Monmouth Poll: Hillary 51, Bernie 17, Joe 13.

[DanTex]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-22377

[JaneyVee]

1. I would like to see these polls with only announced candidates.

Joe hasn't even announced and he's in a statistical tie with Bernie? Seems fishy. And it would give a clearer look into the actual numbers.

[MoonRiver]

2. I don't understand it either.

All it does is skew results for the announced candidates. Maybe that's the point.

[JaneyVee]

3. Or at least do 2 separate polls for some perspective.

[MoonRiver]

6. Yes, something that reflects reality.

Is that too much to ask?

[DanTex]

5. Me too. From what I've seen, most of Joe's support usually goes to Hillary.

[demwing]

22. Not always

In a recent poll, Bernie saw greater gains from Biden's absence than Clinton did

My post on that thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=436172

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. That was in a response to me...

I will post without comment the Real Clear Politics aggregate polling:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls

and Huffington Post aggregate polling:



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


and let others sort it out

[oasis]

4. Hill and Joe benefit from name recognition. you have to figure

Hill would get the lion's share of Joe's votes if he was not included in this poll.

[onehandle]

7. Yep.

Indeed.

[thesquanderer]

13. Not necessarily

I would think that a lot of Biden's support comes from people who are specifically looking for an alternative to Hillary. That much of his support would more likely go to someone else if he were not included in the poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Here are a list of recent polls, sans Biden, and with Biden.

When Biden isn't included Clinton's numbers go up:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html#polls

[HooptieWagon]

8. OP title is deliberately misleading.

With Biden NOT included, Hillary has 51% (down 6% from last months poll), and Bernie has 17% (up 5 % from last months poll). When Biden is included, he polled 13%, mostly at Hillarys expense (stated by the pollsters).

[JaneyVee]

11. Your title is misleading:

1) 2016 National Democratic Primary

Joe Biden (D)13%

Lincoln Chafee (D)0%

Hillary Clinton (D)51%

No One2%

Martin O'Malley (D)1%

Bernie Sanders (D)17%

Jim Webb (D)1%

Other0%

Undecided15%

Biden is very much included in that poll.

[DanTex]

15. Stick to the Kissinger pictures. Reading poll results isn't your forte.

[HooptieWagon]

32. Certainly!

[img][/img]
Hillary has stated her admiration for, and friendship with, Henry Kissinger. Since you appear to be rather ignorant of history, Kissinger made Dick Cheney look like a pussy cat. Most notable of the terror he inflicted on the world was the brutal coup in Chile during 1973, that installed the right wing dictator Pinochet. Thousands were rounded up and executed, including famous scholar/activist/ actor/boxer/folk-musician Victor Jara, who was tortured for days before being killed. A friend of mine was a student of Jara's, he barely managed to escape across the Andes to Brazil. The whole purpose of the coup was to take down a popularly elected leftist government with a booming economy. That was a slap in the face to the neo-cons, who wanted to use Chile as a test-bed for their neo-liberal economic policies. That was an abject failure. This is who Hillary admires.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. I like this photo as well

[oasis]

50. Whoop! There it is!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. Let's be positive

[DCBob]

9. Good numbers for Hillary.

And as others have mentioned if Biden not included most of his would go to Hillary.

[NCTraveler]

10. Is good old Joe about to be second without even entering?

That really puts Hillary's frontrunner status and Sanders surge in perspective.

[elleng]

12. 'National' polls notoriously useless this far out,

as stated by Rachel last night; LAST time, at this point national polls had hrc way ahead of BO!

[leftynyc]

20. No - at this point

Clinton was only 15 points ahead of (then) Sen Obama (from the Washington post July 23, 2007):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/22/AR2007072201135.html

Overall, 45 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents support Clinton to be the party's nominee, with Obama second at 30 percent. Edwards, whose hopes for winning depend heavily on a victory in the Iowa caucuses in January, is at 12 percent. Clinton's margin over Obama has been generally steady since February, just after the two candidates launched their presidential bids.

[ram2008]

21. And 4 months later, she was 30 points ahead of O

Following last Tuesday’s Democratic debate, Hillary Clinton
has a commanding, though diminished, lead nationwide against her rivals for the Democratic nomination. Overall, 48% of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents nationwide support Senator Hillary Clinton for the nomination. Her closest primary opponent is Senator Barack Obama who receives 17% followed by John Edwards with 10%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Marist071106.pdf

Things change.

