Endorsements are consistently predictive of who becomes the nominee....Bernie Sanders has zero

[Cali_Democrat]

From FiveThirtyEight.

They focus on actual statistics instead of MSM pundits and anonymous posters on message boards.

-------------------------------

<...>

Endorsements

We talk about the endorsement primary a lot at FiveThirtyEight. That’s because no other variable has been as consistently predictive of who becomes the nominee. Obama was trailing Clinton in endorsements in 2007, but he still had plenty of support from governors, House members and senators. Sanders hasn’t yet received a single endorsement from anyone in those groups.



Clinton, meanwhile, has 307 endorsement points on the FiveThirtyEight endorsement scoreboard. She has 99.7 percent of the endorsement points earned by Democratic candidates so far. She had 122 endorsement points as of Aug. 17, 2007, or 61 percent of the points then in play.

In other words, Clinton has more than twice the support within the party as she did at this point in the 2008 cycle.

<...>

The whole article:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-youre-no-barack-obama/

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

1. Bernie's got my endorsement and vote.

Hillary doesn't.

[cherokeeprogressive]

6. ^THIS^ n/t

[virtualobserver]

32. yes....but actual votes are probably the most predictive of who will win

[rock]

91. No, actual votes have no predictive power at all

They are determiners of who won. But the election is over before we count them. But they predict nothing.

[virtualobserver]

92. sure they do

they are determiners of who wins each of the earlier primary states.....but those early votes are predictive of who will win the nomination, which was the subject under discussion.

[rock]

101. I'll try to make this simple enough that you can understand it

As there are no votes yet cast, they do not predict a thing, which was the subject under discussion.

[virtualobserver]

107. my god, could you be more condescending?

Obviously, I was talking about votes when they ARE cast.

the "subject under discussion" was Superdelegates.
My point was that delegates chosen by actual voters
in Feb. and March are a better predictor of the nominee.

The decidedly non-democratic Superdelegate system
might have been a better predictor in the past,
but the times they are a changin'.

[rock]

111. I apologize

Sorry, I did misunderstand you and felt you were purposely being obdurate. I take full responsibility for the miscommunication.

[virtualobserver]

114. thank you, but no need - this place can be intense

and this election means a lot to all of us.

[tk2kewl]

26. "Votes" are consistently "prescriptive" of who becomes the nominee....

[sabrina 1]

59. Bernie's got my endorsement also!

Nate is working really hard for Hillary, isn't he? How many 'bernie won't win' posts from Nate have there been so far?

No one should forget that Nate started out posting on Daily Kos, forget his handle there now. Just a fyi!

[John Poet]

115. Know who else had a lot of endorsements?

Walter Mondale.


They may statistically reveal something about primaries, in the past at least, but not a whole hell of a lot about who can win a general election.

[yeoman6987]

69. That's nice but these are super delegates who add to the 4100 needed for nomination

She has over 8 percent of the points needed for nomination even before the first primary. That is pretty impressive.

[Gothmog]

90. Are you a member of congress or Senator? Do you work with Sanders on a day to day basis?

[whatchamacallit]

2. Correlation does not imply causation

[oasis]

3. Overwhelming confidence in Hillary's Chief Executive ability.

What other conclusion can one draw?

[Sancho]

4. Interesting article....

thanks!

[Jappleseed]

5. Hillary won in 2008?

Missed that. I sure picked a bad time to stop sniffing glue.

[JI7]

12. almost all dem senators had endorsed Obama

[Jappleseed]

54. How many republican?

All we are seeing here is Democratic insiders are supporting the Democrat. Bernie is not a Democrat, who in the hell do you think they would support?

[JI7]

63. he it's running in the dem primary and caucuses with dems in senate

[Jappleseed]

71. What is your point?

Of course he is. What a royal fuck up it would be if halve the Democratic senators would all of sudden stop supporting the Democrat. The party would not survive that and they know it.

[KMOD]

7. That really is quite surprising,

considering how many years he has served.

He hasn't even gotten an endorsement from a Vermont delegate?

[Cali_Democrat]

10. His fellow Senator from Vermont, Patrick Leahy, has already endorsed Hillary. nt

[MaggieD]

17. I'm not surprised

He spent 25 years dissing the party. Why should any of them endorse him? If by some miracle he does get elected I doubt they will even work with him.

[Capt. Obvious]

22. Just out of curiosity

When did this talking point come out? Was it two days ago or three?

TIA

[MaggieD]

24. What talking point is that?

[JackInGreen]

41. That would be 3 cap

But I'm sure that the usual suspects will dissemble until the topics so muddy the only thing you'll be sure of is your name.

