Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:19 PM Sep 2016

DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE

The Huffington Post headline "DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE" should be a wake up call! This is a very well researched and clearly presented premise:


We simulated a Nov. 8 election 100 million times using our state-by-state probabilities. In 13.4 million simulations, Democrats ended up with at least 51 seats. Therefore, we say Democrats have a 13.4 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate.
...
The 2016 Senate consists of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats. (The two independent senators caucus with Democrats.) Voters usually re-elect their incumbent senators, but some seats could flip to the other party.

If four Republican Senate seats flip to Democrats and there are no other changes, the 2017 Senate will be split 50-50.
...
99.0% chance Wisconsin will flip to a Democrat
Russell Feingold (D) won against incumbent Ronald Johnson (R) in 99.9% of our simulations.
81.0% chance Illinois will flip to a Democrat
70.8% chance Nevada will flip to a Republican
Joe Heck (R) won against Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) in 77.5% of our simulations.
53.3% chance Pennsylvania will flip to a Democrat
Kathleen McGinty (D) won against incumbent Patrick Toomey (R) in 63.3% of our simulations.
Toss-up in Indiana
Toss-up in New Hampshire
Incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) won against Maggie Hassan (D) in 53.2% of our simulations.

We are blowing an opportunity to take control of the Senate by focusing too much on a presidential race that is either already won or unwinnable (if America would elect Trump, we have overestimated America and that cannot be fixed in two months, but I believe America will not elect Trump because we're better than that).

We need to stop the fetishistic obsession on the presidential race and refocus on winning the Senate. Regardless of who is elected president, we will not get shit accomplished with a Senate and House both in Republican control.
54 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE SENATE (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 OP
"Mike Pence Refuses To Call David Duke ‘Deplorable’" NCTraveler Sep 2016 #1
The original link was probably from Breitbart RonniePudding Sep 2016 #38
Was actually shocked to read this...... a kennedy Sep 2016 #2
We are missing a golden opportunity to have the presidency and the Senate Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #23
California will stay Dem. TDale313 Sep 2016 #3
Right...we should just concentrate on down ticket races... Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #4
Nevada needs Money and GOTV effort. UCmeNdc Sep 2016 #5
"Already won or unwinnable" what the ever loving fuck does that mean? Seriously? bettyellen Sep 2016 #6
That means Trump is an ass and facts which irrefutably prove that conclusion are already known. Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #21
No- it means you are making totally conflicting claims to suppress GOTV for Hillary. bettyellen Sep 2016 #25
How is emphasizing the need for Democratic wins in Pennsylvania Indiana & New Hampshire Senate races Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #50
If Trump wins the presidency... TwilightZone Sep 2016 #34
He could never say one good thing about Hillary and is now hoping to stop others from GOTV too. bettyellen Sep 2016 #42
Exactly, high Dem/H turnout = electoral landslide = win the Senate radius777 Sep 2016 #47
Oh, you're back now. Codeine Sep 2016 #7
I have no earthly idea why. nt Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #9
They're making a little run on the place today. Codeine Sep 2016 #11
God knows it is boring... Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #12
Yep RonniePudding Sep 2016 #33
That is so true. nt Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #52
And ever so concerned. n/t JTFrog Sep 2016 #14
ROFL alcibiades_mystery Sep 2016 #19
!!!!!!! JoePhilly Sep 2016 #28
Then, I suggest you start volunteering for GOTV MineralMan Sep 2016 #8
I am. I wish more were. Attorney in Texas Sep 2016 #22
More doom and gloom... Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #10
When I read this article I went in search for more - asiliveandbreathe Sep 2016 #13
Aren't you the genius who insisted the FBI would recommend indictment? Codeine Sep 2016 #15
Ah, reads like a Jim Jones Radical. grossproffit Sep 2016 #18
Does not the smell test. Didn't this poster think HRC was going to be indicted? redstateblues Sep 2016 #36
Yes. Among other things. grossproffit Sep 2016 #46
Actually, in NV . . . DarthDem Sep 2016 #16
So how did your poll truthering during the primaries work out? DanTex Sep 2016 #17
I think you are entirely too pessimistic on New Hampshire dsc Sep 2016 #20
8! I find that GWC58 Sep 2016 #30
Payal Des Barres type stuff AngryAmish Sep 2016 #24
"Fetishistic obsession" uh huh. LOL bettyellen Sep 2016 #26
That I like! GWC58 Sep 2016 #31
It's in the OP. TwilightZone Sep 2016 #32
This poster has no interest in the top of the ticket and has publicly declared this. nt. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #44
This is purely about his own wounded feelings. Hates to see support of Hillary. bettyellen Sep 2016 #53
Sorry for the late reply...so true. Demsrule86 Sep 2016 #54
A Democrat will hold Maryland's GWC58 Sep 2016 #45
Yeah... TwilightZone Sep 2016 #37
Uh, the Senate is the Republicans to lose. Democrats aren't "blowing" anything. tonyt53 Sep 2016 #27
Indiana isn't a toss up Cosmocat Sep 2016 #29
Seriously. Bayh is up in every poll. Adrahil Sep 2016 #41
Of course, which makes me doubt radius777 Sep 2016 #49
Honestly, SCliberal91294 Sep 2016 #35
I know that this will come as a shock... TwilightZone Sep 2016 #39
word choice matters Bucky Sep 2016 #40
You will excuse me Coolest Ranger Sep 2016 #43
Here's why those are screwy priorities Proud Public Servant Sep 2016 #48
You better hurry while they're all together RandySF Sep 2016 #51