[leftynyc]

23. I never said they didn't change

The poster said AT THIS POINT. I posted a poll that was only 8 days away from EXACTLY THIS POINT. Take it up with the person who can't look at dates properly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Actually she was only nine points ahead of PBO on 7/15/07

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls

[leftynyc]

27. Even closer

Wake me up when Bernie is within 25% of her.

[London Lover Man]

14. DOWN ANOTHER 6 points from her

last polling from Monmouth. Can the Clinton supporters stanch the massive bleeding before the primaries are to begin? Let's wait and see, kids....

[retrowire]

16. unless the poll reaches out to everyone

then how does it reflect the majority opinion. where do these polls come from anyway? who answers in them?

[DanTex]

17. True. The polls come from Hillary HQ and they only poll people with Hillary signs on their lawns.

[retrowire]

18. sarcasm!

thanks for being helpful.

now, let's be mature, what about a real answer?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. They are random samples designed to represent the entire universe of voters.

Does that help, sir or madame?

[retrowire]

29. sir, thank you for being considerate

random samples from where?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. I will do my best to explain

After employing the proper controls the pollster contacts people to find out how they will vote. Of course there isn't a mechanism to call hundreds of millions of people but you don't have to because once you reach a certain amount of people it becomes redundant.

Here's an exercise you can do at home. If you flip a coin ten times you might get eight heads and two tails...Flip that coin one thousand times I assure you that you are going to get very close to five hundred heads and five hundred tails...

Think about a blood test...The nurse takes a sample of it. He or she doesn't take all of it.

[retrowire]

38. alright

no need to explain the sampling part, I'm a test technician that's my job.

but where do the samples come from? they do phone banking? how do they choose whom they ask?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. Some pollsters work from a list of registered voters.

Some pollsters cast a wider net and use an automated dialer...


They also ask folks their race, income, region, age, income, et cetera to make sure their respondents are representative of all Americans.

[retrowire]

45. ram2008 from post 42

totally cleared things up. sounds fair to me! thanks for the help to those of you that weren't caught up with emotion!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. I was trying to explain it in my own words.

[retrowire]

47. You helped greatly as well!

I was more so referring to dantex regarding the emotion statement. thank you as well.

[leftynyc]

25. You're questioning

the entire basis of polling. Is that what you meant to do? Do you suspect the polls of being skewed?

[retrowire]

30. well yeah

I've never seen any of these polls ask me my opinion. how many other people are left out of these? how many people take them? who takes them? where are they taken?

[leftynyc]

31. Are you aware that

the general history of polling is very, very accurate? Your post screams "How can Obama be President, I don't know anyone who voted for him". Do you realize how foolish that is?

[retrowire]

33. no you misinterpret me.

my post rather screams, who votes in these polls?

[leftynyc]

34. People don't "vote"

in polls. They answer them. I've been polled several times by 3 different organizations.

[retrowire]

36. oh so they email you or something?

[ram2008]

37. They generally call you

It's a very accurate method of getting the pulse of the electorate.

[retrowire]

40. how do they choose who they call?

[ram2008]

42. Randomly

"All polls are based on the idea of a random sample. Two methods are used to get the sample. The first is called RDD (Random Digit Dialing) in which the pollster carefully chooses an area code and prefix (together, the first six digits of a telephone number) and then picks the next four digits at random. Due to the way the telephone system is organized, people with the same area code and next three digits generally live close together, although this property is changing. This method generates a good random sample since it hits all in the selected area with equal probability, including unlisted numbers. Unfortunately, it also hits business phones, fax machines, and modems. The second method takes telephone numbers from a telephone book or list and uses them, or sometimes randomizes the final digit to hit unlisted numbers."

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2015/Info/polling-faq.html#whocall

[retrowire]

44. Thank you!

Alright, then I agree the polling is fair! geez I wish I didn't have to deal with sarcasm here first.

thanks again!

[leftynyc]

39. No - they've called

me. Gallup, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac.

[retrowire]

41. facepalm*

very funny. I meant they call you as in "the people"

how do they decide which people?

[leftynyc]

52. I'm not a statistician

but I suspect they make a bunch of random calls - if it's local they probably use zip codes or certain exchanges, only a fraction of those actually even answer their phones, then they go from there.

[mainstreetonce]

49. Go Joe

There's still time to jump in