[artislife]

94. *chortle nt

[Mnemosyne]

36. So in others words they will imitate the R's behavior toward President Obama. Ok, got it. nt

[MaggieD]

39. I believe they might

They just don't like him. That is why his endorsement count from his colleagues is a big fat zero. He does not play well with others.

[Fawke Em]

103. You have absolutely no idea who likes whom.

Your bitter diatribes against Sanders need to be called out. This isn't just your opinion - this is you making up shit you can't possibly prove.

[lunamagica]

19. Is pretty strange, isn't it? The people who havve worked with him, dont want him

hmmmm...

[Wilms]

30. Nah. That's not very strange at all.

[lunamagica]

67. people such as Al Franken, Barbara Boxer, Xavier Becerra (among others)

Have endorsed Hillary. They are solid and respectable, and I"m sure they are not afraid of her!

[jeff47]

52. The Clintons are famous for holding a grudge. Sanders is famous for not holding grudges.

Thus endorsing Clinton now is "free". Endorsing Sanders now means you may suffer for the next 4 to 8 years.

So politicians are either going to endorse Clinton or keep their mouth shut.

[aikoaiko]

65. This is exactly what I was thinking. These early endorsements are for position

within a HRC presidency.

[Cherry Creek Native]

8. Bernie has my full endorsement.

I may not be an important politician, but my entire family are 100% for Bernie. That's a total of four votes.

[MaggieD]

16. My four will cancel out your 4 then.

LOL! Seriously though my 23 year old son went to 2 Bernie rallies and ruled him out. Don't read too much into crowds.

[Cherry Creek Native]

34. Then your son is in the wrong.

He will change his mind a little later. But in the end, we all vote the eventual Democratic nominee - let's keep the snarks to a minimum. Thanks.

[MaggieD]

45. Nope - my son is the most informed voter

.... of his age group that you will ever meet. He takes his voting rights seriously and researches every candidate in every race he votes for. Even down to judges and city council memebers. I give him props for dragging his ass down to Bernie events. He really wanted to like him and support him. His conclusion was he simply can't.

[tiredtoo]

106. could you provide me with some specifics

as to why your son could not like/support Bernie?

[OilemFirchen]

70. Welcome to DU!

Your initial condescension level may be a record.

What a refreshing addition!

[GitRDun]

88. Now THAT'S funny! eom

[artislife]

95. Welcome for real

Lots of posters like to push new posters around. Don't worry about it.

&feature=youtu.be


There you go!

[zappaman]

9. It's just that he has no name recognition.

Also he's an outsider who is not a politician.
Once Senators and Reps hear about him, the endorsements will come.

[KMOD]

11. .

[MaggieD]

15. LOL!

Surely!

[lunamagica]

21. Keep 'em coming, Zappaman!

I love your posts!

[leftofcool]

38. Good one!

[MADem]

48. No, they know him, and they've already publicly endorsed Clinton. The horse has left the barn.

And those people are super-delegates. They have a vote at the convention, each and every one of them.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/238912-2016-hillary-endorsement-list


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

Sanders has been on the Hill for a quarter century. If superdelegates haven't heard of him by now, that's not saying anything positive about him. But they do who he is--he worked in the House for years, and he's now in the Senate.

They just aren't endorsing him,

[RobertEarl]

56. Why would they endorse Bernie?

He wants to knock them off their high horse.

They are not stupid, they know their gig is up when Bernie takes control.

Bernie will smash politics as we know it. The establishment hates the Bern!!

[MADem]

62. If the establishment "hates the Bern," then why did the Bern ask to be included under the

establishment's Big Tent?

How do you "smash politics" when you're a guest in the DNC's home? They're the ones who will make the call if the primaries are neck-and-neck.

I don't think the "establishment" (if by that, you mean the individuals that We, The People, sent to Congress) "hates" anyone. I think they just don't believe he's the best candidate for POTUS.

[RobertEarl]

66. See? There you go

A guest in the DNC's home? Really?

My gawd. You really are an establishment type. Actually saying any of us is a guest in the DNC home.

Guess what.... the DNC is supposed to be our place, but folks like you demand we are but a guest.

Thanks a lot. You have just exposed yourself as a wanna be elite like the rest of them.

It's our fucking house, dude!