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
3. California will stay Dem.
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:31 PM
Sep 2016

Boxer retiring, but Nov will feature a race between 2 Dems (Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez) because of our relatively new "top two from Primaries go on to the general regardless of party" system.

Demsrule86

(68,032 posts)
4. Right...we should just concentrate on down ticket races...
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:34 PM
Sep 2016

you know if you can't support the nominee and all...yes I saw the post. We do support the Democratic nominee. How about...we need the presidency...because they can still get judges through if Trump were to win unless you believe we could stonewall for four years.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
6. "Already won or unwinnable" what the ever loving fuck does that mean? Seriously?
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:34 PM
Sep 2016

Do you understand the "support democrats" thing you agreed to? It appears not. Plus- that makes no sense at all. Primary is over dude. Stop embarrassing yourself.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
21. That means Trump is an ass and facts which irrefutably prove that conclusion are already known.
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:40 PM
Sep 2016

If a majority of American voters are going to support Trump despite what is already known, then it is the country that is broken and we cannot fix the country in less than 2 months.

How is "let's take back the Senate" not supporting Democrats?

This has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with the primary. This assumed that either (a) Hillary has already won this race due to the deplorable nature of Trump or (b) the country is filled with more bigots and morons than I ever dreamed and we cannot fix that type of massive flaw in the voting population. I am 99% convinced America will NOT vote for a bully charlatan like Trump. If I did believe America was in such a state of ignorance and meanness, I would have given up hope already.

This has EVERYTHING to do with taking back the Senate.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
25. No- it means you are making totally conflicting claims to suppress GOTV for Hillary.
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:59 PM
Sep 2016

And guess what? Us HRC supporters have been talking about - and working toward taking back the senate and congress for months as well as GOTV for Hillary.

GOTV is tremendously important for Hillary as well as all the candidates. Stop trying to suppress GOTV with bullshit "logic" that it is over. Totally transparent nonsense.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
50. How is emphasizing the need for Democratic wins in Pennsylvania Indiana & New Hampshire Senate races
Tue Sep 13, 2016, 09:49 AM
Sep 2016

suppressing GOTV for Hillary?

Allocating emphasis from races where we are well ahead to increase the focus on toss up races is something we do all the time. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) does this EVERY election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) does this EVERY election.

Spending so much effort in the Clinton-Trump race where Clinton is at least 70% likely to win while we let control of the Senate slip away is a misallocation of resources. Moreover, we are abetting the media's obsession with Trump and its relentless effort to sell its "TV news product" by reporting this not-very-close race as tighter than it really is by buying the phony story that we must focus on this race which we have already won.

This HELPS Trump by keeping him in the media and it HELPS the Republicans keep control of the Senate by distracting us from the races that we need to win in order to enable Hillary to get anything meaningful accomplished.

TwilightZone

(24,747 posts)
34. If Trump wins the presidency...
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:28 PM
Sep 2016

we won't win the Senate.

You understand that those things are related, right? This isn't complicated. It's kind of how things work.

Your premise is ridiculous, by the way. Clinton and other Dems have been raising funds for down-ticket races for months.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
42. He could never say one good thing about Hillary and is now hoping to stop others from GOTV too.
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:58 PM
Sep 2016

Fuck that

radius777

(3,623 posts)
47. Exactly, high Dem/H turnout = electoral landslide = win the Senate
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:37 PM
Sep 2016

since most voters will vote a straight ticket, ie if they come out to vote for the Dem presidential candidate they will likely vote for the competitive down ticket (House, Senate, local, etc) races for Dems as well.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

Codeine

(25,586 posts)
11. They're making a little run on the place today.
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:43 PM
Sep 2016

One of them went off on a nice little tirade about Jews earlier this afternoon. I guess things got a little boring over at FuckStickRadicals.

 

RonniePudding

(889 posts)
33. Yep
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:27 PM
Sep 2016

This one's been "concerned" for awhile now. The OP was saying HRC had no chance to win the GE right up until Bernie conceded. Lots and lots and lots of boundless concern. Always concern. Never anything else.

