I DON'T want to be a "debbie downer" but wonder about the latest Huffpollster - real or rubbish

[Farmgirl1961]

HUFFPOLLSTER - Donald Trump could be gaining in key swing states...yes...it's from Quinninpiac for OH and FL I shows a 1 point lead for Trump in OH and Clinton ahead in FL by only 1 point (2-way). Princeton Election Consortium shows Trump leading OH and FL as a toss up. Is this something of a worry?

[pnwmom]

1. Hillary could lose both those states and still win -- but they're both must wins for Trump.nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. Same group of polls show Trump getting smacked around in NC

And what about VA? Or PA for that matter?

What's the use in worrying, anyway?

[Iliyah]

3. FL will go for HRC and so will OH

[synergie]

4. Honestly, do not waste time worrying about the polls.

Contact your local Dem office and see what you can do to help with GOTV and registration efforts. The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day.

[Hekate]

5. +100

[Agschmid]

8. +2

[meow2u3]

6. Quinniapiac (sp?) is very right-leaning

So if you see a poll from there suggesting a tight race, remember that they oversample Trumpanzees.

[riversedge]

12. I think it was Quinniapiac that first

asked the question --Is Hillary a liar?? damn

[CajunBlazer]

7. Nate Silver adjusts poll results for built in bias

And Silver has performed those adjustments for the Oho and Florida Quinnipiac polls. Since Quinnipiac polls are generally biased towards Trump, Silver has adjusted the Florida poll from a tie to a +2 lead for Hillary and the Ohio Quinnipiac poll from +4 lead for Trump to Trump up by +2 before using them in his calculations. These are the links if you are interested.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

If you want to learn more about Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight sites and how to use them, you can go to an article I wrote here;

http://www.cajunscomments.com/how-to-use-nate-silvers-fivethirtyeignt-website-to-gain-current-info-on-the-election/

or here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512405615

By the way, like all the other state polls published in the last few days, these Quinnipiac polls have been factored into Silver's probabilities of Hillary and Trump winning the electoral college. Even with these poll, and others published during the same time period, Hillary probability of winning has gone up 3%, the first solid upward movement upward since the convention, so I wouldn't worry about the Quinnipiac polls if I were you.

[AgadorSparticus]

9. Thanks for the links and reassurance. I was beginning to wonder myself.

It is a little confusing this year as it seems there are so many polls now and I can't keep up with all of them.

[CajunBlazer]

11. If you see state polls that concern you.....

....as I point out in my articles go to Nate Silver's main page at:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

There you will see a map. If you hoover your cursor over a state you will see the probabilities that the candidates will win that state and the number of electoral votes. Click a state it will bring you to the state page. On that page there will be a lot of good info about the state of the election in the state (see my articles for explanations). Scroll down and you will see the recent polls for the state - including the one you are interested in. There you will see the weight Nate give to the poll - the more weight the better the poll - and the amount Nate adjusts the poll. (Note it sounds contradictory, but a very good poll can have bias - in which case Nate would give it a lot of weight after he adjusts for the know bias.) You can also see how a particular poll is affecting the probability of Hillary or Trump winning the state.

Rather than wondering about a new poll, just look it up for yourself.

Again, if you are interested in this stuff, you can learn more about how to use Silver's site here:

http://www.cajunscomments.com/how-to-use-nate-silvers-fivethirtyeignt-website-to-gain-current-info-on-the-election/

You probably won't be into this stuff as much as I am, because I just love this stuff. If you ever have any questions about a particular poll, send me a private message.

[AgadorSparticus]

13. You're right. I'm not THAT into it. I just want to know what to believe and not believe.

You are awesome! Thanks for the links. I will go look at them tonight. And I will pm if I have any questions.

[CajunBlazer]

14. Glad I could help

[struggle4progress]

10. Moral: We can win if we do the work. We can lose if we goof off.

[Hekate]

15. Have you seen this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512408728