you?
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)He won't be running.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)it although he's been doing a lot of rounds lately; appearing at gatherings. He has every opportunity to say he's not running, but he's so far refrained from doing that. So, imo, until he actually says he won't be running, no one can say he won't.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Mnpaul
(3,655 posts)He was being pushed by the party to run. I think he wants to step away from politics and spend more time with his family. Maybe take that Corvette for a cruise beyond his driveway(he is limited to going up and down the driveway by the Secret Service).
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)however I'm not VP so I don't know what Joe will get out of being president? A lot of hassle.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)a huge -- probably insurmountably huge -- head start locking down the key establishment endorsements and funding sources and (c) Sanders has the grassroots base locked in (which I'm sure is why his first meeting was with Elizabeth Warren).
I'm sure having the MSM drumbeat the "will he or won't he story" has got Biden reconsidering his initial decision (like it would any politician who run for president twice before), but the fundamentals behind his initial decision have not changed (except that Sanders has really solidified his position with the base).
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Last edited Tue Sep 8, 2015, 11:37 AM - Edit history (4)
election.
Vice President Biden:
Please don't be a Trump.
Sanders is an underdog because his views are more progressive than the ideological mid-point of the party.
For such an underdog to win the nomination, Sanders needs the consolidated support of the progressive wing of the party (and he's crushing this task) plus the consolidated support from other Democrats who may be choosing a candidate for reasons beyond ideology (such as those who dislike the idea of a "dynasty," those who don't like or trust Clinton personally or don't like her style, those who don't like a candidate who has peremptorily locked in so many establishment party endorsements so early in the nomination process before the grassroots have had time to consider the candidates, etc.).
You are unlikely to make inroads on Sanders' grassroots support from the progressive wing of the party who have chosen Sanders based on ideology (like me) because you have spent your whole very distinguished career at the ideological center of the party. You would, however, severely cut into Sanders' ability to gain the backing from segments of the party who will choose a candidate to support on grounds other than ideology (those voters who would prefer an alternative to Clinton but for reasons other than her ideology).
By cutting into Sanders ability to build support beyond the progressive wing of the party, your candidacy would reduce Sanders from an underdog on the rise to the head of movement that is much less likely to produce a nominee.
With that said, you take more votes from Clinton, but her pathway to the nomination has an almost unprecedented on-the-ground infrastructure, party establishment support, and fundraising network, and -- therefore -- is built with more room to survive the type of challenge you pose.
Although you cannot beat Clinton, your entry into the race would spur endless rounds of "Clinton campaign in crisis" MSM hand-wringing stories every time a fundraiser shifts to you or a politician withdraws from the Clinton campaign to support you (you're a well loved sitting VP so there will inevitably be a few defections but not nearly enough for you to win -- just enough to make Clinton look weaker).
Ultimately, you do not win because Sanders has unshakable support among progressives and Clinton has an insurmountable head start in terms of locking down centrist/party establishment support and fund-raising sources. In the process of losing the primary (for the third time), you kill off Sanders' underdog insurgency and weaken Clinton's candidacy in the general election (and this also changes Clinton's VP selection criteria and erodes Clinton's need to choose a progressive VP to unify the party if she barely beats Sanders in a Clinton-Sanders showdown).
You could turn into the Democratic version of Trump: a candidate who cannot win the nomination but whose candidacy weakens the party's nominee in the general election.
Please don't do that.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Romulox
(25,960 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)O'Malley if you prefer or even Lincoln Chafee or Jim Webb if you like a more conservative candidate than Clinton).
We ar enot lacking in choices, and ironically Biden offers the least "choice" because -- unlike Sanders, O'Malley, or even Chafee -- Biden's record n terms of the issues is virtually indistinguishable from Clinton's.
Romulox
(25,960 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)O'Malley is to the right of Clinton on some issues and to her left on other issues.
Webb is to Clinton's right but still a bed wetting commie compared to the Republican field.
These are alternatives. If the center/right were really desirous of alternatives to Clinton, Chafee or Webb or even O'Malley would probably be doing better in the polls.
Romulox
(25,960 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Romulox
(25,960 posts)So I don't understand your desire to convince me that he shouldn't run. Like I said, he could've ended this speculation weeks ago.