FiveThirtyEight: Clinton Voters Aren’t Just Voting Against Trump

[highplainsdem]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-voters-arent-just-voting-against-trump/?ex_cid=story-twitter

Sen. Mitch McConnell and many political pundits claim that voters will have to choose a “lesser of two evils” in this election. That cliché is based on how high Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s unfavorable ratings are compared to previous candidates. But favorable ratings don’t always tell us everything, and there are strong signs that voters don’t consider Clinton to be less tolerable than past candidates. (Trump on the other hand….)

A simpler method for determining positive or negative support is to ask people whether their vote is affirmatively for one candidate or in protest against the other. The latest ABC News survey reveals that, in fact, Clinton’s voters feel about as positively about their candidate as any candidate’s supporters have felt about their own preferred candidate since 1980. Trump voters are less enthusiastic about him: Since 1980, no group of supporters have been less affirmative in their support for their candidate.

Right now, 56 percent of Clinton voters say they are mainly for her compared to just 42 percent of the same voters who say they are voting against Trump. This 56 percent is the highest it’s been all year in the ABC News poll, and it’s been steadily climbing for Clinton since July. In the same survey, only 41 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting for him, while 54 percent say they are mostly voting against Clinton. Those numbers are about the same as they’ve been all year.

-snip-

For Clinton, having a majority of supporters who are voting affirmatively for her could be important both on Nov. 8 and afterward, assuming she becomes president. Although the relationship is far from perfect, in eight of the nine elections since 1980, the candidate whose backers were more likely to say they were casting an affirmative vote ultimately won. That’s good news for Hillary Clinton.

[semby2]

1. Ignored

Hillary Clinton supporters have been completely ignored by the press.

[underpants]

2. Really she has too

That talk about her but hardly show any speeches.

When she has actually been in the air her numbers continually spike upwards. The convention and after each of the debates. Every time her poll numbers shoot up.

[bettyellen]

8. I read a while back when they counted reporting on her policies- 2::1 it was the opponent's version

Of what they said her policies were, rather than her own words. It's amazing how they silence women and then claim were not speaking.

[Lucinda]

3. My vote has always been FOR her, not against anyone else. But it is doing double duty

since Trump is her opponent.

[Renew Deal]

4. "41 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting for him" and yet republicans try to disown him

He's the nominee because republicans agree with him.

[vi5]

5. I was voting against Trump...

..as the campaign has gone on I am now voting FOR her. I'm happy that I'm now able to make that distinction.

I was skeptical as to how good a campaign she would run, as I've not been a fan of her staff and campaign folks in the past, even when she was running for Senator in NY.

But for the most part they've hit every right note in the general election and they've done a great job of humanizing her in a way that previous campaigns I think really fumbled at trying to do.

[Hortensis]

6. Reality always showed the "no one wants her" meme

had to be wrong. All along, so many obviously have, and have said so in many ways.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I've made this point on several sites recently, including here

Hate is not an attractant. Republicans seemingly have no clue. Their theme is, "I hate her. Come join me."

Good luck with that.

When I started betting politics in 1996 I studied variables from any sources I could find. This "vote for" and "vote against" angle was buried in many books and magazine articles. I found it immensely helpful. I'm not surprised that an odds-oriented site like 538 is highlighting it now, while the mainstream outlets are mostly clueless.

However, I give MSNBC a nod. They don't mention the angle often enough but they did devote a partial segment a couple of weeks ago. That polling revealed that only 37% of Trump voters were "for" him as opposed to against Hillary. As soon as I saw that 37% I posted on the political forum of a Miami Dolphins site that Trump had no chance of a comeback.

This 41% "for" Trump is closer to Pew's number of about a month ago, when they ran a similar article, one that also emphasized that the majority of Hillary's voters were "for" her, contrary to conventional wisdom.

I favored Hillary during the 2008 primaries. However, when I saw Obama's surreal "for" number, something like 68%, I more or less shut up and conceded at that point.

Rush Limbaugh deserves immense credit. Democrats would not be winning the presidential popular vote so dependably and by considerable margin if he hadn't taught the GOP to prioritize hate. Other surrogates picked it up. I hope they keep it up. It may make for ugly political seasons but it regulates their party. In Reagan they happened to stumble upon someone they loved, simultaneous with dislike for Carter. To this day they haven't figured out what happened there.