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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumhighly volatile 538's nowcast now showing hillary at 70%
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-senate-forecast#now
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highly volatile 538's nowcast now showing hillary at 70% (Original Post)
unblock
Sep 2016
OP
That's just in the "now cast". "Polls only" and "polls-plus" still show 60-62%. nt
Guy Whitey Corngood
Sep 2016
#1
Just pointing it out because volatility was mentioned. I myself (I think) am starting
Guy Whitey Corngood
Sep 2016
#4
Ive been following this site. Much less noisy and likely to be final result
smorkingapple
Sep 2016
#8
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,507 posts)1. That's just in the "now cast". "Polls only" and "polls-plus" still show 60-62%. nt
VMA131Marine
(4,158 posts)3. Polls only and polls-plus respond slowly by design.
An extended period with good numbers and they will start to approach the Now-cast number.
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,507 posts)4. Just pointing it out because volatility was mentioned. I myself (I think) am starting
to understand the difference in the models.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)2. Almost back up to pre-9/11 numbers there.
She needs to keep on keeping on. Obama, Obama, and Sanders can really help.
triron
(22,028 posts)5. I'm scratching my head
because Sam Wang dropped HRC from 84 to 82 (bayesian probability). I don't get it!!!
VMA131Marine
(4,158 posts)6. Sam Wang's forecast is based on state polls only
Whereas, 538 uses national polls as well to infer trends. The state polls lag the improved national poll numbers we have been seeing so you saw a dip in HRC probability. She should tick up again as the state polls start to catch up.
MFM008
(19,827 posts)7. It still makes my day
Yesterday morning she was 55.4.
Maggot has to be frantic.
He LIVES by the polls.
FLA. NC. NV back to blue.
Now work on OHIO.
I give a shot about Iowa.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)8. Ive been following this site. Much less noisy and likely to be final result
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
I like the methodology which is slow to react but way more permanent when a shift does occur.
I like the methodology which is slow to react but way more permanent when a shift does occur.