He also rec'd his own post. A tell if there ever was one.

asiliveandbreathe

(8,143 posts)
13. When I read this article I went in search for more -
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 06:54 PM
Sep 2016
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/9/10/1554435/-Senate-Ratings-2016

Nevada..long write-up - Lean D - with this - CCM should run close to Clinton, and Clinton should win, so Lean D. (CCM - ex-AG Catherine Cortez Masto) -

Louisiana is interesting - but can we pull a D - so much going on there...

As it stands right now - DailyKos D-49 R-51 - with a 46% chance - 1 - just 1 more - for a tie...

DarthDem

(5,240 posts)
16. Actually, in NV . . .
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:17 PM
Sep 2016

(I know this post is from someone who's very, very concerned, but still

Nevada could be very close, but it is notoriously difficult to poll. Some here may remember Harry Reid's elections in 1998 and 2010, where polls often showed him to be trailing, but in fact he won both races (2010 easily, by about 5.5%). The state has only gotten more defiant of analysis since; moreover, it also doesn't get polled very often for whatever reason, adding to the confusion. And the demographics of the state have changed every year as well, in Democrats' favor, of course. Cortez Masto is an excellent candidate and seems to be running a good campaign. That's at worst a tossup. It is in no way a Rethug lean.

By the way, the Ayotte "win simulations" - also replicated at Daily Kos' new polltracker and prediction metric in their attempt to share some of 538's mojo - come from one poll showing Ayotte ahead by an improbable margin. That's what's driving the simulations cited by HuffPo and what caused the Daily Kos thingamabob to change from predicting a 50-50 Senate to its current prediction. Hassan should win comfortably.

The real Senate news today is the DNC making ad buys in MO and NC, where Jason Kander and Deborah Ross have excellent shots at unseating two GOP backbenchers.

dsc

(52,091 posts)
20. I think you are entirely too pessimistic on New Hampshire
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 07:30 PM
Sep 2016

One poll has Ayotte up 8 the rest are close leads for each candidate with Hassan in the lead in more than half of them. You also don't have NC here where Ross is showing signs of closing the race and has been holding Burr to under 50% in all but one poll since September of last year.

TwilightZone

(24,747 posts)
32. It's in the OP.
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:25 PM
Sep 2016

Apparently, we're all obsessed with the presidential race and ignoring down-ticket races.

Except we're not.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
53. This is purely about his own wounded feelings. Hates to see support of Hillary.
Tue Sep 13, 2016, 11:06 AM
Sep 2016

Nothing new here.

Demsrule86

(68,032 posts)
54. Sorry for the late reply...so true.
Sat Sep 17, 2016, 08:47 AM
Sep 2016

It is kind of ironic that after posting about how anyone could get sick...I got sick and ended in the hospital with gall stones and partial bowel obstruction...I am much younger than Hillary, and it put me flat on my back for four days...and I was lucky. Hillary must be an iron woman. I have never been ill or hospitalized before.

Cosmocat

(14,529 posts)
29. Indiana isn't a toss up
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:10 PM
Sep 2016

Bayh is going to win.

I dont agree w your overall premise, these races are most definitely at DEFCON 1. But the make or break is Mcgintey.

radius777

(3,623 posts)
49. Of course, which makes me doubt
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:49 PM
Sep 2016

the article, because Bayh is almost certain to win in Indiana, several polls show him with a big lead.

I agree, McGintey has to win.

The key is turnout for the presidential race, which would help deliver victory in some of these closer senate races. High profile Dem surrogates (Obama, Biden, Michelle, Bill, etc) can definitely help as well.

SCliberal91294

(170 posts)
35. Honestly,
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:31 PM
Sep 2016

I'm only worried about the White House. I think we can make some decent gains, but I think Hillary will be able to compromise at least. There is a strong chance that Trump says 10 more stupid things and no republicans show up to vote for him.

TwilightZone

(24,747 posts)
39. I know that this will come as a shock...
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 08:39 PM
Sep 2016

But the idea is both to win the presidency and make gains in down-ticket races.

It's never been one or the other. Nor should it be.

Coolest Ranger

(2,034 posts)
43. You will excuse me
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:05 PM
Sep 2016

if I don't relax until the morning after. This looks good on paper but I'm worried about turnout

Proud Public Servant

(2,097 posts)
48. Here's why those are screwy priorities
Mon Sep 12, 2016, 09:41 PM
Sep 2016

First of all, gaining the Senate by the slimmest possible margin, while still being the minority in the House, gets us almost nothing.

Second, I suggest you ask both Obama the GOP which is better: to hold the Senate without the presidency, or to hold the presidency without the Senate?

Obama's accomplished a fair bit of his agenda without holding the Senate; the GOP has advanced almost nothing on their agenda because they don't have the White House.

GOTV for the Senate, obviously, but the game is the White House, especially in the era of the imperial presidency. Never forget that.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»DEMS ON TRACK TO BLOW THE...