[MADem]

72. He IS a guest in the DNC's home. If he were a member of the family, he'd have run as a

Democrat for the House AND the Senate--but he didn't. His agreement to caucus with us only means that he'll vote with the Democrats on procedural/housekeeping matters. He agreed to that in order to get a committee assignment. He can vote with the GOP all he'd like and Senator Reid can have nothing to say to him about it.

There's nothing wrong with that, but the fact of the matter is, he made that choice himself. So don't act like I'm "BAAAD" for noticing it.

The DNC "is" "our" place--and anyone who is a Democrat finds a home there. Those who choose to caucus with us are good friends, but they aren't Democrats. There IS a difference. Bernie Sanders and Angus King are great guys, but they aren't Democrats. When Joe Lieberman ran as a "Democratic INDEPENDENT" and caucused with us, he wasn't a Democrat, either.

And swearing at me doesn't make your faulty premise less faulty.

[RobertEarl]

74. Heh

You are the one claiming exclusion and that everyone is a guest in your house, or tent as you put it.

No wonder we democrats have such a hard time getting independents to vote with us. All they have to do is look at your exclusionary politics as you pretend to represent Democrats.

Please stop doing that... it makes all the rest of us look bad.

[MADem]

77. Maybe you should "please stop doing that" --you know, accusing people of "claiming exclusion"

when all that is happening here is that you're showing us you don't know the difference between a Democrat, and someone who caucuses with the Democrats.

It makes "you" look bad.

[RobertEarl]

79. Tent has a sign; Read it and weep

brooklynite (23,596 posts)
30. "Democrats welcome Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders "

DNC CHAIR STATEMENT ON BERNIE SANDERS’ 2016 ANNOUNCEMENT APRIL 30, 2015

Washington, DC – In response to Bernie Sanders’ announcement that he will run for president in 2016, DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz released the following statement:

“Democrats welcome Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as the second candidate to officially seek the Democratic Party’s nomination for President in 2016. Senator Sanders is well-recognized for his principled leadership and has consistently stood up for middle class families. Throughout his service in the U.S. House and Senate, Bernie Sanders has clearly demonstrated his commitment to the values we all share as members of the Democratic Party.
?
“The Democratic Party appreciates the contributions that Senator Sanders, Secretary Clinton, and other candidates will make to a healthy dialogue about the future of our party and our nation. There is a distinct contrast between Democrats who are on the side of middle and working class families and Republicans who are concerned with the very rich and wealthy corporations. Over the next year, the discussions we have during our respective nominating processes will help make that choice clear.”

[KittyWampus]

119. "He wants to knock them off their high horse". HE HAS TO WORK WITH THEM!

Now, as Senator. In the future if he, by a miracle got, nominated/elected POTUS.

[Number23]

96. And 'cause the Democrats are weinees!! No worse -- CORPORATISTS beholden to TPTB

and that's why it was important that Sanders run as a Democrat, in order to vanquish them all. Or something....

[ibegurpard]

13. OK

[MaggieD]

14. I just spoke with my congressperson yesterday

She is endorsing HRC and thinks the vast majority of super delegates will do the same.

[Joe the Revelator]

109. Wanna see the party implode? Let super delegates go against the will of the people....

again, that was a great strategy in 08.

[whatchamacallit]

18. I wonder how much of this is really a preference for Hillary

And how much is fear of rocking the boat and being loath to bite the party establishment hand that feeds you...

[lunamagica]

25. Fear? why? If Sanders is going to win -and with a revolution, no less-

What is there to fear?

[MaggieD]

27. People in congress like Hillary

She has worked tirelessly for the party for decades.

[Dawgs]

43. Yeah, but when is she going to start working for the American people? n/t

[MaggieD]

47. 30 years ago up to the present

You realize she lobbied and help pass SCHIP as First Lady, right? She did more for the American people before Bernie even got elected to congress (and then proceeded to accomplish basically nothing over 25 years).

[jeff47]

53. Wait...so her time as first lady counts now?

Why, it was just yesterday that you said her time as first lady didn't count.

[MaggieD]

60. Not what I said

I said she is not responsible for Bill's policies.

[jeff47]

73. You mean policies like SCHIP?

So...she is not responsible for SCHIP then. Why'd you cite it above?

Or if she is responsible for SCHIP, she's also responsible for everything else she lobbied for as First Lady. Including policies you say she is not responsible for in other threads.

[MADem]

75. She did a few things on the national stage as FLOTUS. Why wouldn't it count?

Here--is this cookie baking, to you? This speech wasn't important on a national/international level?

[jeff47]

84. I'm not saying it shouldn't count. The other poster is.

I think it's mostly up to Clinton to decide when to start her resume. And she counts her time as First Lady.

