2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumVirginia CPP( B rated) poll shows Trump gaining 15 % in one month. Leading Hillary by + 3.
Volatile numbers indeed, b rated pollster..cant explain the huge shift for Trump, so it looks like an outlier.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793889001757347841
Hampton-University/CPP Poll:
Trump 44 (+3)
Clinton 41
A 15 point shift toward Trump in a month
http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/Hampton-University%27s-CPP-Latest-Poll-Shows-VA-Voter-Shift-from-Clinton-to-Trump-Post-Email-Investigation
Winthrop has Clinton 44, Trump 39. that is Clinton +5, but thats before the FBI stunt..
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804
beaglelover
(3,514 posts)StevieM
(10,500 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Egnever
(21,506 posts)This race has been over since before the primaries started.
Rex
(65,616 posts)He would have to pick up double the number of current voters plus some.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)beaglelover
(3,514 posts)vadermike
(1,417 posts)If accurate We might be trouble.. But I thought we were really good in VA? This plus the troubling NH poll coming tmmrw sickens me I hope HRC campaign can contain the damage Wtf?
Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Lots of polls coming out and we're fine. Do you REALLY believe we lost like 15 points in one month and no other poll shows it?
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)And not the numberous other polls that contradict them?
Sorry, but that's ridiculous.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Thrill
(19,178 posts)StevieM
(10,500 posts)That goes double for Jason Chaffetz.
20895DEM
(100 posts)I live in MD but work in VA. Most of the population is in NoVA. It is become increasingly blue since 2008. No way Trump will win here. He stands a better chance in PA than VA this year.
No rust belt issues resonate here.
obamanut2012
(26,205 posts)Most of the population, all very blue.
reasonabletexan
(40 posts)Look up the early vote numbers out of Virginia. Then take a chill pill.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Demsrule86
(68,917 posts)Who will win Virginia?
Chance of winning Virginias 13 electoral votes
FiveThirtyEight
Hillary Clinton
82.6%
Donald Trump
17.3%
FiveThirtyEight
Projected vote share over time
factfinder_77
(841 posts)PA thightened a bit but still a solid 4-5 point lead in multiple polls.
Wisconsin for Trump ain't happening, HRC +6 in the gold standard poll for that state.
Good poll numbers in Florida and North Carolina, both with small leads.
Not so good numbers in Ohio and Arizona (both about -5), they might slip away
And a terrible poll out of Nevada (-7), but that is most likely a massive outlier with several red flags (HRC losing Clark County, winning women only by 1 point)
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)I wonder why you never post favorable polls, Mr. Concern?
obamanut2012
(26,205 posts)TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)toward Trump while that was going on?? That doesn't make sense.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)But don't worry I 'm riled up about other shit. Hilllary's live youtube rally stream just filled with trolls...disgusting. Thank goodness I have a touch of deplorable in me so I was able to beat them back LOL
regnaD kciN
(26,046 posts)that show wild swings. I doubt there were any serious polls of Virginia that showed HRC up 12, even at her highest. That looked like an outlier then, and still looks like an outlier now.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Here are all of the latest polls in Virginia:
Emerson 10/28-10/30 Clinton 49 Trump 45 Clinton +4 Clinton +5
Remington Research 10/30-10/30 Clinton 47 Trump 43 Clinton +4 Clinton +5
Washington Post 10/27-10/30 Clinton 48 Trump 42 Clinton +6 Clinton +5
Winthrop 10/23-10/30 Clinton 44 Trump 39 Clinton +5 Clinton +3
Hampton University Oct. 26-30 Clinton 41% Trump 44% Trump + 3 Trump +2
The first result shown (such as Clinton +4 for the first poll) is the actual result of the poll while the second in bold is the result corrected for bias by Nate Silver. The order in which they are listed indicates the weight given to each of the polls as assigned by Silver so of the five he considers the Winthrop poll the least accurate.
I think that if you are not a troll it is highly coincidental that you only reported on the poll which happens to provide the worst results and the one which is probably an outlier.
Oh by the way, Silver currently is giving Hillary an 82.6% chance of winning Virginia - I'll take those odds every day Mr. factfinder.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)and then many of the usual suspects come in to reinforce it.
napkinz
(17,199 posts)it's so obvious
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)If he is a troll, and now don't think that he is, he has covered his track well with occasional positive posts.
napkinz
(17,199 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)obamanut2012
(26,205 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)There will be outliers. Relax. We're fine.
Demsrule86
(68,917 posts)Concerned or trolls?
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)that showed a 6 or 7 point gain in VA and everyone jumped down my throat. It was right after Trump left Virginia Beach. Hilllary has not been here at all. I haven't heard about Kaine being here either. If we lose VA with Kaine on the ticket she is in trouble. Hope northern VA turns out big because we have a bunch of nuts down here.
Demsrule86
(68,917 posts)every state. We are fine in Virgina.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)The thought makes me ill.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)vadermike
(1,417 posts)Can't be like Romney Time to admit trump has a decent but smaller chance to win this thing I hate it It sux but it is what it is I know our base is fired up which should help us tho
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Can I have the twitter link where Trump will be leading a NH poll tomorrow?
Thank you in advance.
vadermike
(1,417 posts)The poster deleted the original OP for some reason
Demsrule86
(68,917 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Demsrule86
(68,917 posts)538 gives her above an 80% chance to win Virginia...the op is a concerned sort.
Egnever
(21,506 posts)And quickly realize it is not bloody likely.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)obamanut2012
(26,205 posts)Statistical
(19,264 posts)There are dozens of A+, A, and A- rated polling companies. B is essentially failing.
Norbert
(6,046 posts)Virginia 48% 42% Oct 27 Oct 30 George Mason U.
Virginia 49% 45% Oct 28 Oct 30 Emerson Coll.
This an out-liar. Nothing else to see here.
redwitch
(14,956 posts)Lots of polls out there but you might want to step away from them.
I guess people don't ever look at the aggregate. He has no chance in hell. None.
Amishman
(5,559 posts)We are fine in VA. And in PA. And in CO.
Hillary will be president, end of story.
obamanut2012
(26,205 posts)Rex
(65,616 posts)Seriously, this must be what the end stages of denial looks like.
obamanut2012
(26,205 posts)hahhahahhahahha
Rex
(65,616 posts)Granted they have nothing to do with her but...OH LOOK ACROSS THE STREET I SEE ELVIS!
Rex
(65,616 posts)And those are the facts.