With all the "surging" and "plunging", whoddathunk Hillary is still crushing all her rivals

[DanTex]

by enormous margins? Not only does she lead Bernie by 34 and 45 in the latest primary polls, but the latest favorability poll has Hillary with much higher favorables among Dems, even among liberal Dems. And, remarkably, she has lower unfavorables (even among liberal Dems), despite the fact that far fewer Dems have even formed an opinion about Bernie than Hillary.

But it's all about the surge! In the last week, Bernie has "surged" from 24% all the way "up" to between 14% and 17%. At this rate, the floor's the limit!

[virtualobserver]

1. back to reality

each poll shows a trend

Bernie has been rising in each poll generated by the same group....which shows his upward trend

Hillary is dropping in polls generated by the same group.....showing her downward trend

[LordGlenconner]

19. And yet he' still in the teens in almost all of them

And has been for weeks.

When exactly does the "surge" begin, anyway?

[virtualobserver]

21. in every series of polls by individual pollsters that I've seen, he has been rising about....

5 points per month.

That is a steady surge.

[leveymg]

2. Other polls show Hillary with huge and growing negatives

Guess it depends upon what polls you want to cite:

http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-poll-favorability-2015-7#ixzz3g3iJCena

Just 39% of all Americans have a favorable view of Clinton, compared to nearly half who say they have a negative opinion of her. That's an eight-point increase in her unfavorable rating from an AP-GfK poll conducted at the end of April.

The drop in Clinton's numbers extends into the Democratic Party. Seven in 10 Democrats gave Clinton positive marks, an 11-point drop from the April survey. Nearly one-quarter of Democrats now say they see Clinton in an unfavorable light.

"I used to like her, but I don't trust her," said Donald Walters of Louisville, Kentucky. "Ever since she's announced her candidacy for the presidency I just haven't liked the way she's handled things. She doesn't answer questions directly."

and

http://www.gallup.com/poll/183158/hillary-clinton-unfavorable-score-ticks.aspx

May 1, 2015

PRINCETON, N.J. -- Hillary Clinton's favorable rating from the American people has been steady -- near 50% -- all spring, but her unfavorable rating has inched higher and is now 46%, up from 39% in March. At the same time, the percentage of Americans with no impression of the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state has gone down.

[JaneyVee]

3. AP and Gallup were ranked dead last in polling accuracy:

http://legacy.fordham.edu/campus_resources/enewsroom/topstories_2590.asp

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. A sinking ship will search for any port in a storm....

eom

[leveymg]

18. Strong dislike of Hillary has been recorded by many polls for a long time

This from the 2008 cycle. Not much has changed in the numbers or the problem. http://inthesetimes.com/article/3129/why_women_hate_hillary

Of course, a lot of people seem to hate Hillary. According to some polls, anywhere from 39 to 50 percent of respondents claim they’d vote against her no matter what; her “negatives” continue to be high. Many of these are Republicans and men. But many are not. According to a Harris poll in March, 52 percent of married women said they would not vote for her. Nearly half of adults say they dislike her personality and her politics. Unlike her husband, people seem to find her cold and don’t see her connecting with everyday people, and this is especially true for married women. Ironically, it is Gen Xers, those between 31 and 42, who give her the most support.

So what gives? For people like my friends and me, her hawkish position on Iraq and her insistence that the U.S. maintain a military presence there even after the troops are withdrawn have been very disappointing. But it’s more than any specific position. Women don’t trust Hillary. They see her as an opportunist; many feel betrayed by her. Why?

Also, take a look at my post below for more on her long-term measured negatives.

[DanTex]

4. I was talking about polls of Dems. I agree with you, the primary is a foregone conclusion,

and what really matters is how she's doing against the GOP (leading them all), but this is after all the GD : Primaries forum, so I figured I'd post the polls of people who will be voting in the primaries.

[leveymg]

17. In '08 her negatives rose, as well, until she was no longer the candidate.

High negatives are part of who Hillary is; most Americans don't like her (for a variety of reasons), and haven't for a long time. No sense in denying it, and that might be a perilous thing for her supporters to ignore, given that the latent power of her extraordinary negatives have never been tested in a national general election.

In Feb 2008, then the trailing candidate, Barack Obama, observed: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2008/feb/11/barack-obama/clintons-negatives-are-higher-than-obamas-/

"I think Sen. Clinton starts off with 47 percent of the country against her. That's a hard place to start if you want to win the election," he said.

Pollsters regularly ask voters whether they rate candidates positively or negatively. Indeed, Clinton's negatives are consistently higher than Obama's, but different polls show her at different levels.

We looked at the times the USA Today /Gallup Poll asked voters whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, going back to January 2007. Her negative percentage fluctuated between 40 and 52, but the average of 21 polls came out to 47.

ABC News and the Washington Post have asked the question at least four times since January 2007. Her unfavorable ratings on that poll came in between 48 and 40, with an average of 44.5. CNN polled four times and found unfavorables between 39 and 44, with an average of 41.5.

Obama's unfavorable ratings tend to be well under 40 percent. In several polls, his unfavorable ratings are in the 20s.

Not every poll rates her unfavorables consistently as high as 47 percent, and poll numbers are always a little bit squishy. But, the USA Today /Gallup Poll has polled often on Clinton's unfavorables, and the average of 21 polls puts her negatives at 47 percent. We find that to be about as solid a poll figure as you can have, so we find Obama's statement True.

[Avalux]

5. Why the sarcasm?

I don't get what you think it will accomplish. Seriously, grow up.

[DanTex]

6. That's my sense of humor. I like it the way it is.

[NCTraveler]

15. Said poster....

Said poster attempts to derail Clinton threads by ignoring the larger point and angling for a different direction. There is a history. Threadjacking.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251444192#post8

[boston bean]

20. I get your humor and I'm LMAO! So, at least for me, keep you as you are! nt

[cherokeeprogressive]

9. This one mistakes sarcasm for wit. n/t

[enlightenment]

10. Apparently.

I've been wondering why his/her posts consistently take the low road.

[Avalux]

13. Yep. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. As if Dan is the only poster to resort to sarcasm here?

Let's use one standard for everybody.

[Doctor_J]

7. This may have something to do with it

http://www.democraticunderground.com/128025475

With big media and big money all on her side, I'm not sure why the authoritarian sector of du is so grouchy and paranoid.

[DanTex]

8. Funny you think the media is on her side.

I was just reading from Hillary bashers that the media hates her and that's a good reason to vote Bernie, because it makes him more electable. Consistency, the hobgoblin of feeble minds, is it not?

[Sancho]

14. Here's another poll summary and trend line.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

Hillary pretty steady at 60%. Bernie at 15%. Biden at 12%.

[Dawgs]

16. Well, people are pretty stupid. n/t

[JaneyVee]

22. What an intelligent comment.