MaggieD is counting her time as First Lady at this moment. In other threads on other subjects, MaggieD says Clinton's time as First Lady does not count.

[MADem]

86. Why even argue the point? Not all useful experience is "paid."

She did more to break through the minds of people that there was a better way to "do" health care than any other person in the USA during the nineties. She raised the issue of health care for all. She was beaten to a pulp by the GOP, but damn, she tried. And she raised awareness, which is always the first step. No one paid her a dime to do it, either.

People have short memories.

[jeff47]

87. Because the person I'm arguing the point with switches position based on the subject.

Their position is:

If it makes Hillary Clinton look bad, then she was just first lady and it was all Bill Clinton's fault.

If it makes Hillary Clinton look good, then she lobbied for it and she was intimately involved and it totally counts.

My position is Hillary Clinton was behind the "two for the price of one" concept during Bill Clinton's presidency, so she gets "credit" for many things during his Presidency. Both good and bad.

So Hillary Clinton helped push forward on healthcare reform. Hillary Clinton also helped to shred the safety net.

[MADem]

97. Maybe the solution is to stick with what Hillary actually did, and what she actually said.

She did have a portfolio as First Lady, but it was limited. She wasn't signing legislation, and to morph her views into those of her husband isn't really fair to her. Just stick with what is known to belong to HER--and her advocacy for women and children, for example, that does belong to her--and you're being fair. If you blame her for her husband's policies or behavior, you've gone too far afield. One could "insinuate" that because Sanders' wife almost destroyed the college where she last worked, putting them in a dire financial situation, that this transfers to her husband, and he would be a lousy person to try to lay out an agenda of budget priorities for the nation. But would that be fair? I don't think so. A person is NOT their spouse. They may get along, they may have some things in common, but they aren't a borg.


http://vtdigger.org/2014/12/21/burlington-college-fight-survival/

[jeff47]

99. That's more-or-less what I've been saying.

If you blame her for her husband's policies or behavior, you've gone too far afield.

When she lobbies for those policies, and writes a book to back those policies, they are hers too.

[Dawgs]

58. Sorry. I mistook you for someone else. n/t

[AppalachianLeftist]

20. I don't blame them, considering the current front runner keeps a list of political enemies.

Hedging their bets is more about political survival than their faith in Clinton as a leader.

[KMOD]

28. Yeah, look what she did to Vince Foster.

[AppalachianLeftist]

37. Why are you spewing right-wing conspiracy theories? This is to what I'm referring:

As one of the last orders of business for a losing campaign, they recorded in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet the names and deeds of members of Congress. They carefully noted who had endorsed Hillary, who had backed Obama, and who had stayed on the sidelines—standard operating procedure for any high-end political organization. But the data went into much more nuanced detail. “We wanted to have a record of who endorsed us and who didn’t,” a member of Hillary’s campaign team said, “and of those who endorsed us, who went the extra mile and who was just kind of there. And of those who didn’t endorse us, those who understandably didn’t endorse us because they are [Congressional Black Caucus] members or Illinois members. And then, of course, those who endorsed him but really should have been with her … that burned her.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/01/hillary-clinton-hit-list-102067.html#ixzz3jI9qVoYW

[KMOD]

42. Hillary's Hit List, lol

Welcome to DU.

[elleng]

35. Exactly, and those who don't recognize this are foolish.

I'm pleased that Martin O'Malley has been endorsed by these 'brave' Democrats.

U.S. Representatives

Eric Swalwell, U.S. Representative from California[310]
Berkley Bedell, former U.S. Representative from Iowa[311]

National political figures

Gary Hart, United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland, former U.S. Senator from Colorado (1975-1987), candidate for the Democratic nomination for president in 1984 and 1988[312]

State legislators

Peter Burling, former New Hampshire State Senator[313]

I also note that Senator Sanders HAS been endorsed by a number of well-known figures, so the op and 538 are incorrect. 'Spinning,' I'd call it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

[KMOD]

44. It's not spinning.

It represents actual delegate endorsements.

And yes, I am aware that Bernie Sanders as been endorsed by well-known figures, so has HRC. But this is about Democratic delegates endorsements.

[MADem]

49. "Figures" are not "super delegates." nt

[Wilms]

23. Strange.

The more endorsements she gets, the lower her poll numbers are.

But if only politicians vote, she's got it locked up.



New Hampshire

[MaggieD]

29. He can win in 95% white states

No doubt. But that doesn't describe too many states.

[d_r]

68. this stuff

is getting so lame.

[MaggieD]

76. Do you think a NH POLL is indicative of the country?

I sure don't.

[KMOD]

31. Bernie

For President of New Hampshire.

[bunnies]

120. Works for me!

[woodsprite]

33. According to CNN (dated 8/10) he has National Nurses United

National Nurses United -- a 185,000-person union and the largest group of nurses in the country.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/10/politics/bernie-sanders-nurses-endorsement-2016/

[jkbRN]

46. Yay for nurses!

Love it!! Whoop woop

[NRaleighLiberal]

50. as the hubby of a former nurse, good for you - nurses are among the true heroes of

our society, along with teachers. Under-appreciated, underpaid, and incredibly relevant!



oh - how impolite of me! Welcome to DU!

[leftofcool]

108. Any one of them a super delegate?

[Purveyor]

40. They need to do another chart on this: Federal indictments are consistently predictive of who

becomes the nominee...

I'm seriously starting to think she will be indicted before the first primary votes are cast.

[progressoid]

51. Sooo...based on that "logic" she should have been the nominee in 08 as well.

Oh wait, that's what the link says too:

Endorsements aren’t a foolproof predictor. In 2008 , more Democrats initially endorsed Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama (although Obama had some support).

[sufrommich]

64. A this point in the 2008 primary Clinton only had 45% of

endorsements,the rest going to Obama and Edwards.Obama was also very close to her in fundraising dollars by both big and small donors by August 2007 and surpassed her by 2008.

[bunnies]

55. Fuck the establishment bullshit.

Naturally the status-quo doesnt want him. Thats exactly why *we* do!

[napi21]

57. Historically, you're right, but how much in this election season has beenthe same as

it was historically? Look at the things Trump has said. Those in the know predicted "Trump's gone too far this time. His poll #'s will fall for sure!" They said those same words after each "gaff", and guess what? Trump is still leading the crowd.

[hack89]

81. There is no reason to believe that Bernie is a historic and paradigm changing candidate

he is just the latest in a long line of flash in the pan populists. Every election has someone like him, especially on DU. Remember president Kucinich?

[Roy Ellefson]

98. Sanders is no Kucinich

it is foolish to compare Sanders to Kucinich

[napi21]

100. Not even close! Allbeit I was just a new bay when Roosevelt was Prez,

from all the clips I've seen of him, and the programs enacted under is reign, Bernie reminds me more of him. My biggest fear for Bernie is that he'll run out of money. I subscribed to sending him $25/mo. but I can't afford much more than that. Even if we ALL did that, we can't match the Koch's etc.

[hack89]

112. DU is not the real world

President Kucinich taught us that.

[Alittleliberal]

105. Citizens United was one of those moments by which history pivots.

Bernie's campaign, OWS and BLM are all parts of the push back. If that's not historic idk what is.

[hack89]

113. Wishful thinking is not history. Nt

[ruffburr]

61. What do you expect? -

The politicians on both sides do not want their Gravy Train of payoffs and perks to end, They would have to actually do their jobs instead of just being Koch Suckers, 'Give Em Hell Bernie' We are with YOU!!!

[Go Vols]

78. exactly

[CanadaexPat]

80. The relentless search for data in the absence of data.

It's an existential imperative for some.

[HFRN]

82. server-gate nt

[last1standing]

83. Skin color was a pretty solid indicator of who would be elected president until 2008.

Statistics are very good, until they're not.

I still think Hillary will win the primary, although I'm finally having a few doubts. I definitely do no think she will win the general election. Regardless of how a majority of Democrats feel about her, the more the general public sees her, the less they like or trust her.

[Cherry Creek Native]

85. This is what it means to me

The endorsements to hillary are endorsing the status quo. Bernie getting none means the status quo earns nothing. It means it identifies who betrayed the principles of the Democratic Party by staying Third Way.

[Gothmog]

89. Nate Silver knows what he is talking about

[mmonk]

93. The fight for change is a great undertaking.

Those that benefit currently in the system will not take a risk,

[6chars]

102. Ratio has gone from 2.5 to #DIV/0!

whatever that means.

[valerief]

104. Remember back when exit polls told us who the elected candidate was?

That was before electronic voting.

[SalviaBlue]

110. That's so quaint...

... so yesterday.



Yes I do.

[Scuba]

116. Please remind me what percent of Americans approve of Congress.

[Vinca]

117. So look at those 2008 lines again and tell me who's in the White House.

[marmar]

118. The paradigm has shifted......

...... people are SICK of the establishment. Dems (and Repugs) ignore this at their own peril.